False: "Pitcher X's ERA will be a run higher in the AL East"

[Frobby]

I hear this argument all the time, with pitchers from Zach Davies to Ariel Miranda to Parker Bridwell to now Jeremy Hellickson.    Maybe that was true ten years ago, but it's not true now.   Major league teams are averaging 4.67 runs/game, and in the AL East, only the Yankees are above that figure.     Meanwhile, the AL East is a mere six games over .500, with no team projected to win more than 88 games.    It's simply not that tough a division to pitch in right now, notwithstanding that our team seems incapable of putting together a decent rotation.   And by the way, our pitchers have allowed 4.92 runs/game to our AL East rivals, and 5.81 runs/game against all other teams.

[Luke-OH]

Just now, Frobby said:

I hear this argument all the time, with pitchers from Zach Davies to Ariel Miranda to Parker Bridwell to now Jeremy Hellickson.    Maybe that was true ten years ago, but it's not true now.   Major league teams are averaging 4.67 runs/game, and in the AL East, only the Yankees are above that figure.     Meanwhile, the AL East is a mere six games over .500, with no team projected to win more than 88 games.    It's simply not that tough a division to pitch in right now, notwithstanding that our team seems incapable of putting together a decent rotation.   And by the way, our pitchers have allowed 4.92 runs/game to our AL East rivals, and 5.81 runs/game against all other teams.

More important is to look at a pitcher's FIP and xFIP(Fielding Independent Pitching and expected Fielding Independent Pitching respectively), these are better indicators of a pitcher's true talent than ERA alone.  They incorparate things pitchers have more control over, like strike outs, walks, GB%, FB%, and home runs allowed.  They aren't perfect statistics and a few pitchers can routinely pitch above or below their fielding independent #s but those players are uncommon (Matt Cain, Tillman to an extent).

[Number5]

Is Pitcher X available? 

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Number5 said:

Is Pitcher X available? 

Sure, for prospects A, B and C and some international slot money.   

[eddie83]

So when they let up a ton of fly balls and HR's in bigger parks they will do better in the AL East? 

[Bahama O's Fan]

I've always though it was a difference between NL and AL. Is that true?

[99ct]

1 hour ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

I've always though it was a difference between NL and AL. Is that true?

I am about to go look this up, but if you figure the average DH can get 80-100RBIs in a year, while the NL sends its pitchers to bat for the first six innings...it could easily be an 80run, or 0.5runs/game, difference

[99ct]

1 hour ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

I've always though it was a difference between NL and AL. Is that true?

http://rsnstats.com/42-years-and-counting/

...and here it is. Turns out the AL scores more than the NL, but the margin is much narrower than the 0.5 runs per game which I estimated. 

[OriolesMagic83]

Kershaw would be a middle of the rotation starter in the AL East. 

[eddie83]

Just now, OriolesMagic83 said:

Kershaw would be a middle of the rotation starter in the AL East. 

Let's add him and test that theory. 

[CanadianOriole]

Might not hold for all Pitcher X's - but Jeremy Hellickson with his terrible K and GB rates is going to be in tough to not be a full run higher than the 4.73 era he has currently. His peripherals would suggest his era was headed north anyway, but moving to the AL and Camden will only accelerate that likely result. He's not a great bet to beat 6.00 here the rest of the season. Ridiculous acquisition.

[Luke-OH]

6 minutes ago, CanadianOriole said:

Might not hold for all Pitcher X's - but Jeremy Hellickson with his terrible K and GB rates is going to be in tough to not be a full run higher than the 4.73 era he has currently. His peripherals would suggest his era was headed north anyway, but moving to the AL and Camden will only accelerate that likely result. He's not a great bet to beat 6.00 here the rest of the season. Ridiculous acquisition.

Yeah, his FIP is 5.50 which is terrible.

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

Yeah, his FIP is 5.50 which is terrible.

And pretty much in line with the rest of the rotation.

[Luke-OH]

13 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

And pretty much in line with the rest of the rotation.

Worse than Miley and Asher, significantly worse than Gausman and Bundy, a little better than Ubaldo (although his xFIP is worse than Ubaldo). Worse than Mike Wright (SSS of course).  Worse than Ynoa and Aquino's ZIPs and STEAMER MLB projections.  The only starter I'd say Hellickson could possibly be an improvement on is Tillman, who isn't right, and probably should be pitching anyways.

 

So that is 7 options for the rotation without Hellickson, not good options, but just as good or better than Hellickson. When Wright gets healthy that's 8. 

[Can_of_corn]

47 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

Worse than Miley and Asher, significantly worse than Gausman and Bundy, a little better than Ubaldo (although his xFIP is worse than Ubaldo). Worse than Mike Wright (SSS of course).  Worse than Ynoa and Aquino's ZIPs and STEAMER MLB projections.  The only starter I'd say Hellickson could possibly be an improvement on is Tillman, who isn't right, and probably should be pitching anyways.

 

So that is 7 options for the rotation without Hellickson, not good options, but just as good or better than Hellickson. When Wright gets healthy that's 8. 

I'd say you are not using a conventional definition of the word possibly.

I'm not even going to go into you using projections to declare that Hellickson couldn't possibly be an upgrade since that whole line of reasoning is ridiculous.

Let's just look at the big five and Hellickson, since they are the only ones with anything close to a useful sample size.

4.71

5.02

5.39

5.85

5.99

He is within .53 runs of 4/5ths the O's current rotation.  By my definition that puts him "pretty much in line" with the rest of them.

I would think that you would agree that .5 a run isn't a huge amount and that honestly anyone of the six players listed might perform the best over the rest of the season (With Gausman looking like the best candidate given his recent results).

By no means am I excited about the acquisition but the O's starting pitching has been bad enough that even as someone who has been as bad as Hellickson has been might be an improvement.