How well does OBP typically translate from the minors to MLB?

[higgybaby]

Historically, does it tend to be a solid predictor of good OBP in the majors?

Here are three of our good ones:

Joey Rickard career OBP .390

Mancini AA & AAA OBP .374

Chance Sisco career OBP .402

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[weams]

Historically, does it tend to be a solid predictor of good OBP in the majors?

Here are three of our good ones:

Joey Rickard career OBP .390

Mancini AA & AAA OBP .374

Chance Sisco career OBP .402

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I'd figure that as with every other offensive stat take 35% off the top as a ceiling. Some guys exceed that.

[higgybaby]

I'm horrible at math. Does that mean that Rickard's

.402 would equal .261?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[higgybaby]

I must be doing my math wrong because that doesn't sound right.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Can_of_corn]

I must be doing my math wrong because that doesn't sound right.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The math is correct.

I think Weams' penalty is overly high.

[crissfan172]

The math is correct.

I think Weams' penalty is overly high.

I'm assuming he meant 35 points.

[higgybaby]

I'd figure that as with every other offensive stat take 35% off the top as a ceiling. Some guys exceed that.

Did you mean 35% or 35 points?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Frobby]

The conventional wisdom is that the OBP drop is higher for players with very little power, because the pitchers won't fear them and will just pour in strikes if they have to. I don't know if there's actual evidence (beyond anecdotal) to support that.

[weams]

Did you mean 35% or 35 points?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I meant the normal assumption is that the thousands of minor leagues lose at least 30% of whatever they have shown in the the minors if they become one of the lucky 800. I am not even sure that Joey Rickard will ever have a full time MLB job. He may be the Ryan Flaherty of the outfield. OR worse. So i guess if you want to only talk about the top fifty or so MiLB player, they would perform better than 65% of their Milb stats.

[thezeroes]

As a comparison for 2016, the following players were playing in their rookie years.

Trea Turner, Washington , had 1596 PA's in the minors and accumulated a .380 OBP and with over 250 PA's in MLB had a .370 OBP

Trevor Story, Colorado, had 2350 PA's in the minors and accumulated a .348 OBP and with over 250 PA's at MLB had a .341 OBP

Joey Rickard, Orioles, had 1499 PA's in the minors and accumulated a .373 OBP and with over 250 PA's at MLB had a .319 OBP

Byron Buxton, Minnesota, had 1436 PA's in the minors and accumulated .380 OBP and with over 250 PA's at MLB had a .284 OBP

The translation is an individual thing, especially the first year. Turner and Story had a very little dip in OBP while Rickard and Buxton were significantly off the mark.

Turner 576 PA's @AAA w/.364 OBP

Story 275 PA's @ AAA w/.324 OBP

Rickard 104 PA's @ AAA w/.437 OBP

Buxton 268 PA's @ AAA w/.377 OBP

[Frobby]

As a comparison for 2016, the following players were playing in their rookie years.

Trea Turner, Washington , had 1596 PA's in the minors and accumulated a .380 OBP and with over 250 PA's in MLB had a .370 OBP

Trevor Story, Colorado, had 2350 PA's in the minors and accumulated a .348 OBP and with over 250 PA's at MLB had a .341 OBP

Joey Rickard, Orioles, had 1499 PA's in the minors and accumulated a .373 OBP and with over 250 PA's at MLB had a .319 OBP

Byron Buxton, Minnesota, had 1436 PA's in the minors and accumulated .380 OBP and with over 250 PA's at MLB had a .284 OBP

The translation is an individual thing, especially the first year. Turner and Story had a very little dip in OBP while Rickard and Buxton were significantly off the mark.

It might be more accurate to just look at AAA OBP. Some guys might have had high OBP's at lower levels that dropped as they moved up.

[thezeroes]

It might be more accurate to just look at AAA OBP. Some guys might have had high OBP's at lower levels that dropped as they moved up.

Did that in my Initial Post and makes it less of a predictor because of Sample Size.

[weams]

Trey Mancini actually increased his during the transition.

[Phantom]

Age is a huge factor in predicting the dropoff from AAA to MLB as well.

[Trackmaster]

The conventional wisdom is that the OBP drop is higher for players with very little power, because the pitchers won't fear them and will just pour in strikes if they have to. I don't know if there's actual evidence (beyond anecdotal) to support that.

I'm not entirely sure that what you just said is true. I would say that power hitters can have high OBPs not necessarily because of their patience, but because pitchers fear them. And, I would say that its particularly impressive when a non-power hitter continues to force walks. But, I'm not so sure about a patient hitter losing his patience in the majors. I think that its one of the few skillsets that doesn't erode in the majors. I also think that it gets more valuable against better competition.

Really, baseball is a game of physics and split second decisions. The ability to get hits and homeruns relies on seeing the ball well, as much as it does physical strength. If you can see the ball well, and you're not swinging at balls, you're putting yourself in a pretty good position, even if you lack other skills that can be developed.

I've always been a proponent of high walk, high pitch count guys. There are many things that you can teach players how to do, but to teach a player plate discipline, you need to start when he's in diapers.