Hot start or superior team?

[DrungoHazewood]

This is better.

The Cincinnati Red Stockings went undefeated with a 57-0 season record in 1869. They were the first and only professional team to go undefeated, but not the first in the history of baseball.

Yea but that team was the first professional team. At all. So think about that. A world of unaffiliated semi-pro and amateur teams with no leagues to operate under. One team gets the wise idea to hire all the best players they can find and pay them to play ball. Then go on a barnstorming tour against town teams and pickup teams and Jebediah's South Pittsburg Nine. This was 1869 so they probably went over basic rules before the game.

[Filmstudy]

Why don't we just wait until the season is complete and then make our predictions about how it will turn out for the Orioles?

They are called predictions for a reason, and it is proper to use all available evidence to continually assess. 7-0 with the way the O's have done it provides something more prospectively than 3.5 wins above an 81-win expectation. So whatever credibility you want to assign to their wins to date and what their play to date may portend, it's reasonable to make predictions now.

[SilentJames]

An ESPN article that is putting a positive spin on the O's start. I did not know that Davis' homerun was the first that Kimbrel has ever allowed with a runner in scoring position.

I like this quote. "Can you say LONGBALLtimore?"

http://espn.go.com/blog/Baltimore-Orioles/post/_/id/652/maybe-its-time-to-start-believing-in-the-baltimore-orioles

The only thing I take umbrage with is the idea that Gallardo "got shelled," I don't think he did. He gave up a series of singles, and the double he gave up was a pop-fly against the shift that just barely stayed fair - not exactly a lucky bounce for him. Two of his five innings were hitless (with an error putting a man on in one) and the other he gave up a groundball single. He only walked one batter and only gave up one extra-base hit, the aforementioned popfly ground rule double. He had a rough first inning and then promptly settled down pitched well.

'It seems that people are so eager to see this staff fail that they are really champing at the bit to pounce on any singular struggle and simply wipe away any success.

Gallardo didn't pitch great, but he hardly got smacked around the park.

[SilentJames]

BTW, it is totally possible that this is both a good team AND they are having a hot start.

[CallMeBrooksie]

An ESPN article that is putting a positive spin on the O's start. I did not know that Davis' homerun was the first that Kimbrel has ever allowed with a runner in scoring position.

I like this quote. "Can you say LONGBALLtimore?"

http://espn.go.com/blog/Baltimore-Orioles/post/_/id/652/maybe-its-time-to-start-believing-in-the-baltimore-orioles

Meh.. I read a lot of back-handed compliments through my orange-colored glasses.

"entered the season with grave expectations..."

"two seemingly inconceivable wins against the Boston Red sox later..." Inconceivable? Have you never actually watched baseball before?

"as inexperienced starter Mike Wright -- who on paper was no match for Boston righty Clay Buchholz -- got roughed up early..." Look, I get that Mike Wright is unproven... but Clay Buchholz is no ace.

[weams]

Why don't we just wait until the season is complete and then make our predictions about how it will turn out for the Orioles?

They are called predictions for a reason, and it is proper to use all available evidence to continually assess. 7-0 with the way the O's have done it provides something more prospectively than 3.5 wins above an 81-win expectation. So whatever credibility you want to assign to their wins to date and what their play to date may portend, it's reasonable to make predictions now.

Why is there any credibility to the prediction fountain in the first place? It's not real data.

[24fps]

BTW, it is totally possible that this is both a good team AND they are having a hot start.

Hmmmm...needs a hook IMO.

NEWSFLASH: Once again the Orioles performed as expected.

Nope, nope, that's not it...

[weams]

Hmmmm...needs a hook IMO.

NEWSFLASH: Once again the Orioles performed as expected.

Nope, nope, that's not it...

"Freakishly bad Baltimore Orioles outperform their Pythagorean and lead almost AL Champion Toronto White Shirts by four and one half game during first week of Beeg Papi's farewell celebration season."

There - is that enough for you? What. You say no Jeter reference? Back to the drawing board.

[Filmstudy]

Why is there any credibility to the prediction fountain in the first place? It's not real data.

Not sure what definition of real data you are using, but I'd honestly like to know. And that's not a comment from someone with bristled back hairs, just an interested actuary.

[bluedog]

Yea but that team was the first professional team. At all. So think about that. A world of unaffiliated semi-pro and amateur teams with no leagues to operate under. One team gets the wise idea to hire all the best players they can find and pay them to play ball. Then go on a barnstorming tour against town teams and pickup teams and Jebediah's South Pittsburg Nine. This was 1869 so they probably went over basic rules before the game.

They were basically the Harlem Globetrotters and everyone else were the Washington Generals.

[spiritof66]

Here's why I find the Orioles' hot start very encouraging. The Orioles are winning games in ways that are pretty closely in line with what the cautiously optimistic among us had expected: scoring lots of runs (tied for first in the AL) and hitting plenty of HRs (first in the AL), solid defense (eighth in defensive efficiency ratio) but not as good as in recent years or as good as it should be, especially after Jones returns, very good relief pitching (fourth in relievers' ERA), and starters not going deep into games (twelfth in starters' innings) while doing a better job in preventing runs than expected (sixth in ERA) though not that much better. The defense should get better, and the SP is likely to get worse.

The fact is that this lineup can really hit with power (even without Jones), and it puts a lot of pressure on pitchers, RHs as well as LHs. While lots of guys are out-performing what their full-season statistics will be, the only big positives that have surprised me so far are Rickard continuing his hot hitting, and the plate patience and walks (eighth in the AL). The patience may be the result of pitchers not wanting to leave the ball over the heart of the plate to this lineup.

What I'd say about this team is not that it's a play-off or "superior" team, but that its strategy for success is working in a way that looks inconsistent with the 78-win last-place finisher that was predicted. The performance we've seen is largely repeatable, so long as the injuries are manageable and DD and Buck find a way to bring in enough bullpen arms to cover the high number of innings demanded by the SPs.

[Barnfather]

They did end the season with a 5 game win streak.

So technically, we are on a 12 game win streak

[weams]

Not sure what definition of real data you are using, but I'd honestly like to know. And that's not a comment from someone with bristled back hairs, just an interested actuary.

Has there ever been a study to solidify the results of the predictive statistical models? If so, I'd have an interest in seeing it. I assume that all the articles written about these predictives are for sport or folly. Unlike actuarial efforts.

[weams]

So technically, we are on a 12 game win streak

But Chen was on that team.

[weams]

"How to talk to your kids about an undefeated Orioles team."

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baltimore-sports-blog/bal-how-to-talk-to-your-kids-about-an-undefeated-orioles-team-20160412-story.html