ESPN insider O's trades

[paulcoates]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

So if he blows his elbow out next week the Orioles are going to tender him a contract for 2018?

I have seen a number of closers get hurt and then sign a multi year deal for a drastically reduced price. Even if that happens, there is no guarantee the Orioles won't be that team.  It all depends how much King Peter likes Britton.

[wildbillhiccup]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Can we get a sticky that says that Manny isn't a Boras client?

This is the third day in a row I've seen posters think that he is.

Does it really change the underlying sentiment of my comment? 

[Roll Tide]

20 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

The A's are going to get a lot more than that for Gray.  We'd be bidding against NYY and LAD - two of the best farm systems in baseball.

Why would we get Verdugo for Britton and the A's would only get Hays for Gray?  Gray is worth more than Britton. 

Art,

  With all due respect Gray has a 4.45 ERA in 16 starts pitching 1/2 in Oakland. To make matters worse he was putrid last year 6.15 ERA in 22 starts. Couldn't someone trading for him argue he's mediocre? Couldn't there be concern that he might revert back to the pitcher he was last year?

Britton hasn't been the player he was last year ...But since he's been back the results have been good despite, his velocity has been good, he ball/strike ratio is off. Again that indicates rust more than anything.

I'm worried about Gray personally, What if he ends up being as bad next year as he was last year?

 

 

[Roll Tide]

16 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Does it really change the underlying sentiment of my comment? 

He should mean that he's not as difficult to sigh if he has any interest in staying! And it shouldn't cost every last dollar as it would if Boras was involved.

[ArtVanDelay]

7 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Art,

  With all due respect Gray has a 4.45 ERA in 16 starts pitching 1/2 in Oakland. To make matters worse he was putrid last year 6.15 ERA in 22 starts. Couldn't someone trading for him argue he's mediocre? Couldn't there be concern that he might revert back to the pitcher he was last year?

Britton hasn't been the player he was last year ...But since he's been back the results have been good despite, his velocity has been good, he ball/strike ratio is off. Again that indicates rust more than anything.

I'm worried about Gray personally, What if he ends up being as bad next year as he was last year?

 

 

Where are you getting those stats?

Gray has a 3.43 ERA this year and 5.69 last year.  He was injured and had a bad year last year, as Britton has this year. 

Gray is arguably an ace or an excelllent #2 at least, and he's got 2.5 years of control left.  He's going to fetch a bigger return that Britton, easily. 

[ISU94]

3 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

Where are you getting those stats?

Gray has a 3.43 ERA this year and 5.69 last year.  He was injured and had a bad year last year, as Britton has this year. 

Gray is arguably an ace or an excelllent #2 at least, and he's got 2.5 years of control left.  He's going to fetch a bigger return that Britton, easily. 

Gray is no ace. He is a fringe #2 at best, likely a good #3. Ace gets thrown around too much. Ace's are guys like Chris Sale.

[Tx Oriole]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I thought it was one Johnson per Feller.   At least, for most of us!

?

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

Where are you getting those stats?

Gray has a 3.43 ERA this year and 5.69 last year.  He was injured and had a bad year last year, as Britton has this year. 

Gray is arguably an ace or an excelllent #2 at least, and he's got 2.5 years of control left.  He's going to fetch a bigger return that Britton, easily. 

He's also carrying a 1.37 ERA in his last six starts.    Nice timing for Oakland, unlike Britton's timing for the Orioles.   

[ArtVanDelay]

2 minutes ago, ISU94 said:

Gray is no ace. He is a fringe #2 at best, likely a good #3. Ace gets thrown around too much. Ace's are guys like Chris Sale.

Fringe #2 is under rating him quite a bit.  I won't argue with your definition of ace, but Gray is at least a high-end #2.  When he's healthy of course. 

[ISU94]

Just now, ArtVanDelay said:

Fringe #2 is under rating him quite a bit.  I won't argue with your definition of ace, but Gray is at least a high-end #2.  When he's healthy of course. 

A mid 3 ERA is a #2? I really don't see it. His k rate is solid this year but in past years it wasn't amazing either. A good #3 is very valuable, but a #2 level starter I see as more than Sonny Gray. 

[Roll Tide]

16 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

Where are you getting those stats?

Gray has a 3.43 ERA this year and 5.69 last year.  He was injured and had a bad year last year, as Britton has this year. 

Gray is arguably an ace or an excelllent #2 at least, and he's got 2.5 years of control left.  He's going to fetch a bigger return that Britton, easily. 

My fault I was looking at pitching value on BB Ref.

Does an ace have a year with a 5.69ERA? I would not value that as a number 2. Again couldn't you argue he could just as likely have a 5.69 next year? If the Orioles gave up 3 good prospects and he pitched to that would you be complaining about the trade?

[ArtVanDelay]

4 minutes ago, ISU94 said:

A mid 3 ERA is a #2? I really don't see it. His k rate is solid this year but in past years it wasn't amazing either. A good #3 is very valuable, but a #2 level starter I see as more than Sonny Gray. 

He's 24th among SP in fWAR this year.

21st in 2015

A top 25 pitcher isn't a #2?

 

[ISU94]

Just now, ArtVanDelay said:

He's 24th among SP in fWAR this year.

21st in 2015

A top 25 pitcher isn't a #2?

 

He's been good this year. K rate from 2014-2016 was in the mid 7's. FIP ranged from 3.46 to 4.67 in that span. Not putting those type of numbers as a #2 pitcher. 

[PaulFolk]

2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

My fault I was looking at pitching value on BB Ref.

Does an ace have a year with a 5.69ERA? I would not value that as a number 2. Again couldn't you argue he could just as likely have a 5.69 next year? If the Orioles gave up 3 good prospects and he pitched to that would you be complaining about the trade?

Sometimes a good pitcher can have a bad season, especially if injuries are involved. Gray's season by season ERAs are 2.67, 3.08, 2.73, 5.69, and 3.43. I think it's pretty clear which one is the outlier. So, no, it's not "just as likely" that he'll have a 5.69 next year. Possible, yes, but not likely.

[ArtVanDelay]

5 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Again couldn't you argue he could just as likely have a 5.69 next year?

I wouldn't say it's just as likely.  He's been pretty consistent throughout his career besides last year.