The highest WPA Oriole hits of 2016

[Fuzzball22]

Lew Ford?

I was thinking Flaherty but close enough:)

[Filmstudy]

The BP one-day delta in O's playoff probabilities is +8.9%. Kim's share of that from his hit was .597, so if I'm doing this right his one swing of the bat increased the O's playoff odds by +5.3%.

That's the right sort of multiplication, but part of the 1-day delta comes from other games, like the Tigers win. Need [P(with win) - P(with loss)] x WPA. I think that number has to be considerably bigger than 5.3%.

[Spy Fox]

The BP one-day delta in O's playoff probabilities is +8.9%. Kim's share of that from his hit was .597, so if I'm doing this right his one swing of the bat increased the O's playoff odds by +5.3%.

I think it's a bit more complicated than that because the winning team's total WPA of a game doesn't necessarily add up to 1. (In fact, their net WPA adds up to .5 since WPA assumes 50% chance of victory at the beginning of the game.) I'm thinking through how the actual math would work though...

[O's84]

Lew Ford?

Mind your tongue! *looks around frantically* Never speak of that name again, do you want to get us both killed.

[Frobby]

I got curious what the WPA was for Chris Hoiles' grand slam with 2 outs in the 9th on May 17, 1996, which gave us a one-run victory. The answer: .890. I'm not sure if the scale can go any higher than that.

[epic]

I was thinking Flaherty but close enough:)

I thought you were referring to Manny. It is kind of odd that he hasn't run into a big hit this year. I know he's definitely had a few over the years.

[BarclaySouthway]

I got curious what the WPA was for Chris Hoiles' grand slam with 2 outs in the 9th on May 17, 1996, which gave us a one-run victory. The answer: .890. I'm not sure if the scale can go any higher than that.

Yeah, you would think a grand slam with 2 outs in the ninth would be the ne plus ultra of WPA events.

[Spy Fox]

I got curious what the WPA was for Chris Hoiles' grand slam with 2 outs in the 9th on May 17, 1996, which gave us a one-run victory. The answer: .890. I'm not sure if the scale can go any higher than that.

While we're on interesting WPA facts in general, one of Nelson Cruz's Oriole games made the list of the top 10 WPA games of all time for a hitter, compiled by Fangraphs in response to Brandon Crawford's seven hit game this year.

September 7, 2014, at Tampa, Cruz hit a 2-run homer in the 4th, go-ahead 3-run triple in the 9th, and go-ahead 2-run homer in the 11th. That plus a walk and single mixed in gave him a WPA for the day of 1.22 for the day. So he basically won the game more than once all by himself.

[Frobby]

I got curious what the WPA was for Chris Hoiles' grand slam with 2 outs in the 9th on May 17, 1996, which gave us a one-run victory. The answer: .890. I'm not sure if the scale can go any higher than that.

Well, I was wrong about that. WPA depends on the run scoring environment of the time. I happened to remember a game when an obscure Tigers back-up shortstop named Tommy Matchick hit a walk-off homer with 2 outs in the 9th against the Orioles. That hit was only a 2-run homer (I had remembered it as a grand slam), but it was worth .92 WPA because runs were so hard to come by in 1968.

Matchick only hit 4 friggin' homers in his 868 PA career, and that was one of them. Not that I'm bitter or anything.

[weams]

The BP one-day delta in O's playoff probabilities is +8.9%. Kim's share of that from his hit was .597, so if I'm doing this right his one swing of the bat increased the O's playoff odds by +5.3%.

You are forgetting to take into account the negative turn that the loss would have on those previous odds. One swing is responsible for at LEAST 7.5 %

[Fuzzball22]

Well, I was wrong about that. WPA depends on the run scoring environment of the time. I happened to remember a game when an obscure Tigers back-up shortstop named Tommy Matchick hit a walk-off homer with 2 outs in the 9th against the Orioles. That hit was only a 2-run homer (I had remembered it as a grand slam), but it was worth .92 WPA because runs were so hard to come by in 1968.

Matchick only hit 4 friggin' homers in his 868 PA career, and that was one of them. Not that I'm bitter or anything.

I actually remember watching that game. It was a Friday night game. I just looked it up and that homerun got Pat Dobson the win. I thought Earl Wilson had started that game but baseball reference has Mickey Lolich.

[Frobby]

I actually remember watching that game. It was a Friday night game. I just looked it up and that homerun got Pat Dobson the win. I thought Earl Wilson had started that game but baseball reference has Mickey Lolich.

I'm glad I'm not the only one with a long if slightly faulty memory.