Update on who the Rays might pick

[McNulty]

From BP's Kevin Goldstein:

As we close in on midnight, the draft is still, well, pretty much a mess, but there looks to be some direction finally with the Rays at number one overall. It’s not because they’ve made a decision on who is the best player, and it’s not because they’ve decided to go for ceiling (Tim Beckham) over certainty (Buster Posey). It’s because of money. On the final night of the draft, many decisions are made with checkbooks. Teams looking at multiple players begin to make calls to agents to gauge signability, and those discussions can help steer teams one way or the other. Late this evening, multiple sources have indicated as to Buster Posey’s draft-eve asking price, and it’s a doozy at $12 million. Right now, that looks like more than enough to make up the Rays mind, and they’ll likely be taking Tim Beckham unless that number reverses dramatically in the next 12 hours. The real question is to the reason for the number, as some believe it’s a posturing maneuver to drop Posey to a team with deeper pockets, though many feel that strategy would backfire, and somebody with a early pick will call the bluff.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=893

[Stotle]

All I can say is "Wow........"

If Beckham goes, BAL is likely looking at Matusz, huh?

TAM - Beckham

PIT - Alvarez

KAN - Hosmer/Smoak

BAL - Matusz

[McNulty]

I still can't believe we are considering taking a pitcher who has to work backwards in college with the number 4 pick. If we take Matusz you will hear me yelling all the way from Florida.

[wayne25]

I still can't believe we are considering taking a pitcher who has to work backwards in college with the number 4 pick. If we take Matusz you will hear me yelling all the way from Florida.

You and me both, this is just NUTS.

[Greg Pappas]

All I can say is "Wow........"

If Beckham goes, BAL is likely looking at Matusz, huh?

TAM - Beckham

PIT - Alvarez

KAN - Hosmer/Smoak

BAL - Matusz

That appears to be how this will play out... but you know the old adage, apperances can be deceiving. The Matusz things seems destined though.

[Answerman]

You won't hear any complaints out of me.

1) I am a firm believer in drafting pitching and paying for hitting. Pitchers with lesser skills than Matusz cost $12M per year on the market (Meche, Silva). To get one for six years at the rookie minimum is a great deal. You get much more for your money buying positional players, and their production is much more predictable.

2) With the influx of all these young 1Bs, won't that mean they are replacing some current starters around the league. We should be able to snatch an experienced 1B pretty easily as they start getting replaced by Dykstra, Wallace, Smoak, Hosner, etc.

3) With extra pitchers we can always trade to fill holes. Too bad we didn't have three Bedards to trade. We might be in contention now.

Just one man's ramblings.

[wickedwitch]

I still can't believe we are considering taking a pitcher who has to work backwards in college with the number 4 pick. If we take Matusz you will hear me yelling all the way from Florida.

Agreed.

I'm crossing my fingers for Smoak, but I'm not optimistic.

If we do take Matusz, I hope that it won't ruin the entire day for me. (And MacPhail and Jordan should have my feelings as their number one priority. )

[frode]

Can someone explain the phrase "has to work backwards" to me? I was thinking that was an asset or a strategy of choice, but apparently most of you don't.

Is it possible that it was just the way he was told to pitch? What does it mean in terms of talent?

[theonestevewh]

Can someone explain the phrase "has to work backwards" to me? I was thinking that was an asset or a strategy of choice, but apparently most of you don't.

Is it possible that it was just the way he was told to pitch? What does it mean in terms of talent?

I don't think he HAS to pitch backwards, he just thought he'd be more effective that way. He's playing to his strengths and the results clearly show he was right. Anyone who seriously doubts his standing as a prospect should read over Stotle's scouting report on him again. Take a look at the SO and SO/9 numbers.

[Fred Manfraud]

I have not followed this as closely as many of you. (And I would like to thank those who have for their info, links, and insight.) As exciting as it would be to have a power hitting prospect, I won't be upset if the Birds are able to take who they judge to be the top pitching prospect in the entire draft.

[eb45]

Not crazy about this meaning Matusz, but I really hope the Rays take Beckham.

[McNulty]

I don't think he HAS to pitch backwards, he just thought he'd be more effective that way. He's playing to his strengths and the results clearly show he was right. Anyone who seriously doubts his standing as a prospect should read over Stotle's scouting report on him again. Take a look at the SO and SO/9 numbers.

I defer to the great Kevin Goldstein about the stats:

Justin (Burbank): I'm trying to understand why scouts can't see Posey developing into a 25Hr plus guy? Isn't he performing at a really high level in a pretty competitive ACC?

Kevin Goldstein: Because college stats don't mean much more than high school ones? He's performing riduclously well in a very nice park, but scouts don't see all of the power translating in the pros. If you are looking for a good example of this, go look up Khalil Greene's numbers at Clemson.

Ben (San Diego): If your point with Khalil Greene is that the power hasn't transferred, well, last year he hit 27 homers while playing in the worst hitters park in the league. I'd say the power translated pretty well. Of course, the average and walks and not striking out haven't translated, but that was a big problem for him every year at Clemson except his senior one.

Kevin Goldstein: Excellent point! I picked the wrong guy. Go look up Jeremey Cleveland now (he went to UNC) and report back to me.

As far as the working backwards thing goes, if he doesn't have enough confidence to pitch off of his fastball, then something else is going on there. Not to mention the additional strain it puts on his elbow throwing all those offspeed pitches.

[RyanAdams420]

You won't hear any complaints out of me.

1) I am a firm believer in drafting pitching and paying for hitting. Pitchers with lesser skills than Matusz cost $12M per year on the market (Meche, Silva). To get one for six years at the rookie minimum is a great deal. You get much more for your money buying positional players, and their production is much more predictable.

2) With the influx of all these young 1Bs, won't that mean they are replacing some current starters around the league. We should be able to snatch an experienced 1B pretty easily as they start getting replaced by Dykstra, Wallace, Smoak, Hosner, etc.

3) With extra pitchers we can always trade to fill holes. Too bad we didn't have three Bedards to trade. We might be in contention now.

Just one man's ramblings.

But you're the answerman!

[Sports Guy]

I do not think the O's can justify taking Matusz or Crow over Gordon Beckham... everyone has Beckham around 7th or 8th in this draft.... how much difference can there be in rated ceiling between 4th and 7th or 8th?

Even if you have the pitchers rated slightly higher, this should be off-set by the historical data which shows college bats to be widely more successful than anything else (college pitchers, hs bats, hs pitchers).

Forget GBeck...How can you justify either of them over Smoak?

[theonestevewh]

I defer to the great Kevin Goldstein about the stats:

Justin (Burbank): I'm trying to understand why scouts can't see Posey developing into a 25Hr plus guy? Isn't he performing at a really high level in a pretty competitive ACC?

Kevin Goldstein: Because college stats don't mean much more than high school ones? He's performing riduclously well in a very nice park, but scouts don't see all of the power translating in the pros. If you are looking for a good example of this, go look up Khalil Greene's numbers at Clemson.

Ben (San Diego): If your point with Khalil Greene is that the power hasn't transferred, well, last year he hit 27 homers while playing in the worst hitters park in the league. I'd say the power translated pretty well. Of course, the average and walks and not striking out haven't translated, but that was a big problem for him every year at Clemson except his senior one.

Kevin Goldstein: Excellent point! I picked the wrong guy. Go look up Jeremey Cleveland now (he went to UNC) and report back to me.

As far as the working backwards thing goes, if he doesn't have enough confidence to pitch off of his fastball, then something else is going on there. Not to mention the additional strain it puts on his elbow throwing all those offspeed pitches.

I was stating that Matusz's college numbers backed up his effectiveness in working backwards. I don't see how that quote from Goldstein comparing college and high school stats shows anything other than Goldstein's opinion that college stats "don't mean much more" than HS stats.

The reason why he works backwards? I couldn't tell you for sure as I haven't seen anything from him stating as to why. I guess we could assume all day long on that one and I'm sure we will! If it is confidence in his fastball, then there should be concern. As far as strain on his elbow, with his current mechanical flaws, I do worry about future injuries.

You love you some Matusz... don't hate.