Looking around the AL East on Memorial Day

[Frobby]

Memorial Day is usually a good time to take stock of things. Statistical trends are a bit more credible by now and the schedule has usually evened out a bit. So, let's see what we have.

Standings

BOS 30-20

BAL 28-20

TOR 26-26

NYY 24-25

TBR 22-26

Run differential

BOS +71

BAL +17

TBR +14

TOR +3

NYY -19

Runs scored/game

BOS 5.90

BAL 4.46

TOR 4.17

TBR 4.15

NYY 3.88

Runs allowed/game

TBR 4.06

BAL 4.10

TOR 4.12

NYY 4.27

BOS 4.48

Starter ERA

TOR 3.70

TBR 3.99

NYY 4.46

BAL 4.58

BOS 4.68

Reliever ERA

BAL 2.50

BOS 3.34

NYY 3.45

TOR 3.78

TBR 3.85

Here are my thoughts on the five teams.

Boston: So far they have been an offensive powerhouse, and their 30-20 record is fully justified by their +71 run differential. Personally, I think they are a very good offensive team but have probably overperformed on offense at 5.90 runs per game, and that figure should drop as the season progresses. I expect them to be contenders all season and I would say they are the favorites based on what I expected going into the season and what I've seen so far. However, the starting pitching is still very shaky and we have to see how that holds up when the offense cools a little.

Baltimore: The offense has been about what I expected, and the pitching a fair amount better than what I expected. The starting pitching has done a bit better than I'd expected despite shaky performances from Gallardo (now on the DL) and Ubaldo, our two highest-paid starters; but the bullpen has been downright ridiculous and will probably experience some slippage at some point. We've outperformed our Pythag by a bit and have been a .500ish team since the season-opening 7 game win streak. We're better at home (+9) than on the road (-1), but a better road team than last year. Some guys have hit better than expected, others worse, but overall the offense is about what I'd thought. I'm not convinced we'll continue to play .583 baseball but hoping we can continue to play a bit above .500 on a steady basis and keep grinding towards 90+ wins.

Toronto: The bats aren't what they were last year for the Jays, and I have to think they are go on an offensive tear at some point. Enacarnacion (.757 OPS), Tulowitzki (.673), and Martin (.526) all figure to pick up the pace. Their rotation has been healthy and very solid. I see them as a dangerous team, remembering that they only played .500 ball through the first 102 games last year before getting insanely hot for the final 60 (42-18). The offense will have a torrid streak at some point and they are capable of winning 8 of 10 or 12 of 15, if not better than that, at pretty much any point.

New York: They've been hot lately to climb close to .500, but they have the worst run differential in the division and just don't look impressive. Last year they were carried by surprisingly good seasons from aging stars ARod and Teixeira, but this year both look very mortal. The one thing you can say for this team is that if they have the lead after six innings, they can throw Betances, Miller and Chapman at you, so they figure to outperform their Pythag all year, as Girardi's teams consistently have done in the last several years. Their other relievers aren't good and the Yanks are in trouble whenever a starter has an earliesh exit.

Tampa Bay: This team has had a bit of a makeover, hitting homers at a surprisingly high rate so far this year (they've actually outhomered the Orioles, 70-69 through 48 games for each team). And it's not any one guy -- the team leaders are Longoria and Souza, with 9 each. The starting pitching has been good but not as dominant as usual, with Archer and Moore both off to slow starts. The Rays are underperforming their Pythag and with Boxberger about to return to shore up their bullpen, I can see them moving up the ladder.

Overall: Everyone expected a dogfight in the AL East, and I think that's what we're going to get. The division is 13 games over .500, the best in baseball, with the worst team only 4 games under .500. There are no easy teams to beat in the AL East. The last two years, the division winner only played .500ish ball over the first two months of the year, so I think all five teams are in the race right now. I have trouble seeing a path for the Yankees to win enough games to make the playoffs, but I could see any of the other four doing it. It should be an exciting race all the way in 2016.

[Spy Fox]

It's going to be a great race.

As for the O's perspective, our start has given us a good chance to succeed. But I think we will have to play a bit better moving forward. We've played less than a third of our games against AL East teams, but over the course of the season almost 50% of our games are against the divisional opponents. That means a lot of tough games ahead.

[Frobby]

Memorial Day is usually a good time to take stock of things. Statistical trends are a bit more credible by now and the schedule has usually evened out a bit. So, let's see what we have.

Standings

BOS 30-20 [6-6]

BAL 28-20 [8-6]

TOR 26-26 [9-4]

NYY 24-25 [7-7]

TBR 22-26 [7-6]

Record from Memorial Day through June 12 in brackets. The AL East has been playing well, and Toronto is making its move. It's still anybody's race.

[ACDC27]

Well luckily for us, no one in the division has had the Sp set the world on fire. I think for the top 3 O's, Sox and Jays it will be a slugfest all year.

[eddie83]

Important week of games in the division. Orioles need to find a way to hold on until, if it ever does, the pitching settles down.

I think the division gets at least one wild card for sure with an outside chance at 2. The Central is starting to get competitive, Texas right now is better than Seattle. How we play in the division will be very important. The team is showing some fight in them which is good to see.

[Frobby]

Boston: So far they have been an offensive powerhouse, and their 30-20 record is fully justified by their +71 run differential. Personally, I think they are a very good offensive team but have probably overperformed on offense at 5.90 runs per game, and that figure should drop as the season progresses. I expect them to be contenders all season and I would say they are the favorites based on what I expected going into the season and what I've seen so far. However, the starting pitching is still very shaky and we have to see how that holds up when the offense cools a little.

So, I guess we're finding out. The Red Sox are averaging a still-healthy 4.83 runs/game in June, but they're 9-14 for the month.

[MDtransplant757]

So, I guess we're finding out. The Red Sox are averaging a still-healthy 4.83 runs/game in June, but they're 9-14 for the month.

Their pitching is killing them big time.

[LookitsPuck]

Boston Red Sox

2015

Runs per game: 4.62

Runs allowed per game: 4.65

2016

Runs per game: 5.59

Runs allowed per game: 4.68

So pitching is just as bad this year. But offense is much better. They'll add another starter and be primed to turn it around (a bit).

[TradeAngelos]

Their pitching is killing them big time.

55m doesn't buy much these days in the pitching market I guess.

[MDtransplant757]

Boston Red Sox

2015

Runs per game: 4.62

Runs allowed per game: 4.65

2016

Runs per game: 5.59

Runs allowed per game: 4.68

So pitching is just as bad this year. But offense is much better. They'll add another starter and be primed to turn it around (a bit).

I think they aren't done yet. I pray to god they get a Gerado Parra type of guy when it comes to pitching, however

[backwardsk]

Boston Red Sox

2015

Runs per game: 4.62

Runs allowed per game: 4.65

2016

Runs per game: 5.59

Runs allowed per game: 4.68

So pitching is just as bad this year. But offense is much better. They'll add another starter and be primed to turn it around (a bit).

It's not trending in a good way for them. For June, they are scoring 4.8 runs a game and giving up 5.7. (Back of the napkin math)

[O's are Legends]

Being extremely productive at work watching the Price is right for the Rays in the 3rd inning as they scored 4 off the highly paid ace.

Maybe time for meeting number two and for Pedroia to yell at Price.