The Lineup - Maximizing OBP at Top, then Power

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

It doesn't work like that.

Also, double plays.

Good point on double plays.   Caught stealing and pick offs.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Good point on double plays.  

And homers.   And the times where both guys get hits don't get double counted.    

[mdbdotcom]

I could be wrong, but I believe the probability of two hitters in a row -- each with an OBP of .350 -- getting on is actually .1225. That's .350x.350, not .350+.350.

[cheecks]

I really hope Buck gives Kim a shot at playing every day. Kim has shown the ability to adjust rather quickly. That and I am not a fan of platoon situations at all. Rickards as much as I like the kid, I doubt he'd ever amount to anything other than a defensive replacement.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

I could be wrong, but I believe the probability of two hitters in a row -- each with an OBP of .350 -- getting on is actually .1225. That's .350x.350, not .350+.350.

You're correct, but he was talking about the probability of coming up with at least one runner on.    And he's still wrong.   

[bmw600]

The math nerd in me has to respond 

The probability (ignoring things like pick offs, homerunsn DPs) of having one batter on base if the first two batters have an OBP is .350 + .350 - .1225 = .5775.  Essentially, the chance that one or the other will reach base minus the chance BOTH will reach base. 

Of course, if you throw in all the ways the runner could no longer be on base, it would end up being lower than that and considerably more complicated to calculate. 

/hijack

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, bmw600 said:

The math nerd in me has to respond 

The probability (ignoring things like pick offs, homerunsn DPs) of having one batter on base if the first two batters have an OBP is .350 + .350 - .1225 = .5775.  Essentially, the chance that one or the other will reach base minus the chance BOTH will reach base. 

Of course, if you throw in all the ways the runner could no longer be on base, it would end up being lower than that and considerably more complicated to calculate. 

/hijack

Thanks.  I knew he was wrong but didn't remember how to show it.

[backwardsk]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You're correct, but he was talking about the probability of coming up with at least one runner on.    And he's still wrong.   

It's not 70%.  Is it 35%?  If your lead off hitter gets on at 35% and your second hitter gets on at 25%, is it still 35%?

nevermind.  Answered above.

[Number5]

5 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

I could be wrong, but I believe the probability of two hitters in a row -- each with an OBP of .350 -- getting on is actually .1225. That's .350x.350, not .350+.350.

He is saying at least one of the two, not absolutely both.  Actually, the odds that at least one of two consecutive .350 OPS hitters reaches base is .5775.  That is because .65X.65 is .4225 (the odds that both fail to reach base).  Now, of the 57.75 percent of the time that at least one of the two reaches base, you have numerous possibilities for no one to be on base for the third batter, including double plays, caught stealing, home runs, and runs scoring by other means.  I have no idea how to calculate those possibilities.

[backwardsk]

54 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If I am understanding your question correctly I would say that the innings would end.

Which question are you referring to?  I'll try to clear it up.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

Which question are you referring to?  I'll try to clear it up.

Quote

why would one continue to expect that to happen when your best player moves to five and inferior hitters hit ahead of him?  Wouldn't six and seven then become more important?

First off we are not generally talking about a situation where the best two hitters are putting up a 350/470 line and the worst hitters are going 215/250.  Most all of this lineup stuff isn't going to make a big difference in runs scored.

Six and Seven won't be as important because the team on offense will run out of outs. 

[mrpennybags]

I like it. It's just unconventional enough to be interesting but makes a lot of sense.

[El Gordo]

Kim/Joey

Manny

AJ/Trumbo RF

CD

Trumbo DH/AJ

Smith/Mancini DH

Scoop

Castillo/Joseph 

Hardy

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Could this be the opening day lineup, minus shortstop J.J. Hardy?

For the Orioles
Hyun Soo Kim LF
Adam Jones CF
Manny Machado SS
Chris Davis 1B
Mark Trumbo DH
Seth Smith RF
Jonathan Schoop 2B
Welington Castillo C
Ryan Flaherty 3B

 

Looks like Buck is going with the traditional (best hitter hits 3rd) approach.   I believe our lineup experts would say that Jones and Machado should be flip flopped?

Sure, but marginal difference.

Not that I consider myself an expert, just someone that has read The Book.

[weams]

35 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sure, but marginal difference.

Not that I consider myself an expert, just someone that has read The Book.

Infinitesimally marginal difference. And for only one day, no difference.