Trade Target: Ervin Santana

[weams]

Since we had scouts at his game the other day, I would say yes:) I shot Weams a text with the info.

And you are right, Dan won't be here in five years.

[weams]

Right now, I'd take CARLOS Santana (the musician) the way our guys have been pitching.

I agree with Aristotlian above. Santana isn't really a difference maker, and he makes too much money. We need to find the answer within the organization, hold on to what we have and hope that some of these guys can contribute now.

[bpilktree]

Santana is throwing a gem today. 7IP 1 h 0ER so far

[weams]

Santana is throwing a gem today. 7IP 1 h 0ER so far

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Yep. Who goes?

[Phantom]

So now we are looking to give up assets to bring in a guy with a 4.50 ERA and 4.64 xFip?

I'd much rather run Worely (or Wright/Wilson until he's healthy) out there and throw Ubaldo in the pen and hope he turns it around.

[bpilktree]

So now we are looking to give up assets to bring in a guy with a 4.50 ERA and 4.64 xFip?

I'd much rather run Worely (or Wright/Wilson until he's healthy) out there and throw Ubaldo in the pen and hope he turns it around.

That still leaves you no starter at the 5 spot. We need to find atleast one starter from outside the organization. I am not saying Santana is the guy but the prospect cost would be lower then some other names out there.

[Rene88]

Why? He's not even pitching that well despite pitching half his games in a pitcher friendly ballpark.

Because DD loves subpar pitchers with horrendous contracts. If we have to give up prospects too, even better!

Sigh...

[backwardsk]

Because DD loves subpar pitchers with horrendous contracts. If we have to give up prospects too, even better!

Sigh...

His ERA is now 4.06. I'm sure we have six or seven guys better.

[crawjo]

I think he's a notch above Jimenez, Wright, and Wilson. So he has to be considered.

[LookitsPuck]

I wanted him over Ubaldo. Back then wrote this:

With the draft pick loss associated to the signing of Ervin Santana and Ubaldo Jimenez...it'll end up driving down their costs. If you flash back to November of 2013, there were talks that Santana could be deserving of a $100 million contract. I contend that he'll be lucky to get a $40-$50 million contract.

I did a little digging around...and SB Nation had an interesting article titledErvin Santana free agency: Pitcher unlikely to beat Garza's deal. And in that article the subtitle explains it all: Santana may have to settle for as little as as three years and $40 million. I think if you look at Garza's contract (4 year, $50 million???$12.5 million annually)...then you can see what the max that Santana will get. Similar ages. Similar performing pitchers. The one thing Santana has going for him that Garza doesn't is durability. Either way, I expect Santana to sign somewhere for something like 3 year/$36 million. And while that's generally a bargain in an overly inflated market (driven by the increase in TV money for MLB teams)....it's $12 million a year and the loss of a draft pick. Aside from 2012, Santana has been worth about 3 WAR (2010, 2011, 2013).

But there are some strong things going right for Santana in the performance department. Over the last 4 years:

210 IP/year

32 games/year

6 2/3 IP/game

1.238 WHIP

101 ERA+

3.87 ERA

Generally speaking, those are solid numbers. If you leave out his 2012 season, his ERA's are as follows: 3.92 (2010), 3.38 (2011), 3.24 (2012). For the most part Santana has been a model of consistency and durability over the last 4 years.

Now, let's look to the other draft pick loss candidate. Ubaldo Jimenez. 30 years old. Coming off a bounce back year in 2013 in which he put up the following numbers: 3.30 ERA, 1.330 WHIP, 9.6 SO/9, 3.9 BB/9, 114 ERA+. All pretty good numbers...aside from his 5 2/3 IP average. And his near 4 BB/9 walk rate.

Digging in a little deeper, his 3 year snapshot doesn't look nearly as good:

183 IP/year

32 games/year

5 2/3 IP/game

1.446 WHIP

90 ERA+

4.45 ERA

The trick with Ubaldo is determining whether or not his 2013 was an aberration...or reverting back to his form with the Rockies (2007-2010). And the other problems being his inability to pitch deep into games. And his high walk rate. If you recall earlier, the Orioles pitching staff did not pitch deep into games in 2013 (averaging 5 2/3 IP per start). And while Ubaldo's strikeout rate would be very welcome....his walks and inability to go deep will end up hurting the O's. In addition the question mark of consistency will come into play. One thing is for sure about Ubaldo: he has a higher ceiling. But Ubaldo isn't a guy you bank on for teams like the O's. If the O's already had a pitcher like James Shields...sure...go get Ubaldo. But not in this situation.

So, I think if the choice was between Ervin Santana and Ubaldo Jimenez...I'd say lock up Ervin Santana.

But there are other options. Options that don't require the loss of a draft pick.

[Rene88]

His ERA is now 4.06. I'm sure we have six or seven guys better.

Nope we don't but I'd roll with Bundy and Despaigne and hope Wright improves.

He is in a pitchers park with a bad contract and coming off steroid suspension. Sounds like a winner with DD's trade prowess. No thanks, flirting with disaster.

[Rene88]

I wanted him over Ubaldo. Back then wrote this:

Yep, so did I.

We would have lost him to steroids. Regardless, neither were good choices.

[El Gordo]

I'd rather have Hellickson

[Cakes2Kakes]

I'd rather have Rich Hill!

[Rene88]

I'd rather have Bundy/Despaigne and Wright and what's left of our farm system.