Make your best offer to Chris Tillman

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Well I think you invest in your player development system and fill out your ML roster with 1 year stop gap siginings... ala Joe Saunders, Vance Worley, Bartolo Colon, etc.. and not be afraid to use your young pitchers like an Ariel Miranda who clearly out pitched Wade Miley last year.

It's not a pretty situation that this franchise is about to confront. We didn't get to the edge of the cliff over night and it will take time to get back to a sustainable winning franchise. Giving guys that are just not that good (Tillman) 5 year contracts won't get us there (IMHO).

I think your strategy hastens the day we reach the cliff.    But let's say Gausman and Bundy develop well -- they're under team control for 4 and 5 years, respectively.   Put Tillman in there for another 4 years beyond this one, and are we really certain we're going off a cliff in that time frame?   Three good pitchers can carry a team a long way.   

To me, it's more an issue of whether one thinks Tillman will be a good pitcher for four years beyond this one.    If yes, then sign him up if there's a reasonable deal to be had.    If you're one of those who doesn't think Tillman's likely to be very good (and perhaps doesn't think he's that good right now), then you obviously don't do it.    I happen to think Tillman's pretty good -- not an ace, but the kind of guy who would be a solid no. 2 or very strong 3 in most rotations -- and he's young enough to have several good years left in him.  

[webbrick2010]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

2016 FIP/xFIP:

Miranda- 5.25/5.06

Miley- 4.45/4.04

I wouldn't say he clearly outpitched Miley.  Frobby might, he doesn't like FIP all that much.

Yes clearly outpitched was over stated

The point I was trying to make is that shelling out 15 million for a marginal starter like Miley may not be worth it over what you already have in house for free. There are only so many Miley's that a team like the O's can afford before it affects how much they can upgrade the team in other areas or extend their core talent.

[webbrick2010]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think your strategy hastens the day we reach the cliff.    But let's say Gausman and Bundy develop well -- they're under team control for 4 and 5 years, respectively.   Put Tillman in there for another 4 years beyond this one, and are we really certain we're going off a cliff in that time frame?   Three good pitchers can carry a team a long way.   

To me, it's more an issue of whether one thinks Tillman will be a good pitcher for four years beyond this one.    If yes, then sign him up if there's a reasonable deal to be had.    If you're one of those who doesn't think Tillman's likely to be very good (and perhaps doesn't think he's that good right now), then you obviously don't do it.    I happen to think Tillman's pretty good -- not an ace, but the kind of guy who would be a solid no. 2 or very strong 3 in most rotations -- and he's young enough to have several good years left in him.  

I guess I'm of the opinion that Tillman can largely be replaced by veteran stop gaps on 1 year contracts and no I don't think a guy who has marginal velocity and strikeout rates is going to age well or provide much value over the next 5 years. I believe his best years are behind him.

[backwardsk]

1 hour ago, webbrick2010 said:

Not hindsight at all as I was on record for wanting those trades at exactly those times, and I believe they were doable as none of those players have been particularly critical to the O's success.

Jim Johnson was bad in the second 1/2 of 2013 when the O's did not make the playoffs and then horrible in 2014

Chris Davis was suspended in 2014 and not available for the O's playoff run

Darren O'day wasn't needed to miss the playoffs in 2015 and was bad in 2016

Davies was traded for Parra that most recognized as a bad trade instantly

By the way I have beat the drums for trading Britton this winter, so in a year or two when we get much less or nothing for him it won't be hind sight

 

You also said that the 2016 Orioles would finish in last place -- in August.

[backwardsk]

1 hour ago, webbrick2010 said:

Yes clearly outpitched was over stated

The point I was trying to make is that shelling out 15 million for a marginal starter like Miley may not be worth it over what you already have in house for free. There are only so many Miley's that a team like the O's can afford before it affects how much they can upgrade the team in other areas or extend their core talent.

They are not paying Miley $15M.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

2016 FIP/xFIP:

Miranda- 5.25/5.06

Miley- 4.45/4.04

I wouldn't say he clearly outpitched Miley.  Frobby might, he doesn't like FIP all that much.

Miranda outpitched Miley in a fairly miniscule sample.   I wasn't too upset with giving up Miranda because I thought he was pretty borderline as a major league prospect.   He did pretty well in his first 11 major league games, and Miley was below average for us.    We'll see if that pattern continues in 2017, and if it does, I'll be the first to say that in hindsight it was a mistake.   But I don't put this in the same category as, say, the Davies trade where it was pretty clear on the day of the trade that we were giving up more than we were getting.  

[MDtransplant757]

5/65. I like the deal that Dan Duffy got in KC, and would like to see that with Tillman. 

[webbrick2010]

42 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

They are not paying Miley $15M.

Last year + this year

2.5 Million + 12 Million + .5 to 2 million dollar option = 15 to 17 million

For that I'd like to get more than a marginal increment on a 500K AAAA type pitcher

Last year Miley did not help the O's make the playoffs (he almost cost them the playoffs)

[backwardsk]

9 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Last year + this year

2.5 Million + 12 Million + .5 to 2 million dollar option = 15 to 17 million

For that I'd like to get more than a marginal increment on a 500K AAAA type pitcher

Last year Miley did not help the O's make the playoffs (he almost cost them the playoffs)

Incorrect.  They are not paying Miley $12M this year.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mileywa01.shtml?mobile=false

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Last year + this year

2.5 Million + 12 Million + .5 to 2 million dollar option = 15 to 17 million

For that I'd like to get more than a marginal increment on a 500K AAAA type pitcher

Last year Miley did not help the O's make the playoffs (he almost cost them the playoffs)

Norris didn't help up in 2013, but he did help us in 2014.   I'm hoping for a similar outcome from Miley in 2017.

[webbrick2010]

3 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

Incorrect.  They are not paying Miley $12M this year.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mileywa01.shtml?mobile=false

Oops sorry you are correct

It is much worse than I thought

We have already paid 2.5 million and are on the hook for another 21.5 to 23 million. Didn't realize we were stuck with Miley thru 2018 !!

[backwardsk]

3 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Oops sorry you are correct

It is much worse than I thought

We have already paid 2.5 million and are on the hook for another 21.5 to 23 million. Didn't realize we were stuck with Miley thru 2018 !!

No.  There is a 500k option for 2018. And we paid less than 2.5 for his 11 starts last season.

[webbrick2010]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Norris didn't help up in 2013, but he did help us in 2014.   I'm hoping for a similar outcome from Miley in 2017.

We can hope.... but I don't see the upside with Miley, last year with an ERA+ over 100 was 2013... how did he ever get his present contract?

[Bradysburns]

6 hours ago, webbrick2010 said:

I guess I'm of the opinion that Tillman can largely be replaced by veteran stop gaps on 1 year contracts and no I don't think a guy who has marginal velocity and strikeout rates is going to age well or provide much value over the next 5 years. I believe his best years are behind him.

You're right - he probably can, if we get lucky with those stop-gaps. Dan seems good at getting lucky - capturing lightning in a bottle on one-year deals for retread players. However, what that doesn't really do is provide stability, continuity, chemistry among the pitching staff... The veteran leadership might be there, or it might not. I feel like Tillman brings intangibles to the team, like durability, a certain dogged demeanor, and a good work ethic. He's also "our" guy - he came out of our farm system (I know he spent time in Seattle's too...). 

He's also a very solid pitcher. I think he'll be eclipsed by Gausman this year. I think Gausman becomes a rock star this season, personally. And I can't wait to see it - he's such a neat young dude and he's got some good ink. 

Still, I'm not THAT certain of KG's pending rise to super stardom happening in 2017... Which might suggest waiting to see what happens on Tillman. In other words, the best move is probably not an extension this year, the more I think about this. The best move is waiting to see what happens with the young guns... and then deciding Tillman's value to the team at that point.

But would I be okay with a 5/75 deal right now? I probably would take that risk... But DD doesn't have to, so he probably won't.  

[Roll Tide]

 

21 hours ago, MDtransplant757 said:

5/65. I like the deal that Dan Duffy got in KC, and would like to see that with Tillman. 

I was thinking something like this...

 

10 million this year and 15 average the following four.

 

i'd probably offer 5/65 with an option or 6/78