The window is a myth

[weams]

"Aging Adam Jones" Aging Capt10America

[WEAVERMAN]

Good thoughts wildcard, let's get MM signed.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, weams said:

"Aging Adam Jones" Aging Capt10America

Major America?

[Moondoggie]

5 minutes ago, weams said:

"Aging Adam Jones" Aging Capt10America

Well, he'll turn 34 during the 2019 season (since we're debating beyond the assumed 2018 window). Most likely he'll be better suited to a corner outfield spot by then. Even Captain America was discontinued in 1950 and saw his copyright expire (to the benefit of Stan Lee and Marvel Comics).

[wildcard]

13 minutes ago, weams said:

"Aging Adam Jones" Aging Capt10America

Everyone is aging.  Sisco is aging.  You and I are aging.   Me fasert than you probably.

[Moondoggie]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Everyone is aging.  Sisco is aging.  You and I are aging.   Me fasert than you probably.

Me faster than any of you.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Everyone is aging.  Sisco is aging.  You and I are aging.   Me fasert than you probably.

Yes, but it is against the odds that a group of 30+ players will be as good a year from now as they were a year ago.   Individual results vary, but the larger the group, the higher the odds of collective decline.    

[jabba72]

Would Manny even accept 10-$300m if they offered it today?  Im not sure. 

[Matt Bennett]

The window is a myth for any team (at least any team that isn't dirt poor) that develops well, with a special emphasis on starting pitching. Unfortunately, the Orioles do not develop starting pitching well at all. Which is why I believe our favorite "most winningest team over the last five years" is a little misleading. We have avoided seasonal duds like the Rangers, Tigers, and Redsox, but that stat implies we have been a dominant force in the league over that time and I think that is a bit of a stretch. The reason why we haven't taken that next step is because of our starting pitching. Honestly, would you fear any team with Wade Miley as their #3 and Ubaldo Jimenez as their #4?(Tillman is hurt). Over those last five years, only once has our starting pitching been average. That was 2014, the year we won the division. It's not a coincidence.

Meanwhile, the Orioles have traded away (given away) a whole starting rotation in the last few years that would probably be better than our rotation right now. I'm not even including Jake Arrieta, who shows that we can't develop, but he was in his fourth season here and showed no resemblance of a major league pitcher. Eduardo Rodriguez, Zach Davies, Steven Brault, Josh Hader, Andrew Triggs, Miguel Gonzalez too. I believe there is actually one more but I cannot seem to remember. Instead we have Mike Wright, Tyler Wilson, and Tim Berry. Bundy and Gausman are forminadle MLB SP's but there were about as close to major league ready as can be when we drafted them.

Teams can get away with this if we avoid bad contracts but we cannot do that either. Davis was a huge overpay. Do I need to mention Ubaldo Jimenez (4.4 ERA in the three years prior to his contract with Orioles)? We also need to work on moving on when it's time(Trumbo and Hardy, although I don't think Hardy was a horrible extension itself, I just wish Manny was planning short these last few years). I know reading this current paragraph, it's much easier to look back in hindsight but the main point I was trying to make is the window does not have to close if we can develop starting pitching. But we are truly awful at it.

[Frobby]

Starting pitching is only one aspect of baseball.    We've made the playoffs three times in five years and averaged 89 wins a season.    That's pretty good even if we weren't the '27 Yankees.  

[wildcard]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Yes, but it is against the odds that a group of 30+ players will be as good a year from now as they were a year ago.   Individual results vary, but the larger the group, the higher the odds of collective decline.    

 

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Yes, but it is against the odds that a group of 30+ players will be as good a year from now as they were a year ago.   Individual results vary, but the larger the group, the higher the odds of collective decline.    

I agree with this but the O's are adding young players and subtraction older players most years.  Dan is normally pretty good at it.  This year he strayed a little by adding Smith and Gentry but that is most a one year thing.  Players like Sisco, Liranzo, Ynoa and Aquino should help they team later this year. Manny, Schoop, Bundy and Gausman are high value players that are young.  Mancini is being added this year. Rickard and Hart last year.  Givens and Wilson still only at 27.  

[wildcard]

3 hours ago, jabba72 said:

Would Manny even accept 10-$300m if they offered it today?  Im not sure. 

10/300 would be the highest annual contract for that term ever.  And the 2nd highest baseball contract in history.  Stanton got 325m but that was over 13 years which is 25m per year average.   If Manny and his agent would not jump at the highest contract ever I think they are a little nuts.  I think they would love to get that kind of an offer.

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, Matt Bennett said:

The window is a myth for any team (at least any team that isn't dirt poor) that develops well, with a special emphasis on starting pitching. Unfortunately, the Orioles do not develop starting pitching well at all. Which is why I believe our favorite "most winningest team over the last five years" is a little misleading. We have avoided seasonal duds like the Rangers, Tigers, and Redsox, but that stat implies we have been a dominant force in the league over that time and I think that is a bit of a stretch. The reason why we haven't taken that next step is because of our starting pitching. Honestly, would you fear any team with Wade Miley as their #3 and Ubaldo Jimenez as their #4?(Tillman is hurt). Over those last five years, only once has our starting pitching been average. That was 2014, the year we won the division. It's not a coincidence.

Meanwhile, the Orioles have traded away (given away) a whole starting rotation in the last few years that would probably be better than our rotation right now. I'm not even including Jake Arrieta, who shows that we can't develop, but he was in his fourth season here and showed no resemblance of a major league pitcher. Eduardo Rodriguez, Zach Davies, Steven Brault, Josh Hader, Andrew Triggs, Miguel Gonzalez too. I believe there is actually one more but I cannot seem to remember. Instead we have Mike Wright, Tyler Wilson, and Tim Berry. Bundy and Gausman are forminadle MLB SP's but there were about as close to major league ready as can be when we drafted them.

Teams can get away with this if we avoid bad contracts but we cannot do that either. Davis was a huge overpay. Do I need to mention Ubaldo Jimenez (4.4 ERA in the three years prior to his contract with Orioles)? We also need to work on moving on when it's time(Trumbo and Hardy, although I don't think Hardy was a horrible extension itself, I just wish Manny was planning short these last few years). I know reading this current paragraph, it's much easier to look back in hindsight but the main point I was trying to make is the window does not have to close if we can develop starting pitching. But we are truly awful at it.

I think you will find that having three Top of the Rotation starters that are home developed is pretty rare and puts the O's at or close to the top in all of baseball.  Tillman was not drafted by the O's but he was sure developed by them.

[El Gordo]

I'll close that window when I come to it.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

 

I agree with this but the O's are adding young players and subtraction older players most years.  Dan is normally pretty good at it.  This year he strayed a little by adding Smith and Gentry but that is most a one year thing.  Players like Sisco, Liranzo, Ynoa and Aquino should help they team later this year. Manny, Schoop, Bundy and Gausman are high value players that are young.  Mancini is being added this year. Rickard and Hart last year.  Givens and Wilson still only at 27.  

My concern is that many of the guys who are the core of our starting lineup are getting to the age where decline is expected.  We are bringing up young guys for the peripheral spots, but it's been 3 years since we have brought up an impact talent (Schoop).     Maybe Rickard or Mancini will prove to be an impact guy (which I'd define as a player who can produce 2+ WAR per year), but I tend to doubt it.    I'll be happy if they prove me wrong.