Pick Three for the 25-man

[ChuckS]

Just as I am okay with runners being extra aggressive on the base paths during spring training I am okay with them making diving attempts on balls they don't have a good chance of catching.  Spring training is the time to test limits and I don't recall Kim misplaying too many balls during the regular season last year. 

[ChuckS]

The big question becomes are we a better team with Kim/Jones/Rickard in the OF with Trumbo at DH or Rickard/Jones/Trumbo in the OF with Mancini at DH (versus lefties)?

I would lean towards the latter.  What is lost defensively with Trumbo in RF is gained by replacing Kim with Rickard. Mancini is likely going to hit lefties better than Kim so that's why I am in favor of breaking camp with Rickard and Mancini.  

[Babypowder]

53 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

The big question becomes are we a better team with Kim/Jones/Rickard in the OF with Trumbo at DH or Rickard/Jones/Trumbo in the OF with Mancini at DH (versus lefties)?

I would lean towards the latter.  What is lost defensively with Trumbo in RF is gained by replacing Kim with Rickard. Mancini is likely going to hit lefties better than Kim so that's why I am in favor of breaking camp with Rickard and Mancini.  

I can't see them holding a roster spot for a short side platoon DH and pinch hitter, especially one they see as a legitimate prospect. I could be wrong though.

[backwardsk]

Gentry pulled back a home run today.

[waroriole]

Flash

Mancini

Santander

[wildcard]

It's still too early to be settled on the outfield but here is my current guess. Could change.

Smith/Jones/Rickard with Trumbo as DH vs righties

?/Jones/Rickard with Trumbo as DH vs lefties.  I think left field is an open competition.

Kim is more a bench player for me along with Flaherty and Joseph.

That leaves that on left field platoon player open.

 

 

[Aristotelian]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

It's still too early to be settled on the outfield but here is my current guess. Could change.

Smith/Jones/Rickard with Trumbo as DH vs righties

?/Jones/Rickard with Trumbo as DH vs lefties.  I think left field is an open competition.

Kim is more a bench player for me along with Flaherty and Joseph.

That leaves that on left field platoon player open.

 

 

Kim is our second best hitter against RHP. Rickard would need to catch the ball like Willie Mays to keep Kim out of the lineup. But Rickard put up negative dWAR last year. Rickard is not a given to make the team, let alone start in front of Kim. 

[wildcard]

5 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Kim is our second best hitter against RHP. Rickard would need to catch the ball like Willie Mays to keep Kim out of the lineup. But Rickard put up negative dWAR last year. Rickard is not a given to make the team, let alone start in front of Kim. 

 

I was just listening to Lewis Black so please insert the F word where ever you think its appropriate to the following rant.

You know, you were right.  Kim was the best Oriole at getting on base last year.    But he can't field worth a darn.  Hence the O's having one of the worst starter ERAs in baseball.  Last year a ball would be hit to the outfield and I hoped it would go to Jones.  If it didn't it was an adventure.   If it was over the head of Trumbo or Kim they wouldn't go back to the wall.  No they just turned and hope they could play it off the fence. 

Some fans say they would catch what they gone to.  And this is true to some extent.  If you would cordon off a 5 by 5 foot area and call that your new outfield they would be fine.   But unfortunately left and right field are much bigger that that.

I wonder if fans that say Rickard can't field have any eyes at all.  I mean they can't have watched the games.  No, they have to have their nose stuck squarely in a stat book.    These are the same fans that think Jones had no range the years that he won the Gold Gloves.   They believe what some nerd printed in a book before they would ever watch Jones  dive all over the outfield gaps making amazing catches of uncatchable balls.  

The same books that printed that Markakis could not field in right field. Boy, after watching Trumbo a season in right doesn't Markakis look like Paul (insert word) Blair.  Markakis would actually go into the right field stand to catch balls.  He did make amazing leaping catches at the wall to rob batters of RBIs.   He did all that while Trumbo and Kim would  have stood in one place and applauded if they had any sense.

I am sorry.  If you really believe that Rickard has no more range the Kim I really can't help you.  I really can't.   And it all means that you have no sense of player development.   Rickard who has  months in major league parks and Is young enough to get better.  He has the speed and instinct to improve.   Mean while God gave Kim no range.  Its no his fault.  Some players have it and some don't.  He never even got in the line the was passing out range.  Maybe the line was too far away for him to reach.

Oh and Rickard did have over a 400 OBP in AA and AAA just two years ago.  So maybe, just maybe he hits just as well as Kim and has  better range.  Can you possibly understand the concept.  That young players have the  chance that the will develop into using their God give skills.  

End of rant.  Thank you Lewis.

[weams]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

 

I was just listening to Lewis Black so please insert the F word where ever you think its appropriate to the following rant.

You know, you were right.  Kim was the best Oriole at getting on base last year.    But he can't field worth a darn.  Hence the O's having one of the worst starter ERAs in baseball.  Last year a ball would be hit to the outfield and I hoped it would go to Jones.  If it didn't it was an adventure.   If it was over the head of Trumbo or Kim they wouldn't go back to the wall.  No they just turned and hope they could play it off the fence. 

Some fans say they would catch what they gone to.  And this is true to some extent.  If you would cordon off a 5 by 5 foot area and call that your new outfield they would be fine.   But unfortunately left and right field are much bigger that that.

I wonder if fans that say Rickard can't field have any eyes at all.  I mean they can't have watched the games.  No, they have to have their nose stuck squarely in a stat book.    These are the same fans that think Jones had no range the years that he won the Gold Gloves.   They believe what some nerd printed in a book before they would ever watch Jones  dive all over the outfield gaps making amazing catches of uncatchable balls.  

The same books that printed that Markakis could not field in right field. Boy, after watching Trumbo a season in right doesn't Markakis look like Paul (insert word) Blair.  Markakis would actually go into the right field stand to catch balls.  He did make amazing leaping catches at the wall to rob batters of RBIs.   He did all that while Trumbo and Kim would  have stood in one place and applauded if they had any sense.

I am sorry.  If you really believe that Rickard has no more range the Kim I really can't help you.  I really can't.   And it all means that you have no sense of player development.   Rickard who has  months in major league parks and Is young enough to get better.  He has the speed and instinct to improve.   Mean while God gave Kim no range.  Its no his fault.  Some players have it and some don't.  He never even got in the line the was passing out range.  Maybe the line was too far away for him to reach.

Oh and Rickard did have over a 400 OBP in AA and AAA just two years ago.  So maybe, just maybe he hits just as well as Kim and has  better range.  Can you possibly understand the concept.  That young players have the  chance that the will develop into using their God give skills.  

End of rant.  Thank you Lewis.

Me, I try to discard most defensive statistics.

Quote

While many argue that the only way to evaluate defense is by actually watching the games, this is exactly how the data for UZR and DRS is collected. The potential for human error is a legitimate issue in the collection of the data — and the same kind of human error is a legitimate issue for people who are basing evaluations based on their own personal observations — but after a decade of varying humans collecting the information, the odds of a systemic bias sustaining itself solely against Markakis are slim indeed.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/on-nick-markakis-and-defensive-metrics/

Kim is better against right handers. Right handers are in the majority. Ergo, Kim plays more. Even if he is less fleet a foot. Kim errors infrequently because he plays back and plays what is hit in front of him on a bounce. My eyes tell me that Joey plays the outfield more athletically than Kim, I'm convinced it does not matter that much. Joey is no Craig Gentry. 

 

[bobmc]

3 hours ago, wildcard said:

 

I was just listening to Lewis Black so please insert the F word where ever you think its appropriate to the following rant.

You know, you were right.  Kim was the best Oriole at getting on base last year.    But he can't field worth a darn.  Hence the O's having one of the worst starter ERAs in baseball.  Last year a ball would be hit to the outfield and I hoped it would go to Jones.  If it didn't it was an adventure.   If it was over the head of Trumbo or Kim they wouldn't go back to the wall.  No they just turned and hope they could play it off the fence. 

Some fans say they would catch what they gone to.  And this is true to some extent.  If you would cordon off a 5 by 5 foot area and call that your new outfield they would be fine.   But unfortunately left and right field are much bigger that that.

I wonder if fans that say Rickard can't field have any eyes at all.  I mean they can't have watched the games.  No, they have to have their nose stuck squarely in a stat book.    These are the same fans that think Jones had no range the years that he won the Gold Gloves.   They believe what some nerd printed in a book before they would ever watch Jones  dive all over the outfield gaps making amazing catches of uncatchable balls.  

The same books that printed that Markakis could not field in right field. Boy, after watching Trumbo a season in right doesn't Markakis look like Paul (insert word) Blair.  Markakis would actually go into the right field stand to catch balls.  He did make amazing leaping catches at the wall to rob batters of RBIs.   He did all that while Trumbo and Kim would  have stood in one place and applauded if they had any sense.

I am sorry.  If you really believe that Rickard has no more range the Kim I really can't help you.  I really can't.   And it all means that you have no sense of player development.   Rickard who has  months in major league parks and Is young enough to get better.  He has the speed and instinct to improve.   Mean while God gave Kim no range.  Its no his fault.  Some players have it and some don't.  He never even got in the line the was passing out range.  Maybe the line was too far away for him to reach.

Oh and Rickard did have over a 400 OBP in AA and AAA just two years ago.  So maybe, just maybe he hits just as well as Kim and has  better range.  Can you possibly understand the concept.  That young players have the  chance that the will develop into using their God give skills.  

End of rant.  Thank you Lewis.

[wildcard]

26 minutes ago, weams said:

Me, I try to discard most defensive statistics.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/on-nick-markakis-and-defensive-metrics/

Kim is better against right handers. Right handers are in the majority. Ergo, Kim plays more. Even if he is less fleet a foot. Kim errors infrequently because he plays back and plays what is hit in front of him on a bounce. My eyes tell me that Joey plays the outfield more athletically than Kim, I'm convinced it does not matter that much. Joey is no Craig Gentry. 

 

Joey does not have Gentry range.  I agree.  But Gentry has shown over years in the majors that he can't hit righties.  There is a question over the last three years if he can hit lefties.  Rickard may develop into a player that can hit both lefties and righties and play above average  defense.  His career is in front of him not behind him like Gentry.

I would correct your  statement to say that Kim hit better than Rickard last year.  That does not mean he will do that this year.  We do not know that to be true.   Rickard is at an age to improve.  If he hits like he did in the minors he could have better offense and defense than Kim.  

Kim is at an age where is probably will not improve.  He does one thing well.  He gets on base.  He does several things poorly.  He has poor range.  His arm is not that good.  He has little power. His base running is questionable.  So if the O's can find someone  better they should.  It will help the team overall.

[Frobby]

You have a tendency to minimize the offensive differences between these two players and maximize the defensive differences.

Kim: .801 OPS, .839 vs. RHP, Rtot/yr -24, Rdrs/yr -23, -17.4 UZR/150, 0.6 rWAR, 0.9 fWAR

Rickard: .696 OPS, .618 vs. RHP, Rtot/yr -18, Rdrs/yr -16, -19.7 UZR/150, -0.5 rWAR, -0.7 fWAR

It's an objective fact that Kim was a much better hitter than Rickard last year, especially vs. RHP.    You can't minimize the importance of a 220-point gap in their OPS vs. RHP.    

Meanwhile, the stats confirm your conclusion that Kim is a bad OF, but they also show Rickard was not much better.    Now, I happen to agree with you that defensive stats aren't always reliable and have to be taken with a grain of salt.   But Rickard would have to be drastically better on defense to overcome Kim's huge offensive advantage vs. RHP, and that's a very tough case to make given the numbers.   

[Aristotelian]

31 minutes ago, wildcard said:

 

Kim is at an age where is probably will not improve.  He does one thing well.  He gets on base.  He does several things poorly.  He has poor range.  His arm is not that good.  He has little power. His base running is questionable.  So if the O's can find someone  better they should.  It will help the team overall.

I agree with everything you have said here. Kim has major weaknesses (as do Trumbo and Smith). The O's are still lacking an everyday RF. Maybe Rickard becomes that guy. (Maybe Santander or Tavarez does). Rickard is not there yet. 

[weams]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You have a tendency to minimize the offensive differences between these two players and maximize the defensive differences.

Kim: .801 OPS, .839 vs. RHP, Rtot/yr -24, Rdrs/yr -23, -17.4 UZR/150, 0.6 rWAR, 0.9 fWAR

Rickard: .696 OPS, .618 vs. RHP, Rtot/yr -18, Rdrs/yr -16, -19.7 UZR/150, -0.5 rWAR, -0.7 fWAR

It's an objective fact that Kim was a much better hitter than Rickard last year, especially vs. RHP.    You can't minimize the importance of a 220-point gap in their OPS vs. RHP.    

Meanwhile, the stats confirm your conclusion that Kim is a bad OF, but they also show Rickard was not much better.    Now, I happen to agree with you that defensive stats aren't always reliable and have to be taken with a grain of salt.   But Rickard would have to be drastically better on defense to overcome Kim's huge offensive advantage vs. RHP, and that's a very tough case to make given the numbers.   

Very level and accurate analysis. 

[weams]

37 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Joey does not have Gentry range.  I agree.  But Gentry has shown over years in the majors that he can't hit righties.  There is a question over the last three years if he can hit lefties.  Rickard may develop into a player that can hit both lefties and righties and play above average  defense.  His career is in front of him not behind him like Gentry.

I would correct your  statement to say that Kim hit better than Rickard last year.  That does not mean he will do that this year.  We do not know that to be true.   Rickard is at an age to improve.  If he hits like he did in the minors he could have better offense and defense than Kim.  

Kim is at an age where is probably will not improve.  He does one thing well.  He gets on base.  He does several things poorly.  He has poor range.  His arm is not that good.  He has little power. His base running is questionable.  So if the O's can find someone  better they should.  It will help the team overall.

You know what? I doubt either of them will improve much. I think they are both very close to, if not in, the best 800 baseball players in the world club. I like them both. Buck seems to be skeptical of each of them as an answer.