Sherman: Arguably Worst SP Free Agency Ever

[24fps]

Yeah I don't see any scenario where he accepts the QO. He's the top FA catcher available in a weak overall class. Someone will throw a 3 or 4 year deal at him worth at least 10M AAV. That's enough to turn down the QO IMO.

Here's a scenario. He accepts a 3/30 deal as a free agent, which I think is full retail given his age and steady decline, and his total income from 2016-2019 is $46 million. He accepts a QO for 2017 and a 2/20 deal for 2018-2019 and his income for the same period is $53 million.

[Can_of_corn]

Im okay with short team deals, it helps bridge the gap until the next starting catcher is ready.

I was OK with it last year, when they appeared to have money to spend.

I think their is going to be significantly less money available in the budget this year.

[24fps]

Im okay with short team deals, it helps bridge the gap until the next starting catcher is ready.

Sounds like a job for Nick Hundley at around $4 million per or Kurt Suzuki at around $6 million per. Or less.

[Redskins Rick]

Sounds like a job for Nick Hundley at around $4 million per or Kurt Suzuki at around $6 million per. Or less.

We had Hundley and he has never ever been an every day catcher.

Why do you suppose it would happen now?

Suzuki posted back to back .4 WAR, I would rather have Matt even with the higher salary.

[Can_of_corn]

We had Hundley and he has never ever been an every day catcher.

Why do you suppose it would happen now?

Suzuki posted back to back .4 WAR, I would rather have Matt even with the higher salary.

But what if the ~11M difference in price isn't there? Are you fine going with an outfield of Rickard/Kim/Jones/random 500K player? Flaherty getting non-tendered to save a million? Dan selling another draft pick? Between Schoop, Tillman, Britton and Machado any money saved by players leaving is gone.

[24fps]

But what if the ~11M difference in price isn't there? Are you fine going with an outfield of Rickard/Kim/Jones/random 500K player? Flaherty getting non-tendered to save a million? Dan selling another draft pick? Between Schoop, Tillman, Britton and Machado any money saved by players leaving is gone.

Interestingly, if Trumbo and Wieters both accepted QO's, you could offset the cost by trading Tillman, Britton and Machado and still have a payroll around $150 million plus.

[24fps]

We had Hundley and he has never ever been an every day catcher.

Why do you suppose it would happen now?

Suzuki posted back to back .4 WAR, I would rather have Matt even with the higher salary.

Why do we need an everyday catcher if the yardstick you stipulated is "bridge"?

[esmd]

Here's a scenario. He accepts a 3/30 deal as a free agent, which I think is full retail given his age and steady decline, and his total income from 2016-2019 is $46 million. He accepts a QO for 2017 and a 2/20 deal for 2018-2019 and his income for the same period is $53 million.

Okay, what if he tears his UCL again in 2017? Or an ACL? Or just has nagging injuries causing a crappy year where he hits .230 with 12 or 13 HR's? There goes that 2/20 deal. I take the 46 million guaranteed now, and I guarantee you Boras tells him the same thing. Maybe he listens, maybe he doesn't. But I think he does.

[Can_of_corn]

Okay, what if he tears his UCL again in 2017? Or an ACL? Or just has nagging injuries causing a crappy year where he hits .230 with 12 or 13 HR's? There goes that 2/20 deal. I take the 46 million guaranteed now, and I guarantee you Boras tells him the same thing. Maybe he listens, maybe he doesn't. But I think he does.

He'll still be at ~60M in career earnings.

He can probably make that work.

[O's84]

He'll still be at ~60M in career earnings.

He can probably make that work.

Unless your Gilbert Arenas.

[Can_of_corn]

Unless your Gilbert Arenas.

The list is a lot longer than Arenas but I think Matt would be fine.

The overall point was having that type of safety net behind you can change the math when comparing deals.

[24fps]

The list is a lot longer than Arenas but I think Matt would be fine.

The overall point was having that type of safety net behind you can change the math when comparing deals.

I think Wieters begins to think about declining a prospective QO when he sees a deal 3 years or longer for $36 million or more. IMO it's possible he gets that much, but I don't think it's a given.

If I'm the Orioles I would want to be confident that he's got a team interested in spending at least $50 million before beginning to consider extending a QO. I don't think that's at all likely.

[Can_of_corn]

I think Wieters begins to think about declining a prospective QO when he sees a deal 3 years or longer for $36 million or more. IMO it's possible he gets that much, but I don't think it's a given.

If I'm the Orioles I would want to be confident that he's got a team interested in spending at least $50 million before beginning to consider extending a QO. I don't think that's at all likely.

I still think a 2 year + option or 3 year deal gets done with the O's.

[weams]

They benched Heyward for Chris Coghlan.

[Can_of_corn]

They benched Heyward for Chris Coghlan.

Not sure why you posted that in this thread but...

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/cubs-should-keep-starting-jason-heyward-in-the-world-series/