How many games will the Orioles win in 2017?

[foxfield]

I am going to say 82-85 wins and hope that Tillman is not an issue for the entire season.  But this number assumes he is on the shelf quite a bit.  If not there is more upside....of course...there is the other side as well.  

[canonfaz]

I'm guessing right around 90 wins.

[canonfaz]

Went back and looked at last years win poll. Webbrick2010, looks like you are also the only one last year to select 73 or fewer wins for 2016. Here's to hoping you're wrong again! Have faith man!

1 hour ago, webbrick2010 said:

73-89

Bad starting pitching

Bad OF defense... or bad hitting from COF'ers (pick your poison)

Trumbo & Davis hit a combined .225 while striking out 450 times

Automatic out at SS (Hardy), or during his 40 off days (Flaherty/Janish)

 

 

[webbrick2010]

2 minutes ago, canonfaz said:

Went back and looked at last years win poll. Webbrick2010, looks like you are also the only one last year to select 73 or fewer wins for 2016. Here's to hoping you're wrong again! Have faith man!

Yep they amaze me every year and I pretty much expect them to over achieve again, but on paper I don't see it.

 

 

[MDtransplant757]

I think so. Smith is another OBP guy that will help, Mancini can effectively hit LHP. Trumbo won't be playing in RF. I like our depth better than last year in the OF and in the SP too. No Gallardo and him being replaced with Aquino/Ynoa/Whoever the hell is going to be interesting and do better than Gallardo

[canonfaz]

17 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

 

I think you focus too much on the weakness of the team and don't give enough weight to the positive. 

Your analysis about the poor outfield defense, starting pitching, and high strikeouts is absolutely true, but they will be nutralized by our power, bullpen, and infield defense. 

Plus Buck probably accounts for a win or 3 (wildcard game decisions notwithstanding).

[Frobby]

I like their position players better, and there's a bit more depth.    But it boils down to the starting pitching, which could be better but also could be worse, especially if Tillman doesn't bounce back strong.   

[El Gordo]

46 minutes ago, canonfaz said:

I think you focus too much on the weakness of the team and don't give enough weight to the positive. 

Your analysis about the poor outfield defense, starting pitching, and high strikeouts is absolutely true, but they will be nutralized by our power, bullpen, and infield defense. 

Plus Buck probably accounts for a win or 3 (wildcard game decisions notwithstanding).

It's not absolutely true. Smith is a defensive upgrade over Trumbo and the addition of Gentry is a big boost to OF defense. Plus given their splits you are looking at 350+OBP from COF. Maybe you hget 225 K's from Davis and Trumbo but you'll also get 80+ HR and 180 RBI. The big weakness is SP.

[Spy Fox]

I think the offense can be slightly better if healthy but I expect it to be about the same. I doubt the bullpen can quite match last year but they should still be good. 

I actually think IF Gausman and Bundy stay healthy the starting pitching can be better even if Tillman is hurt or struggles some. Last year Gallardo/Jimenez/Miley/Wilson/Wright combined for a 5.53 ER in 483 innings by my count. That's very bad. I'm optimistic the bottom half of the rotation can be a good bit better than that with modest improvements from Ubaldo and Miley and some contributions from a stronger list of depth SPs. 

[Tryptamine]

I was going to do a long drawn out one, but I'll just say somewhere from 80-87 is my guess. Unless Trumbo goes on another career defying run or the SP performs significantly better than it appears, I just can't see anymore.

[weams]

4 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I was going to do a long drawn out one, but I'll just say somewhere from 80-87 is my guess. Unless Trumbo goes on another career defying run or the SP performs significantly better than it appears, I just can't see anymore.

Where are you on the Cubs? And are they better?

[Tryptamine]

Just now, weams said:

Where are you on the Cubs? And are they better?

Offensively, with the additions of Schwarber and a full season of Contreras, I think that more than offsets losing Dexter Fowler.Though Almora had a great spring. Pitching, I know it's just spring training, but I am not real thrilled with what I've seen from lackey,Anderson and Montgomery and even Arrieta as he's looking exactly like the guy who was mediocre in the 2nd half of last year. Rondon is looking just awful out of the pen and Wade Davis hasn't looking great either, but I'll give him some time since he's coming off arm issues. Long story short, they'll still be very good, but they wont put up a record like last year. 93-97 is my guess, coming off a season of 103.

[OFFNY]

o

 

 

Even though I voted between 89-92 wins, I'm going to go a little higher in my official "In Lights" prediction.

Last year I predicted 89-73, and they finished ........ 89-73.

 

 

OOo...lllllloollllllllllllllllllll 94 - 68

 

OOlllllllllllllllllllllllllllllloo WORLD SERIES

 

))lllllllllllllllllllllllll New York Mets OOOll.. - l 4 l Games

))lllllllllllllllllllllllll Baltimore Orioles ))llll.o - l 3 l Games

 

Oll))llllllllllollllllllllllllllllllllllllllllOOOoo OR

 

))llllllllllllllllllllllllll St. Louis Cardinals O)l - l 4 l Games

))llllllllllllllllllllllllll Baltimore Orioles OlO) - l 3 l Games

 

o

[weams]

4 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Offensively, with the additions of Schwarber and a full season of Contreras, I think that more than offsets losing Dexter Fowler.Though Almora had a great spring. Pitching, I know it's just spring training, but I am not real thrilled with what I've seen from lackey,Anderson and Montgomery and even Arrieta as he's looking exactly like the guy who was mediocre in the 2nd half of last year. Rondon is looking just awful out of the pen and Wade Davis hasn't looking great either, but I'll give him some time since he's coming off arm issues. Long story short, they'll still be very good, but they wont put up a record like last year. 93-97 is my guess, coming off a season of 103.

Good take. 

[canonfaz]

1 hour ago, El Gordo said:

It's not absolutely true. Smith is a defensive upgrade over Trumbo and the addition of Gentry is a big boost to OF defense. Plus given their splits you are looking at 350+OBP from COF. Maybe you hget 225 K's from Davis and Trumbo but you'll also get 80+ HR and 180 RBI. The big weakness is SP.

True, but that may even out a little when you consider that Mancini (who has VERY little outfield experience) is probably going to get some starts in RF. It can't be any worse than last year, but I don't see a much difference in the OF unless Gentry becomes a consistent starter. Smith is still a below average fielder, although, much better than Trumbo. It may be slightly better than last year, but IMO the outfield defense is still below average. Maybe another year of experience will help Rickard become a better outfielder though.

It would be fun to see a few games with an outfield of Jones, Rickard, and Gentry.