Can the O's reload for 2018 if they sell?

[Luke-OH]

Just now, ChuckS said:

Certainly. 

I would expect/hope Britton and Brach to each fetch 1-2 top 100 prospects. 

Brach is worth a top 100 guy, backend top 100.  Nick Neidart of the Mariners, Erick Fedde of the Nats would be likely targets.  I'd want a stronger headliner for Britton, someone like Buelher or Whitley if we're targeting pitchers (not that I think we should target pitchers, but it would be a necessity if we are trying to compete in 2018).

[backwardsk]

6 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

Brach is worth a top 100 guy, backend top 100.  Nick Neidart of the Mariners, Erick Fedde of the Nats would be likely targets.  I'd want a stronger headliner for Britton, someone like Buelher or Whitley if we're targeting pitchers (not that I think we should target pitchers, but it would be a necessity if we are trying to compete in 2018).

Don't you think Neidart and Whitley are a little too young to depend on in 2018?  Not saying I wouldn't want to get them, I just don't think it's good to rush a 20 and 21 year old into the rotation.  We'd still be looking at 3-4 SP needed for next season.

[ChuckS]

2 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

Don't you think Neidart and Whitley are a little too young to depend on in 2018?  Not saying I wouldn't want to get them, I just don't think it's good to rush a 20 and 21 year old into the rotation.  We'd still be looking at 3-4 SP needed for next season.

If we are only targeting guys who can help us in 2018, then we've already lost these trades. 

[Luke-OH]

4 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

Don't you think Neidart and Whitley are a little too young to depend on in 2018.  Not saying I wouldn't want to get them, I just don't think it's good to rush a 20 and 21 year old into the rotation.  We'd still be looking at 3-4 SP needed for next season.

I agree, but I guarantee they could be part of a off season trade package for a solid starter, or if we can fill the rotation otherwise, they are controllable pieces with some upside to help prevent sending the team back into the dark ages in order to be competitive one more year.

[backwardsk]

1 minute ago, phillyOs119 said:

I agree, but I guarantee they could be part of a off season trade package for a solid starter, or if we can fill the rotation otherwise, they are controllable pieces with some upside to help prevent sending the team back into the dark ages in order to be competitive one more year.

3 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

If we are only targeting guys who can help us in 2018, then we've already lost these trades. 

Again, I'd be thrilled to get those guys, especially Whitley, but in the context of this thread, they won't help us win in 2018.  Not like Buehler or Honeywell.

[ChuckS]

6 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

 

The problem is the value to cost.

The closer to the majors they are the higher their value is so a team is going to be less willing to part with those guys.  If we are set on acquiring guys who are major league ready we won't get the same value/upside back than with a player who is 1-2 years away.

[Number5]

2 hours ago, ChuckS said:

I think there is a bit of delusion going around on how much Britton or Brach can bring back.

It seems like many of us want to ignore that Zach Britton has missed two months of the season due to injury and has been much more hittable (1.60) WHIP in his limited appearances. You don't think other teams are going to use that against us when bargaining? If this was the Zach Britton of a year ago and not coming off an injury, I agree we may be able to land a Miller/Chapman type package. But that's not the case.

There could always be a team willing to overpay. I hope that happens, but I'm keeping my expectations in check.

 

I disagree.  The Orioles are not in panic mode - or at least they shouldn't be.  Teams in the playoff hunt with major holes in their bullpens are the ones pressed to make a trade here, not the Orioles.  Understand our leverage and use it.  The Orioles are in the drivers seat.  If not offered a Miller/Chapman type package - at a minimum - just say no.  Britton is more valuable now than either Miller or Chapman were at the time of those trades.  Britton and Brach can be retained for next season or traded for a strong package in the off season.  If the Dodgers, Astros, Cubs, or whoever only want to offer up lesser packages, we have zero reason to trade now. 

[bpilktree]

Yes they can rebuild with few moves.  

Britton to Dodgers for Alvarez, Stewart, Oaks.

Castillo to Rockies Yency Almonte

Brach to Twins Romero and Jay

C- Sisco/Joeseph

1B Davis

2b Schoop

SS Cozart or Manny

3b Manny or Nunez

LF Mancini

CF Hays

RF Jones

DH Trumbo

Sp Bundy

Sp Gausman

SP Tilman

SP Cobb

SP Oaks or Stewart

Rp O,day

RP Givens

RP Castro

RP Blier

RP Scott

RP Hart

 

I would sign Alex Cobb and also either Cozart or Nunez to 3 year deals 

 

[Hallas]

7 hours ago, ChuckS said:

I think there is a bit of delusion going around on how much Britton or Brach can bring back.

It seems like many of us want to ignore that Zach Britton has missed two months of the season due to injury and has been much more hittable (1.60) WHIP in his limited appearances. You don't think other teams are going to use that against us when bargaining? If this was the Zach Britton of a year ago and not coming off an injury, I agree we may be able to land a Miller/Chapman type package. But that's not the case.

There could always be a team willing to overpay. I hope that happens, but I'm keeping my expectations in check.

 

I think Britton can get us at least 1 top-50 prospect, and Brach should be able to get us 1 as well, albeit closer to the 50 end of that.

If we throw Brach in the trade pile then we assume that we will figure out the closer situation with our depth (not a terrible option to be honest.)

 

The biggest question to me is whether getting 2-3 top-50 prospects for our trade bait is enough for a 2018 reload.  The question becomes even more muddy because we don't know what Machado's going to do, so unless we can extend him (tough) we'd be looking at a painful 2019 no matter what we do.

so we can do one of these things:

• Reload for 2018, not resign Machado, rebuild with an eye on 2020-2021.
• Reload for 2018, resign Machado, and hopefully still have a competitive team going forward (albeit expensive)
• Full sale now, rebuild with an eye on 2019-2020.
• Be buyers. (don't laugh... ok don't laugh too hard.)

I'm not against the reload for 2018 plan - we can still be competitive going forward if we keep Machado.  We can also try and unload a contract if we need to.

Another question would be whether we can unload a contract such as Trumbo's or Davis's (they both limited no-trade, I can't imagine he won't waive it for the right club.)  We'd probably have to pay some money if we want a real prospect in return.

[wildcard]

3 hours ago, bpilktree said:

Yes they can rebuild with few moves.  

Britton to Dodgers for Alvarez, Stewart, Oaks.

Castillo to Rockies Yency Almonte

Brach to Twins Romero and Jay

C- Sisco/Joeseph

1B Davis

2b Schoop

SS Cozart or Manny

3b Manny or Nunez

LF Mancini

CF Hays

RF Jones

DH Trumbo

Sp Bundy

Sp Gausman

SP Tilman

SP Cobb

SP Oaks or Stewart

Rp O,day

RP Givens

RP Castro

RP Blier

RP Scott

RP Hart

 

I would sign Alex Cobb and also either Cozart or Nunez to 3 year deals 

 

Cobb will not sign with the O's as a free agent to play in Camden Yards IMO.

[Cumberbundy]

We need to find a SS, duqie has let us down at that spot. ?

[Camden_yardbird]

Given past connection to Cosart due to his plus defense I would not be surprised if we see him here.  That said the contract will be paying for his career year offensively and I would be surprised if we ever saw that offensive output out of him again.

[mdbdotcom]

29 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Given past connection to Cosart due to his plus defense I would not be surprised if we see him here.  That said the contract will be paying for his career year offensively and I would be surprised if we ever saw that offensive output out of him again.

I would hope we've learned from the JJ experience that signing a shortstop going into his age 32 season is not necessarily a good idea, regardless of what he's done in the past.

[hoosiers]

A main issue contending next year not really discussed is payroll.  It would be a pleasant surprise if ownership kept the payroll this high by signing some big free agents, but I am not so sure.  I think it could be dialed back a bit - which would be my preference anyway.  Perhaps ownership is taking much lower profits this year, and may take more next, but it sure would be nice to set aside $5M for our share of the international slots.  Our draft pool is likely to be $2M or so higher if we keep our supplemental pick plus drafting higher in each round.

[Teddy OBP]

On 7/20/2017 at 6:18 PM, wildcard said:

Cobb will not sign with the O's as a free agent to play in Camden Yards IMO.

We'd probably have to overpay by a decent chunk. I don't blame FA pitchers for being shy about OPAC, but man I'd love to see a guy with a bulldog mentality rise to the challenge one day.