BP: Baltimore's Annual Surprise Party

[Can_of_corn]

Results in a "massive disappointment"?

Was their word choice not mine.

Everyone else was looking strictly at the offense I was just mentioning that defense is part of the equation as well.

[backwardsk]

Was their word choice not mine.

Everyone else was looking strictly at the offense I was just mentioning that defense is part of the equation as well.

I don't think there is any evidence in his offense, defense, baserunning, or intangibles that would lead one to conclude "massive disappointment" or even "mild disappointment". Unless this article was drafted in May.

[Can_of_corn]

I don't think there is any evidence in his offense, defense, baserunning, or intangibles that would lead one to conclude "massive disappointment" or even "mild disappointment". Unless this article was drafted in May.

/shrug

He's at .5 fWAR and .9 rWAR both of which are significantly lower than the pace he has set in recent years. If a 3.5 win player has an under 2 win I would view that as being disappointing.

[MagicBird]

This is just asinine. I dunno how anyone with any sense could say we'd be in last place in the AL East, and especially have the worst record in the AL. That's just dumb. I could understand saying we're a 75-80 win team, but worst record in the AL? Come on. We have one of the best offenses in the league and one of the top 'pens in the league. That alone is enough to keep those two things from happening even if the wheels fell off somewhat like last year. IMO this teams floor is 75 wins, and it's ceiling is somewhere around 90.

Only idiots that dont follow the team would project them to finish last. There was plenty of doom and gloom around here coming into the season, but its just typical, even if not accurate. I fully expected the Orioles to compete all season and to be the division winners. Its no surprise to me.

[atomic]

It is good they don't understand how it works. That way the O's can get guys that fit their formula for victory without other teams knowing how it is done.

[Can_of_corn]

Only idiots that dont follow the team would project them to finish last. There was plenty of doom and gloom around here coming into the season, but its just typical, even if not accurate. I fully expected the Orioles to compete all season and to be the division winners. Its no surprise to me.

Please.

You could have made a defensible case for any of the five AL East teams to finish last this season.

To call anyone that picked the O's to finish last idiots is uncalled for.

[Can_of_corn]

It is good they don't understand how it works. That way the O's can get guys that fit their formula for victory without other teams knowing how it is done.

Just because BP doesn't understand something doesn't mean that the actual competition doesn't.

I am guessing teams have access to data that BP doesn't.

[backwardsk]

/shrug

He's at .5 fWAR and .9 rWAR both of which are significantly lower than the pace he has set in recent years. If a 3.5 win player has an under 2 win I would view that as being disappointing.

We'll see where his WAR ends up this season and if he can keep up his June pace. He has a strong chance at career highs in counting stats like HR, BB, and RBI and his OPS is in line with his career norm.

[Can_of_corn]

We'll see where his WAR ends up this season and if he can keep up his June pace. He has a strong chance at career highs in counting stats like HR, BB, and RBI and his OPS is in line with his career norm.

Obviously.

But his torrid June does not erase his early season struggles.

Jones was bad, he's had a lot of work digging himself out of that hole.

[backwardsk]

Obviously.

But his torrid June does not erase his early season struggles.

Jones was bad, he's had a lot of work digging himself out of that hole.

You don't think his struggles weren't physical from being hurt? Do you see that repeating in the second half?

[Can_of_corn]

You don't think his struggles weren't physical from being hurt? Do you see that repeating in the second half?

I think some of it, maybe a lot of it, was bad luck.

As for being hurt, I fully expect Jones to play a significant number of games while injured.

He has a desire to play through injuries and Buck is willing to let him.

Every year he gets banged up and he plays.

Commendable on his part but it does hurt his numbers.

He's certainly got more Cal Jr in him than Fred Lynn.

[esmd]

Only idiots that dont follow the team would project them to finish last. There was plenty of doom and gloom around here coming into the season, but its just typical, even if not accurate. I fully expected the Orioles to compete all season and to be the division winners. Its no surprise to me.

I wouldn't say I expected 15 games over .500 and leading the division at this point, nor a division championship. But I thought this team was definitely better than NYY and TB, and probably better than Boston (they've surprised me). I figured worst case, we're a couple games under .500 in 3rd or 4th place, best case, we win 88-92 and get a WC. Toronto has surprised me a bit with their dropoff.

At this point, I think this is starting to look a lot like 2014, and I think we take the division. That's assuming our SP shores up some in the 2nd half.

But yeah, the prognosticators who continually crap on this team can suck it, lol.

[TouchemAll]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=29668

The rest of the article is worth reading, but the bottom line is, BP can't figure us out.

Yeah that was good your right they are truly stumped. :laughlol: Actually watching our starters some days makes me wonder too.

We swing a mean bat that can explode on teams at any time like no other, and have a stopper BP that usually wipes away all our starters sins, that's this teams identity it's really not all that hard now is it.

[CallMeBrooksie]

You don't think his struggles weren't physical from being hurt? Do you see that repeating in the second half?

I certainly don't think anyone reasonably expects him to keep up his June pace for the rest of the season, healthy or not.

[Frobby]

In case anyone has forgotten:

Everyone's favorite projection system.

TB 91-71

BOS 88-74

TOR 86-76

NY 85-77

BAL 72-90

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/151731-PECOTA-projections/page7?highlight=pecota

2013: 74-88

2014: 75-87

2015: 78-84

2016: 72-90

2015 wasn't that far off, though still too pessimistic. But this is the second year in a row they have predicted that Tampa will outscore us. We outscored Tampa by 69 runs last year. I really don't know what they're smoking.