Which Draft Prospect Would You Not Want?

[Greg Pappas]

Which of the following players would you be disappointed with if the O's draft them with overall pick#4?

You can select as many as you like. Votes are public.

[markpolis]

Which of the following players would you be disappointed with if the O's draft them withoverall pick#4?

You can select as many as you like.

Were you going to supply a list?

EDIT: Thanks Greg. I wasn't sure, but I thought you would. ;-)

[Greg Pappas]

Were you going to supply a list?

I did, but as usual the post posted before the list was completed.

[Hank Scorpio]

We're really in a good spot this year.

I'm pretty confident we'll feel very good about our 1st round pick this year. There are a lot of attractive names on that list. The only one I don't like is Posey, and that's only because we've got Wieters on the way.

[markpolis]

Buster Posey. The latest helium player rocketing up the charts.

IMO, it makes zero sense for the Orioles to select Posey at #4.

We drafted Wieters last year to be the catcher of the future and the very next year we are going to draft another catcher with the fourth pick in the draft? I understand that due to Wieters size he eventually may have to move from catcher. That's eventually, next anytime soon. Wieters should be the team's catcher for the next 8-10 years... at least.

Do you draft Posey to platoon with Wieters? That's ridiculous. You don't waste the #4 overall pick in the draft for a player you project as a platoon player.

If we didn't have Wieters then I would strongly consider Posey. Posey is a very solid player, but is he better than Pedro Alvarez, Tim Beckham or even Gordon Beckham for that matter?

The Orioles are set at the catcher spot for the next ten years. I'm sure Joe Jordon is not even remotely considering Posey. This organization still has a lot of holes to fill, BUT the catcher position is not one of them.

IMO, to draft another catcher in the first round would be a wasted pick.

[hoosiers]

No issue with Posey. Seems like a strong talent who would have a lot of value if he pans out.

Crow is the only one I would be disappointed in drafting.

[markpolis]

No issue with Posey. Seems like a strong talent who would have a lot of value if he pans out.

Crow is the only one I would be disappointed in drafting.

I agree with Crow.

Where would you play Posey? What exactly is his "value"? Are you drafting him to potentially trade him in the near future? Is his "value" that much greater than Alvarez, Beckham (Tim and Gordon) and Smoak? Does he project well at other positions? Do you draft him and move Wieters to 1B, thus intimating Wieters (as a catcher) is a failure? Do we really need to stockpile the catching position when we have so many other holes to fill?

I really don't understand why we should pick Posey and why people would be ok with Posey as our pick?

[Stotle]

Buster Posey. The latest helium player rocketing up the charts.

IMO, it makes zero sense for the Orioles to select Posey at #4.

We drafted Wieters last year to be the catcher of the future and the very next year we are going to draft another catcher with the fourth pick in the draft? I understand that due to Wieters size he eventually may have to move from catcher. That's eventually, next anytime soon. Wieters should be the team's catcher for the next 8-10 years... at least.

Do you draft Posey to platoon with Wieters? That's ridiculous. You don't waste the #4 overall pick in the draft for a player you project as a platoon player.

If we didn't have Wieters then I would strongly consider Posey. Posey is a very solid player, but is he better than Pedro Alvarez, Tim Beckham or even Gordon Beckham for that matter?

The Orioles are set at the catcher spot for the next ten years. I'm sure Joe Jordon is not even remotely considering Posey. This organization still has a lot of holes to fill, BUT the catcher position is not one of them.

IMO, to draft another catcher in the first round would be a wasted pick.

I think if you draft him you end up switching Wieters to 1b/dh at the ML-level.

I think he is better than Gordon Beckham. I don't think he is better than Alvarez. He may be a better bet to stay healthy behind the plate -- and Wieters's bat is really what I want to preserve.

[Stotle]

I agree with Crow.

Where would you play Posey? What exactly is his "value"? Are you drafting him to potentially trade him in the near future? Is his "value" that much greater than Alvarez, Beckham (Tim and Gordon) and Smoak? Does he project well at other positions? Do you draft him and move Wieters to 1B, thus intimating Wieters (as a catcher) is a failure? Do we really need to stockpile the catching position when we have so many other holes to fill?

I really don't understand why we should pick Posey and why people would be ok with Posey as our pick?

Posey is a great bat and a great catcher. Wieters's size may eventually be an issue. Wieters's bat is so good do you want to risk him playing 120 games a year due to injury and standard days off? I think there is an easy case to be made for Posey -- I also think he is a safer bet than Beckham. In fact, if you want to play up Alvarez's injury, you can make the case that Posey is actually the safest college bat in the draft.

[Stotle]

I said no to Crow (don't think he'll hold up long term).

I said no to G. Beckham (my opinion on G-Bex) well documented in various threads).

I said no to Hosmer (I can't justify giving a HS 1b the money he'll demand with so many capable, and safer, bats in the draft -- I'd rather someone else pay $5.5mio for a bat that won't contribute until 2012).

[markpolis]

I think if you draft him you end up switching Wieters to 1b/dh at the ML-level.

I think he is better than Gordon Beckham. I don't think he is better than Alvarez. He may be a better bet to stay healthy behind the plate -- and Wieters's bat is really what I want to preserve.

Which means you immediately switch Wieters to prepare him to play 1B at the major league level. I'm sure Joe Jordon and the Orioles drafted Wieters to be their franchise catcher for the next ten years. A little over 100 at bats and 30 games into his minor league career the team is going to move Wieters to 1B? I really have to question that strategy.

IMO, Wieters is a special player.

Posey isn't that "special" of a player that we need to move Wieters from catcher to accommodate him. Players such as Alvarez, Beckham, Matusz and even Smoak grade out just as high (if not higher) than Posey and they are a much better fit for our organization.

[markpolis]

Posey is a great bat and a great catcher. Wieters's size may eventually be an issue. Wieters's bat is so good do you want to risk him playing 120 games a year due to injury and standard days off? I think there is an easy case to be made for Posey -- I also think he is a safer bet than Beckham. In fact, if you want to play up Alvarez's injury, you can make the case that Posey is actually the safest college bat in the draft.[/QUOTE]

Ok, now you are reaching.

[Stotle]

Which means you immediately switch Wieters to prepare him to play 1B at the major league level. I'm sure Joe Jordon and the Orioles drafted Wieters to be their franchise catcher for the next ten years. A little over 100 at bats and 30 games into his minor league career the team is going to move Wieters to 1B? I really have to question that strategy.

IMO, Wieters is a special player.

Posey isn't that "special" of a player that we need to move Wieters from catcher to accommodate him. Players such as Alvarez, Beckham, Matusz and even Smoak grade out just as high (if not higher) than Posey and they are a much better fit for our organization.

I never said anything about not picking Alvarez over Posey -- I just wouldn't be upset if we ended up with Posey (which was the question).

Wieters is a special player. He is also 6'5". Do you see him catching and staying healthy for 10 years? Mauer has already started to break down.

Mauer (games played):

05 -- 131

06 -- 140

07 -- 109

How about a similar young talent (breaking in at the same time) at the less physically demanding position of 3b?

David Wright (games played):

05 -- 160

06 -- 154

07 -- 160

Totaling 94 more games, or 31 more games per season.

How about a 1b?

Teix over last 3 years (including his freak injury last year):

05 -- 162

06 -- 162

07 -- 132

Totaling 76 more games, or 25 more games per season.

Pujols (three worst seasons according to games played in bold):

01 -- 161

02 -- 157

03 -- 157

04 -- 154

05 -- 161

06 -- 143

07 -- 158

In worst seasons he totals 74 more games than Mauer, averaging 25 more a year.

Would you rather have your #4/#5 hitter play 140 games a year, or 160? Take into account Wieters will likely miss significant time in at least one season, due to injury.

[Stotle]

Posey is a great bat and a great catcher. Wieters's size may eventually be an issue. Wieters's bat is so good do you want to risk him playing 120 games a year due to injury and standard days off? I think there is an easy case to be made for Posey -- I also think he is a safer bet than Beckham. In fact, if you want to play up Alvarez's injury, you can make the case that Posey is actually the safest college bat in the draft.[/QUOTE]

Ok, now you are reaching.

Not at all. From an analytical standpoint, Posey is the soundest college player, taking Alvarez's injury into account. He has the cleanest mechanics, the best chance of staying at his position and he has been consistently great this season.

Beckham is not as sound mechanically. Smoak has slumped at times. Alvarez had a hand injury. Alonso has defensive issues.

[hoosiers]

I really don't understand why we should pick Posey and why people would be ok with Posey as our pick?

If Posey is a top talent, why would we defer to a lesser talent just because we have a top catching prospect already in the system?

Maybe we could deal Wieters or Posey in a year and get a better shortstop prospect than Gordon Beckham.

Take the better talent and sort things out later.