How Much Will It Take To Sign Manny Long Term?

[BohKnowsBmore]

12 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

2nded...and anyone thinking with their head and not their heart would agree with this. 

I've said it before and I'll say it again, there's not doubt in my mind that Manny's going to the highest bidder (and that won't be us). The only thing that might effect his decision, other than price, is whether he prefers to play SS or 3B. 

Quite the No True Scotsman you've got going there...

Thinking with one's head also has to consider the contribution he makes to the team over the next two years, in which there is a non-zero chance of a WS.  Most of these maximize return positions only compare trading now vs. FA compensation, rather than trading now vs. FA compensation + contribution to team for next two seasons.

[Tx Oriole]

22 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Doesn't sound ridiculous to me.

Yea but 35 million a year? Seems too much to me. 

[clapdiddy]

24 minutes ago, Tx Oriole said:

Yea but 35 million a year? Seems too much to me. 

More importantly, I'm sure it's too much for Mr. Angelos.

[Frobby]

48 minutes ago, Tx Oriole said:

Yea but 35 million a year? Seems too much to me. 

Fangraphs' valuation of Machado, by year:

2012: $8.4 mm (1/3 season)

2013: $45.8 mm

2014: $17.4 mm (1/2 season)

2015: 54.3 mm

2016: 51.8 mm

By that measure, he's been worth $35 mm/yr in his career, even ignoring the fact that he only played partial season in 2012 and 2014.     In his three full seasons he's been worth an average of $50 mm/yr.     I'm not saying fangraphs is the ultimate authority, but the case for Manny at $35 mm/yr is much stronger than the case for Davis at $23 mm.

[Orange]

I'm in favor of a compromise... buy out his last two years of team control plus his first two FA years for about $100m.  He still hits FA for his mega-deal at age 28, we get him for four years at a fair number, and he is already set for life with a nine-figure deal in his mid-20's.

[clapdiddy]

18 minutes ago, Orange said:

I'm in favor of a compromise... buy out his last two years of team control plus his first two FA years for about $100m.  He still hits FA for his mega-deal at age 28, we get him for four years at a fair number, and he is already set for life with a nine-figure deal in his mid-20's.

I like this.   It's the opt-out contract without the opt-out!

[thezeroes]

5 hours ago, backwardsk said:

How many players in the history of the game has produced more than 15 WAR before they are 24?

1              Mike Trout          48.5        2011       2016       19-24

2              Ty Cobb                46.7        1905       1911       18-24

3              Mickey Mantle  40.9        1951       1956       19-24

4              Alex Rodriguez  38           1994       2000       18-24

5              Ken Griffey         37           1989       1994       19-24

6              Mel Ott                36.8        1926       1933       17-24

7              Rogers Hornsby                36.1        1915       1920       19-24

8              Jimmie Foxx       36           1925       1932       17-24

9              Arky Vaughan    34.3        1932       1936       20-24

10           Ted Williams       34.2        1939       1942       20-23

11           Al Kaline               33.5        1953       1959       18-24

12           Eddie Mathews                31.5        1952       1956       20-24

13           Andruw Jones   31           1996       2001       19-24

14           Vada Pinson       30.9        1958       1963       19-24

15           Johnny Bench    30.7        1967       1972       19-24

16           Tris Speaker       30.1        1907       1912       19-24

17           Hank Aaron        29.9        1954       1958       20-24

18           Frank Robinson 29.7        1956       1960       20-24

19           Albert Pujols      29.2        2001       2004       21-24

20           Cesar Cedeno    29.2        1970       1975       19-24

21           Rickey Henderson           28.1        1979       1983       20-24

22           Eddie Collins       28.1        1906       1911       19-24

23           Cal Ripken           27.9        1981       1985       20-24

24           Sherry Magee   27.2        1904       1909       19-24

25           Joe DiMaggio     26.3        1936       1939       21-24

26           Willie Mays         24.8        1951       1955       20-24

27           Jason Heyward 24.6        2010       2014       20-24

28           Manny Machado              24.4        2012       2016       19-23

29           Stan Musial         24           1941       1944       20-23

[clapdiddy]

10 minutes ago, thezeroes said:

1              Mike Trout          48.5        2011       2016       19-24

2              Ty Cobb                46.7        1905       1911       18-24

3              Mickey Mantle  40.9        1951       1956       19-24

4              Alex Rodriguez  38           1994       2000       18-24

5              Ken Griffey         37           1989       1994       19-24

6              Mel Ott                36.8        1926       1933       17-24

7              Rogers Hornsby                36.1        1915       1920       19-24

8              Jimmie Foxx       36           1925       1932       17-24

9              Arky Vaughan    34.3        1932       1936       20-24

10           Ted Williams       34.2        1939       1942       20-23

11           Al Kaline               33.5        1953       1959       18-24

12           Eddie Mathews                31.5        1952       1956       20-24

13           Andruw Jones   31           1996       2001       19-24

14           Vada Pinson       30.9        1958       1963       19-24

15           Johnny Bench    30.7        1967       1972       19-24

16           Tris Speaker       30.1        1907       1912       19-24

17           Hank Aaron        29.9        1954       1958       20-24

18           Frank Robinson 29.7        1956       1960       20-24

19           Albert Pujols      29.2        2001       2004       21-24

20           Cesar Cedeno    29.2        1970       1975       19-24

21           Rickey Henderson           28.1        1979       1983       20-24

22           Eddie Collins       28.1        1906       1911       19-24

23           Cal Ripken           27.9        1981       1985       20-24

24           Sherry Magee   27.2        1904       1909       19-24

25           Joe DiMaggio     26.3        1936       1939       21-24

26           Willie Mays         24.8        1951       1955       20-24

27           Jason Heyward 24.6        2010       2014       20-24

28           Manny Machado              24.4        2012       2016       19-23

29           Stan Musial         24           1941       1944       20-23

Wow.   First of all...nice work!

Secondly, that is one impressive group of players!

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, clapdiddy said:

Wow.   First of all...nice work!

Secondly, that is one impressive group of players!

It would be interesting to see what those players produced over the following 10 years.   It's a highly productive group, but there are a handful of cautionary tales on the list.

[esmd]

5 hours ago, backwardsk said:

What kind of ransom do you think a win now team will give up for one year of service?

People want to say Donaldson is better than Manny.  Look at what he brought back.

I'll think you'll get more for him than you might think.

4 hours ago, webbrick2010 said:

That boat has sailed, he's not going to get much for one year of control

DD/Buck are not going to trade him. They are going to ride him to FA and hope for a couple wild card berths. Than we get nothing. Then we get a new GM/Manager. Then the un-necessarily painful rebuild.

We'll see.

[NCRaven]

1 hour ago, Orange said:

I'm in favor of a compromise... buy out his last two years of team control plus his first two FA years for about $100m.  He still hits FA for his mega-deal at age 28, we get him for four years at a fair number, and he is already set for life with a nine-figure deal in his mid-20's.

I don't believe that there is any way that his agent would let him sign a four-year deal at this point.  Too close to free agency.

[Orange]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

It would be interesting to see what those players produced over the following 10 years.   It's a highly productive group, but there are a handful of cautionary tales on the list.

Yeah, but the only cautionary tales are the ones with weird first names like Arky and Sherry.  Based on that irrefutable evidence, Manny will be one of the all-time greats.

[esmd]

14 minutes ago, Orange said:

Yeah, but the only cautionary tales are the ones with weird first names like Arky and Sherry.  Based on that irrefutable evidence, Manny will be one of the all-time greats.

If you'd given the then-equivalent to 10/350 to Andruw Jones or Jason Heyward, you might just have regretted it.

Here's what jumps out to me from that list - Mike Trout is amazing.

But you know what, I wouldn't give him 10/350 any more than I would Manny.  It's just too much devoted to one player.  Look at the Angels.  They've got Trout, and they're terrible, and look to continue being terrible.  Now, much of that is due to other bad contracts (Pujols, Hamilton, CJ Wilson, Weaver, etc.), but if a team like the Orioles gave any one player 30-35M per year, there just isn't enough money left to fill out the rest of the roster with quality players.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

It would be interesting to see what those players produced over the following 10 years.   It's a highly productive group, but there are a handful of cautionary tales on the list.

So, of course, I did it.    Excluding the three listed players who haven't yet completed 10 years beyond age 24 (Trout, Heyward, Machado), this group of players averaged 30.0 WAR by age 24 and then 59.1 WAR over their next ten seasons.     The top player on the list over his next ten years was Willie Mays -- 24.8 WAR by age 24, 95.4 WAR in his next ten seasons.    The lowest was Vada Pinson, 30.9 WAR by age 24, 23.8 his next ten seasons.    On average, these players had 1.9 times as much WAR in the next 10 seasons as they did by age 24.    For Manny, that would lead to expected WAR of 48.1 over the next decade.    19 of the 26 players on the list exceeded that.   At current FA prices, 48.1 WAR is worth about $383 mm.    Factor in that Manny's not a free agent for 2 more years, and a haircut to $350 mm sounds about right.    

[Can_of_corn]

17 minutes ago, esmd said:

If you'd given the then-equivalent to 10/350 to Andruw Jones or Jason Heyward, you might just have regretted it.

Here's what jumps out to me from that list - Mike Trout is amazing.

But you know what, I wouldn't give him 10/350 any more than I would Manny.  It's just too much devoted to one player.  Look at the Angels.  They've got Trout, and they're terrible, and look to continue being terrible.  Now, much of that is due to other bad contracts (Pujols, Hamilton, CJ Wilson, Weaver, etc.), but if a team like the Orioles gave any one player 30-35M per year, there just isn't enough money left to fill out the rest of the roster with quality players.

If you can consolidate nine wins in one slot of the 25 man it should make the rest of your roster construction easier.

You can take Trout at 35 million and add a Trey Mancini for the league minimum and get significantly more value than the O's did with Jones and Davis last year.  My guess is that will be true in 2017 as well.