2017 4th round pick (128): Jack Conlon - RHP - Clements HS (TX)

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Chavez Ravine said:

I think the more fundamental thing is that they were so discouraged by the physical that they didn't offer the 1 million or whatever he was originally looking for. If you were going to leave the money on the table anyway, why not gamble? Turn him into a knuckleballer. Coming up snake eyes is not going to break the bank. That physical must have really been prognosis negative.

I can see not offering the 40% just to be nice.  That seems ancillary to the bigger question.

Nice is dumb.  Nice helps one of the other 29 teams.

[Can_of_corn]

11 minutes ago, Number5 said:

Again, we have no reason to assume that DD didn't discuss a lesser offer only to find that it would have no chance.  Given that, no offer seems a reasonable course, unless you want to play hard ball and force the kid to go to college.  I disagree with you on that, as I said before.  I just see no benefit to that tactic.

It keeps another team from getting a player that could potentially hurt you for reduced cost.

[Chavez Ravine]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Nice is dumb.  Nice helps one of the other 29 teams.

Yeah, but the risk is small....perhaps a tad less than the smidgeon of good will the area scout might acquire?

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Chavez Ravine said:

Yeah, but the risk is small....perhaps a tad less than the smidgeon of good will the area scout might acquire?

Is a speck less than a smidgeon?

If so I think speck is overstating the value.

I am very interested on if he signs with another team, what he gets and what the issue was with the physical.

[Number5]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

It keeps another team from getting a player that could potentially hurt you for reduced cost.

I totally and completely understand what you have been saying.  I simply disagree with your opinion that playing hardball and forcing the kid to go to college without giving him the opportunity to see if he can latch on elsewhere is beneficial to the Orioles.  The Orioles have obviously decided that whatever the medical issue is, it prevents them from signing him at a number he would accept.  And, although you keep insisting that no effort was made to sign him at 164K, I believe that it is far more likely that their discussions with Hall's representation made it obvious that there was no chance of signing him for that.  After all, the college education is likely worth more than the 164K you are talking about.  If he won't sign for that with the Orioles, he won't with another team, either.  If another team wants to offer up over a million dollars, so be it.  I don't see that as hurting the Orioles.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Number5 said:

I totally and completely understand what you have been saying.  I simply disagree with your opinion that playing hardball and forcing the kid to go to college without giving him the opportunity to see if he can latch on elsewhere is beneficial to the Orioles.  The Orioles have obviously decided that whatever the medical issue is, it prevents them from signing him at a number he would accept.  And, although you keep insisting that no effort was made to sign him at 164K, I believe that it is far more likely that their discussions with Hall's representation made it obvious that there was no chance of signing him for that.  After all, the college education is likely worth more than the 164K you are talking about.  If he won't sign for that with the Orioles, he won't with another team, either.  If another team wants to offer up over a million dollars, so be it.  I don't see that as hurting the Orioles.

I don't see how another team getting a player without having to spend a draft pick or use slot money doesn't hurt the Orioles.  The O's get nothing out of a fourth round pick and another team gets a player at reduced cost.  That hurts the O's.  Now it might be a small amount of pain but it does hurt the team.

[Number5]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't see how another team getting a player without having to spend a draft pick or use slot money doesn't hurt the Orioles.  The O's get nothing out of a fourth round pick and another team gets a player at reduced cost.  That hurts the O's.  Now it might be a small amount of pain but it does hurt the team.

We have no chance of agreeing.  To me, potentially saving a relationship is worth far more than not allowing a kid to sign elsewhere when we have zero interest in signing him.  I've got nothing new to say, do you?

[sportsfan8703]

The guy failed the physical. It's sucks for all parties but can't blame the orioles.

People laugh at the failed physicals but they have helped us way more than they've hurt us. Grant Balfour didn't pitch up to his contract. Tyler Colvin was indeed hurt. Gallardo saw his contract get knocked down to a 2 year deal. 

Just the way it goes. Wish we would've used the 500k saved on underslots to sign some of the 11-40 picks. 

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The guy failed the physical. It's sucks for all parties but can't blame the orioles.

People laugh at the failed physicals but they have helped us way more than they've hurt us. Grant Balfour didn't pitch up to his contract. Tyler Colvin was indeed hurt. Gallardo saw his contract get knocked down to a 2 year deal. 

Just the way it goes. Wish we would've used the 500k saved on underslots to sign some of the 11-40 picks. 

I can blame the Orioles for not offering the 40%.

I can blame them for not having a fallback plan for the savings.

[Obando]

I had heard that Cameron Bishop, our 26th round pick from UC Irvine, flew to Baltimore from the Cape Cod League yesterday to sign an above slot contract.  Duquette went to see him pitch earlier this week and he dominated.  I was expecting him to sign using the savings from the top 10 rounds, essentially as a replacement for Conlon.  All day I was waiting for an announcement that never came.  Even Keith Law, in his chat this afternoon, said he heard we were signing Bishop too.  It wouldn't shock me if he failed the physical too, the way things have been going.  Otherwise, why would he fly to Baltimore to sign a contract?  I'm just so sick of having to sweat out every player we come to an agreement with, whether it's a major league player or a draft pick, as we know our physical is seemingly harder to pass than any other teams.

To be fair, Angelos' stringent physical has ended up saving us from bad deals in the past, but still, it just seems like we play by a different set of standards than every other team, and we always come out looking like idiots.  Most notably when it comes to not spending money internationally.

Unfortunately, it's starting to feel like 1998-2011 all over again, and that is a time I don't think any of us want to relive again after 5 years of mostly winning baseball.

[Three Run Homer]

After reading the discussion above, I'm still not clear about one thing.  Had the O's offered him the 40 percent (164K) contract and had Conlon turned that offer down, would the O's have gotten a comp pick next year or not?   I see posts supporting both answers above.  

If the answer is no, then I have no problem with the O's withdrawing their offer.  Why rub salt in the wound by forcing Conlon back into the draft?  If the answer is that they just forfeited a comp pick just to be nice, then I do have a problem with that.  

[stef]

8 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

After reading the discussion above, I'm still not clear about one thing.  Had the O's offered him the 40 percent (164K) contract and had Conlon turned that offer down, would the O's have gotten a comp pick next year or not?   I see posts supporting both answers above.  

If the answer is no, then I have no problem with the O's withdrawing their offer.  Why rub salt in the wound by forcing Conlon back into the draft?  If the answer is that they just forfeited a comp pick just to be nice, then I do have a problem with that.  

No compensation for unsigned picks outside of first three rounds.

[Otter]

Just a bizarre and disappointing draft any way you look at it.  Taking 5 senior signs in the first 10 rounds is unusual to say the least; unless you are saving money to sign overslots later.  But then we fail to sign any overslots, and are now stuck with 5 senior signs when we could have drafted some legitimate prospects with 2-3 of those picks.  Furthermore, we took Conlon's best friend in the 5th round (much higher than he was expected to go), perhaps as a package deal or an incentive for Conlon to sign.  That backfired as well.  It's obviously much too early to judge a draft, but at this point it looks like we punted on our 4th-10th round picks.  Add in no overslots signed after the 10th round and this is an extremely thin draft to add to an already thin farm system.  I was hoping this would be a draft to stock up on high upside prospects to bolster our weak system, but instead we have one great prospect (DL), one interesting prospect (Hall), and not much else I'm excited about.

[hoosiers]

What a cluster.  Have to agree with Otter that this draft suddenly turned into a pretty mediocre one with Conlon not healthy and in the fold.  Leaving the draft with Hall, Hall and Conlon - three $1M+ guys - would have been well orchestrated by our draft guys.  If we don't spend the underslot savings, it would be very disappointing.

I would applaud the Os for granting Conlon free agency status - doing what is in the best interest of the kid. 

One interesting play here is whether the Os still tried to sign Conlon to a lesser number because if Conlon takes less than slot then the Os would have actually freed up more $ to sign guys after round 10.

[Obando]

As mentioned in a previous post, I was told by a fairly reliable source that the O's had a deal with Cameron Bishop for somewhere in the $500-600k range and flew him to Baltimore from to Cape Cod league to sign the contract and take a physical.  I was expecting it to be announced by the deadline yesterday, and was surprised that it wasn't.  I have no clue what happened, but that is where the pool savings was going.  One can only assume that Angelos pulled his physical shenanigans once again and the deal was killed or didn't get submitted by the 5 pm deadline.  I was very disappointed about this.  Even though Bishop's upside is not as high as Conlon, I thought he was a solid consolation prize in lieu of Conlon.  He was pretty highly thought of prior to the season but got hurt before the first game and missed the entire season.  However, he was pitching in the Cape and dominated in his most recent outing, which Duquette was present for.  He's a big LHP with a mid 90's fastball and solid secondaries.  Would have been a nice addition to the system.  But oh well!