Question about WAR (Machado vs. Trout)

[nickr4444]

Just looked at ESPNs stats and noticed that Trout leads Machado 4.4 - 3.9. Can anyone explain how this is? Looking across stats, Machado leads in every stat except RBI's and OBP while playing a good chunk of the year at the more demanding/important position.

Thanks!

[weams]

Just looked at ESPNs stats and noticed that Trout leads Machado 4.4 - 3.9. Can anyone explain how this is? Looking across stats, Machado leads in every stat except RBI's and OBP while playing a good chunk of the year at the more demanding/important position.

Thanks!

Machado

Value

Postseason | Projections | Minor Leagues | Regular Season

Season Team Batting Base Running Fielding Positional Offense Defense League Replacement RAR WAR Dollars Salary

2012 Orioles -0.7 0.3 5.3 0.8 -0.4 6.1 0.7 6.0 12.4 1.3 $8.4

2013 Orioles 1.4 -1.1 31.2 2.4 0.3 33.6 3.1 20.3 57.3 6.2 $45.8

2014 Orioles 4.0 -2.4 6.5 1.3 1.6 7.8 1.4 10.0 20.8 2.3 $17.4

2015 Orioles 28.0 1.1 8.6 2.6 29.1 11.2 2.6 20.8 63.7 6.8 $54.1

2016 Orioles 22.7 -0.2 3.5 2.4 22.5 5.9 1.2 9.5 39.1 4.0 $32.2

Trout

Value

Postseason | Projections | Minor Leagues | Regular Season

Season Team Batting Base Running Fielding Positional Offense Defense League Replacement RAR WAR Dollars Salary

2011 Angels -2.0 1.8 3.2 -0.8 -0.2 2.4 0.4 3.9 6.6 0.7 $5.3

2012 Angels 50.1 14.1 13.3 -0.2 64.2 13.0 2.3 18.9 98.4 10.3 $67.0

2013 Angels 62.2 7.8 4.4 -1.2 70.1 3.3 3.1 20.5 96.9 10.5 $77.4

2014 Angels 52.1 6.5 -9.8 1.4 58.6 -8.4 2.9 19.9 72.9 8.0 $60.8

2015 Angels 57.1 3.3 0.2 1.9 60.4 2.1 2.5 19.9 85.0 9.0 $72.1

2016 Angels 24.5 3.2 3.0 0.5 27.7 3.5 1.3 9.9 42.4 4.4 $35.0

[MurphDogg]

Trout has played 5 more games and is a better baserunner. That seems to make up much of the slight difference.

[Aristotelian]

I think Manny hurt his defensive numbers playing SS while Hardy was out. He makes a huge dWAR difference at 3B.

[bpilktree]

I think Manny hurt his defensive numbers playing SS while Hardy was out. He makes a huge dWAR difference at 3B.

Manny has a better defensive war then Trout whi is at replacement level. Center field has some very light hitting players in todays game while third base is rather stacked right now so Manny has to put up better numbers by a rather large margin to have a higher war.

[Aristotelian]

Manny has a better defensive war then Trout whi is at replacement level. Center field has some very light hitting players in todays game while third base is rather stacked right now so Manny has to put up better numbers by a rather large margin to have a higher war.

OK, but my point was that Manny is at an even further disadvantage because he played over a month at a new position that he is not as good at relative to the league. For example, he has put up 2.9 UZR/150 at SS this year vs 10.9 UZR/150 at 3B (17.4 UZR/150 career average at 3B). As Manny plays more games at 3B this year, I expect his WAR will improve.

[Phantom]

Trout has played 5 more games and is a better baserunner. That seems to make up much of the slight difference.

This is it right here.

[TradeAngelos]

Someone please enlighten me as to how baserunning is factored into WAR.

As far as the games played, we are talking about a 4% difference. Big deal.

[ArtVanDelay]

Someone please enlighten me as to how baserunning is factored into WAR.

As far as the games played, we are talking about a 4% difference. Big deal.

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/ubr/

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/wsb/

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/wgdp/

UBR is included in WAR. It is added with wSB and wGDP to make up the ?BsR? column in FanGraphs player profiles.

[Phantom]

Someone please enlighten me as to how baserunning is factored into WAR.

As far as the games played, we are talking about a 4% difference. Big deal.

When you are as valuable as a player like Machado/Trout, a good week of games can be half a win.

From fangraphs:

Base Running (BsR) is FanGraphs? all encompassing base running statistic that turns stolen bases, caught stealings, and other base running plays (taking extra bases, being thrown out on the bases, etc) into runs above and below average. It is the combination of Weighted Stolen Base Runs (wSB), Weighted Grounded Into Double Play Runs (wGDP), and Ultimate Base Running (UBR) which are all available on the leaderboards and player pages.

BsR serves as the base running component of Wins Above Replacement (WAR) and provides a lot more information than simply looking at a player?s stolen base total if you are interested in judging a player?s base running performance.

For the full calculation, see here:

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/bsr/

[MurphDogg]

Someone please enlighten me as to how baserunning is factored into WAR.

As far as the games played, we are talking about a 4% difference. Big deal.

WAR is a counting stat. 5 games is not 4% of 76/71 (Trout's games played over Machado's games played). It is 7 percent. If you multiply Machado's fWAR by 1.07, his fWAR jumps from 4.0 to 4.3 or just short of Trout's 4.4. This is how math and counting stats work.

Machado is 0.2 runs below average in baserunning whereas Trout is 3.2 runs above average. Approximately 10 runs is considered 1 unit of fWAR.

[TradeAngelos]

WAR is a counting stat. 5 games is not 4% of 76/71 (Trout's games played over Machado's games played). It is 7 percent. If you multiply Machado's fWAR by 1.07, his fWAR jumps from 4.0 to 4.3 or just short of Trout's 4.4. This is how math and counting stats work.

Machado is 0.2 runs below average in baserunning whereas Trout is 3.2 runs above average. Approximately 10 runs is considered 1 unit of fWAR.

So baserunning/missing games is worth about .6. Got it.

[MurphDogg]

Where are you getting .6 from? Math does not seem to be a strength of yours.

Close enough, assuming (as I did) he means the combined difference is worth about 0.6. 0.3 for the difference in games and 0.34 for the difference in baserunning.

[atomic]

Park Factors: Over 100 favors batters, under 100 favors pitchers.

Angel Stadium of Anaheim:

multi-year: Batting - 95, Pitching - 95

Orioles Park at Camden Yards:

multi-year: Batting - 104, Pitching - 103

Baseball Reference use multi-year park factors in calculating WAR.

[ArtVanDelay]

Close enough, assuming (as I did) he means the combined difference is worth about 0.6. 0.3 for the difference in games and 0.34 for the difference in baserunning.

Well obviously math is not a strength of mine, either.

I thought he was referring to the .5 difference between Machado and Trout.