Buck Hates Kim

[CheeryO]

When was the last time Buck bunted with a man on 1st and none out? Granted he went and did it again with Hardy. If that is the new Buck strategy I guess it makes sense but that seemed like the wrong strategy both times.

I'm guessing another reason Buck hasn't done in much in the past but chose to do it tonight is because he finally has a speedy player like Bourn. He hasn't had a player like that all year.

[notyourbuddy]

Teams have been moving away from it in the last 10 years. Run the numbers. Your chance of scoring a run goes down by about 20% if you give up an out.

That is not actually what the Expected Run Table represents. That table basically says, "If you give up an out (bunt) your odds of putting a crooked number up on the board dramatically goes down."

But, as this sabermetric guy shows in his One Run Probability Tables (near the end of his article) bunting with a runner on 1st and 2nd and no outs actually increases your odds of scoring a single run.

[Aristotelian]

That is not actually what the Expected Run Table represents. That table basically says, "If you give up an out (bunt) your odds of putting a crooked number up on the board dramatically goes down."

But, as this sabermetric guy shows in his One Run Probability Tables (near the end of his article) bunting with a runner on 1st and 2nd and no outs actually increases your odds of scoring a single run.

I am talking about the situation with runner on 1st, nobody out. According to that table, our probability of scoring one run drops from .877 with Kim up to .693 if Bourn gets the bunt down. And as we know his chance of getting the bunt down is not 100%. Thank you for proving my point.

[notyourbuddy]

I am talking about the situation with runner on 1st, nobody out. According to that table, our probability of scoring one run drops from .877 with Kim up to .693 if Bourn gets the bunt down. And as we know his chance of getting the bunt down is not 100%. Thank you for proving my point.

No, that is not what that table says at all. That table has nothing to do with the probability of a team scoring one run.

Look near the bottom of that article at tables 4 & 5 labeled as One Run Probability Table and read the guy's conclusions:

Table 5 indicates a number of cases in which a successful bunt increases the probability of scoring a run. In the AL, when the ninth place batter bunts with a runner on first and no outs, the probability of scoring at least one run moves from .423 up to .441. The impact is even greater with a runner on second and no outs when playing for one run. For example, a successful bunt by the ninth place AL batter with runners on first and second increases the probability of scoring from .624 to .691. And this phenomenon is not limited to the bottom of the order. A successful sacrifice bunt by the second place hitter in this base/out situation raises the probability of scoring at least one run as well.

It is in the case of playing for one run, however, that the overall aptitude of managerial decisions shows up most clearly. As table 6 reveals, when managers bunt they usually increase the likelihood of scoring at least one run in the inning.

[Aristotelian]

No, that is not what that table says at all. That table has nothing to do with the probability of a team scoring one run.

Look near the bottom of that article at tables 4 & 5 labeled as One Run Probability Table and read the guy's conclusions:

OK, gotcha. That is not what you said in the previous post. Even so, that 2% increase assumes a successful bunt, happens a lot less than 98% of the time.

[Norfolk orioles]

September splits? That's like his 0 for 20 in spring training. Meaningless. He should have PH for Wieters, Trumbo, and Davis as well by that logic.

So I suppose trumbo shouldn't even be playing then since he's been worse than that since the all star break?

Or does Buck just like yanking Kim out of ball games and sitting him for no reason?

Oh right, he does.

[Malike]

Conspiracy theorists are out in full effect lol. Wow.

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[Can_of_corn]

I'm guessing another reason Buck hasn't done in much in the past but chose to do it tonight is because he finally has a speedy player like Bourn. He hasn't had a player like that all year.

Bourn is that much faster than Rickard?

[Aristotelian]

Conversation with my 7 year old this morning:

Dad: O's won last night. 3 solo HR's. But they pinch hit for Kim and the guy popped it up!

7 year old: Was it a left handed pitcher?

Dad: Right handed!

7 year old: What? Why would they do that?????

[OFFNY]

o

(vs. DIAMONDBACKS, September 25th)

NUMBER 5

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o

[LookitsPuck]

I'm just glad Buck finally realized Schoop has been a disaster at the plate post-ASB and is batting him lower. He's been a rally killer pretty much every single game for awhile now.

[PaulFolk]

Tell me the explanation then. There is no other explanation for treating Kim like dirt throughout the season and this decision in particular defies any rational sense.

Your premise is flawed if you think Buck is "treating Kim like dirt." Obviously Buck wasn't a fan of him in spring training and buried him the first couple months, but he's made Kim the everyday LF against righties since the end of May. Whatever Buck had against him in spring training, I think it's a distant memory now.

[atomic]

I'm just glad Buck finally realized Schoop has been a disaster at the plate post-ASB and is batting him lower. He's been a rally killer pretty much every single game for awhile now.

Schoop has worst OBP in league according to MASN. Why not let Flaherty play?

[CheeryO]

Bourn is that much faster than Rickard?

Bourn has more stolen bases this year than the entire Orioles team. He led the league in stolen bases for a few years several years back.

[LookitsPuck]

Your premise is flawed if you think Buck is "treating Kim like dirt." Obviously Buck wasn't a fan of him in spring training and buried him the first couple months, but he's made Kim the everyday LF against righties since the end of May. Whatever Buck had against him in spring training, I think it's a distant memory now.

He really hasn't made him the every LF. Maybe up until the end of August, but Kim was pretty much starting half the time against righties...and sometimes less in September.