2017 4th round pick (128): Jack Conlon - RHP - Clements HS (TX)

[weams]

18 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

 

 

So did the Oriole's really not even given Conlon the 40% offer to ensure they get a comp pick next year? That's the only way Conlon could possibly become a FA.

Only the top three rounds are protected. 

[weams]

17 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I've never said Dan doesn't do his job.

The question is how does this fit into his job?

It makes no sense for the Orioles  to not extend a 40% offer they know won't be accepted.  No gain exists for them in that scenario. 

There is no compensation for not signing him. So letting him sign wherever is a gift to him. It's a win win. 

[weams]

13 hours ago, Three Run Homer said:

After reading the discussion above, I'm still not clear about one thing.  Had the O's offered him the 40 percent (164K) contract and had Conlon turned that offer down, would the O's have gotten a comp pick next year or not?  

 

No, they would not have.  For certain.

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, weams said:

There is no compensation for not signing him. So letting him sign wherever is a gift to him. It's a win win. 

I don't blame the orioles at all here. If you fail the physical we can't sign you. Sorry. 

I think it will be a good experiment to see what a guy like this would be worth on the open market. Just to see the bias if the Cubs, Yanks or Sawx sign him. He will instantly be ranked as a top 150 player and they will be geniuses. 

[Luke-OH]

16 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I don't blame the orioles at all here. If you fail the physical we can't sign you. Sorry. 

I think it will be a good experiment to see what a guy like this would be worth on the open market. Just to see the bias if the Cubs, Yanks or Sawx sign him. He will instantly be ranked as a top 150 player and they will be geniuses. 

I think people would be more willing to give the O's a pass if this was the only questionable draft or international signing move. I'm waiting for more information to come out before I judge too harshly, but to lose the 4th round pick is one thing, but to lose the 4th round pick and also waste about 500k of pool space is hard to excuse.  

[Can_of_corn]

2 hours ago, weams said:

There is no compensation for not signing him. So letting him sign wherever is a gift to him. It's a win win. 

Letting another team sign him at reduced cost is a loss.  I'll agree it's a win for the player.

[sportsfan8703]

4 hours ago, phillyOs119 said:

I think people would be more willing to give the O's a pass if this was the only questionable draft or international signing move. I'm waiting for more information to come out before I judge too harshly, but to lose the 4th round pick is one thing, but to lose the 4th round pick and also waste about 500k of pool space is hard to excuse.  

Can't lump the international signings in with this. It's separate. I'm pretty sure that we've spent all our money that this modern pool structure has been in place. This is similar to Hughes a few years ago, just no compensation for us. 

We've been drafting really well here recently. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Can't lump the international signings in with this. It's separate. I'm pretty sure that we've spent all our money that this modern pool structure has been in place. This is similar to Hughes a few years ago, just no compensation for us. 

We've been drafting really well here recently. 

I'm pretty sure the O's spent ~6M of their pool of 6,846,700.

For the record they spent 8.8M in 2009.

[Luke-OH]

44 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Can't lump the international signings in with this. It's separate. I'm pretty sure that we've spent all our money that this modern pool structure has been in place. This is similar to Hughes a few years ago, just no compensation for us. 

We've been drafting really well here recently. 

I agree we've been drafting well lately which makes it worse that pool money that went unspent even more of a waste IMO.

[Cumberbundy]

It wouldn't make any sense not to offer slot. We can't do anything with it, what's the worst case scenario v the best case. Teams don't fail to sign guys in the top 10 rounds, but the O's are making a habit of it. Draft a 5,000 player and maybe we have enough for Jones?

[Tony-OH]

On 7/8/2017 at 10:03 AM, Otter said:

Just a bizarre and disappointing draft any way you look at it.  Taking 5 senior signs in the first 10 rounds is unusual to say the least; unless you are saving money to sign overslots later.  But then we fail to sign any overslots, and are now stuck with 5 senior signs when we could have drafted some legitimate prospects with 2-3 of those picks.  Furthermore, we took Conlon's best friend in the 5th round (much higher than he was expected to go), perhaps as a package deal or an incentive for Conlon to sign.  That backfired as well.  It's obviously much too early to judge a draft, but at this point it looks like we punted on our 4th-10th round picks.  Add in no overslots signed after the 10th round and this is an extremely thin draft to add to an already thin farm system.  I was hoping this would be a draft to stock up on high upside prospects to bolster our weak system, but instead we have one great prospect (DL), one interesting prospect (Hall), and not much else I'm excited about.

It's like one of those last drafts a scouting director has before he's let go. The drafting has not been good for years and Rajsich has now had six drafts and the system is one of the worse in baseball. Grant it part of it is the organization's aversion to the international market, but let's face it, the system is not exactly drafting a developing many impact big leaguers.

[Tony-OH]

On 7/8/2017 at 0:11 PM, Obando said:

As mentioned in a previous post, I was told by a fairly reliable source that the O's had a deal with Cameron Bishop for somewhere in the $500-600k range and flew him to Baltimore from to Cape Cod league to sign the contract and take a physical.  I was expecting it to be announced by the deadline yesterday, and was surprised that it wasn't.  I have no clue what happened, but that is where the pool savings was going.  One can only assume that Angelos pulled his physical shenanigans once again and the deal was killed or didn't get submitted by the 5 pm deadline.  I was very disappointed about this.  Even though Bishop's upside is not as high as Conlon, I thought he was a solid consolation prize in lieu of Conlon.  He was pretty highly thought of prior to the season but got hurt before the first game and missed the entire season.  However, he was pitching in the Cape and dominated in his most recent outing, which Duquette was present for.  He's a big LHP with a mid 90's fastball and solid secondaries.  Would have been a nice addition to the system.  But oh well!

So much strangeness about all of this. I'd like to give the Orioles the benefit of the doubts but hard to with the way they've been going about things of late.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

It's like one of those last drafts a scouting director has before he's let go. The drafting has not been good for years and Rajsich has now had six drafts and the system is one of the worse in baseball. Grant it part of it is the organization's aversion to the international market, but let's face it, the system is not exactly drafting a developing many impact big leaguers.

He could have had two more second round and five more first round picks to help his cause.  (I'm not counting the loss of the Cruz pick since it turned into a first rounder the next year.)

[Luke-OH]

16 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

It's like one of those last drafts a scouting director has before he's let go. The drafting has not been good for years and Rajsich has now had six drafts and the system is one of the worse in baseball. Grant it part of it is the organization's aversion to the international market, but let's face it, the system is not exactly drafting a developing many impact big leaguers.

I have to disagree, I think Rajsich has done a solid job drafting.  When looking at the system, I consider that we haven't really added significant talent through trades (most top systems have).  We've lost solid (albeit not star level talent) through trades.  We don't pursue the international market, and we have given up 7-8 picks in the first two rounds in this time.

Here are the number of draft picks in the top 10 lists of the top three systems according to Baseball America 

1. Atlanta - 4 draft picks 

2. Yankees - 5 draft picks

3. Houston - 5 draft picks

According to my amateur attempt at a mid-season top 30 I have all of the top 10 prospects being drafted by the O's even if you don't count this year's draftees.  Imagine our system depth if we had a couple of FV 50+ international signings and a couple of FV 50+ prospects acquired in trades. That would be a top 5 system.  

I also have a hard time believing that the sloppiness with getting guys signed comes from Rajsich.

 

[Tony-OH]

16 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

I have to disagree, I think Rajsich has done a solid job drafting.  When looking at the system, I consider that we haven't really added significant talent through trades (most top systems have).  We've lost solid (albeit not star level talent) through trades.  We don't pursue the international market, and we have given up 7-8 picks in the first two rounds in this time.

Here are the number of draft picks in the top 10 lists of the top three systems according to Baseball America 

1. Atlanta - 4 draft picks 

2. Yankees - 5 draft picks

3. Houston - 5 draft picks

According to my amateur attempt at a mid-season top 30 I have all of the top 10 prospects being drafted by the O's even if you don't count this year's draftees.  Imagine our system depth if we had a couple of FV 50+ international signings and a couple of FV 50+ prospects acquired in trades. That would be a top 5 system.  

I also have a hard time believing that the sloppiness with getting guys signed comes from Rajsich.

 

You can have any opinion you like, but go ahead and tell us about all the impact major league talent Rajsich has drafted. Tell me about all the major league ready starters in the system? Tell me about one everyday shortstop  prospect in the system. 

Out of the three best position prospects in the system, two have unknown positions at the major league level.

So besides the lack of legitimate major league starting prospects, any infield prospects, and lack of legitimate impact talent, please let us know why you think Rajsich has done such a great job?

As for signing guys, he's done a good job up until this year and I don't have the whole story so I'm not blaming him for the Conlon thing at all. What I am saying is he's had 6 drafts and the system is one of the worse in baseball. 

His best draft pick so far has been Trey Mancini, and he's a development success story after making adjustments after a terrible Delmarva year.