The Wildcard Race

[SteveA]

4 minutes ago, TradeAngelos said:

"Dangerous" I guess......but the writing is on the wall all over that clubhouse. They are in "pack it in" mode and I don't see them having much fight left. They are down 3 huge pieces and I don't think they are exactly chomping at the bit to fight scratch and claw for wins down the stretch.

This is a great time to be playing them and we couldn't really ask for a better spot, considering how hot we are right now. 

Yep, let's win 3 of 4 and head west with a winning record.

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, TradeAngelos said:

"Dangerous" I guess......but the writing is on the wall all over that clubhouse. They are in "pack it in" mode and I don't see them having much fight left. They are down 3 huge pieces and I don't think they are exactly chomping at the bit to fight scratch and claw for wins down the stretch.

This is a great time to be playing them and we couldn't really ask for a better spot, considering how hot we are right now. 

" Wuz ya ever bit by a dead bee?"

-- Eddie, To Have and Have Not

 

[sportsfan8703]

KC is losing 7-2 in the 5th.  They lose and we win, we'd be 1.5 GB of TB and KC for the last WC spot.  

[Tx Oriole]

On 8/3/2017 at 3:48 PM, Frobby said:

" Wuz ya ever bit by a dead bee?"

-- Eddie, To Have and Have Not

 

That was a great movie. 

[Lucky_13]

Three, count em three, in a row 

56-56

7 GB of 1st Place

4 GB of 1st wild card

1.5 GB of 2nd Wild card

Tampa plays boston starting tommorow. We can gain some more ground

 

[Moshagge3]

It's one of those weeks where you have root for Toronto and then take lots and lots of showers.

[sportsfan8703]

4 minutes ago, Lucky_13 said:

Three, count em three, in a row 

56-56

7 GB of 1st Place

4 GB of 1st wild card

1.5 GB of 2nd Wild card

Tampa plays boston starting tommorow. We can gain some more ground

 

I'll say it again; we're the best team out of the teams in the WC hunt. Give us one more SP and we are probably a bit better than the Yankees. We just have to keep getting good SP and grinding games out. 

[FlipTheBird]

8 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I'll say it again; we're the best team out of the teams in the WC hunt. Give us one more SP and we are probably a bit better than the Yankees. We just have to keep getting good SP and grinding games out. 

I appreciate your optimism, but the second half of this statement is just incorrect. The Yankees score more runs than we do. They allow fewer runs than we do. Their bullpen, after the additions at the deadline, is very, very good. Their starting rotation is leaps and bounds better than ours - so much so that Dylan Bundy is the only Oriole starter that could pitch for them.

They are a better baseball team.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, FlipTheBird said:

I appreciate your optimism, but the second half of this statement is just incorrect. The Yankees score more runs than we do. They allow fewer runs than we do. Their bullpen, after the additions at the deadline, is very, very good. Their starting rotation is leaps and bounds better than ours - so much so that Dylan Bundy is the only Oriole starter that could pitch for them.

They are a better baseball team.

Gausman, with the way he has been pitching in the last month, would certainly be in their rotation.

[riprulz8]

At 56-56 we have 50 games remaining in our season.  What does everyone think our record needs to be in order to nab that last wildcard?

Let's take a look at the Wildcards since the 2nd WC was instituted in 2012:

     2016:  O's and BJs = 89 wins; Giants and Mets = 87 wins
     2015:  Yanks = 87 wins, Astros = 86 wins; Pirates = 98 wins, Cubs = 97 wins
     2014:  KC = 89 wins, A's = 88 wins; Pirates and Giants = 88 wins
     2013:  Rays and Indians = 92 wins; Pirates = 94 wins, Reds = 90 wins
     2012:  Orioles and Rangers = 93 wins; Braves = 94 wins. Cardinals = 88 wins

Historically, the 2 WC teams have an average win total of 90.45 games, though recently (aside from the crazy NL WC in 2015) win totals have been a bit lower

Now 90 wins for the O's this year would mean a record of 34-16 in the last 50 for a .680 winning percentage.  In the 2000s, the best 50 game stretch by the Orioles was 35-15 for the 2014 team (http://bit.ly/2vJtnhD).  As an aside, the franchise record for best 50 game stretch is 38-12 set in 1966, 1969, and 1970 by some pretty incredible teams.

Barring a historical run, 90 wins seems out of the question.

A 30-20 mark (.600 winning percentage) gives us 86 wins.  Depending on how the Yanks/Royals/Rays/Mariners perform over the next 2 months, this MIGHT be enough to get us into that last spot, though only one team (2015 Astros) has made the post-season with such a low amount of wins since 2012.  

Playing at a .600 clip is no easy feat though - what does everyone think of our chances?

[Triple Crown]

10 minutes ago, riprulz8 said:

At 56-56 we have 50 games remaining in our season.  What does everyone think our record needs to be in order to nab that last wildcard?

Let's take a look at the Wildcards since the 2nd WC was instituted in 2012:

     2016:  O's and BJs = 89 wins; Giants and Mets = 87 wins
     2015:  Yanks = 87 wins, Astros = 86 wins; Pirates = 98 wins, Cubs = 97 wins
     2014:  KC = 89 wins, A's = 88 wins; Pirates and Giants = 88 wins
     2013:  Rays and Indians = 92 wins; Pirates = 94 wins, Reds = 90 wins
     2012:  Orioles and Rangers = 93 wins; Braves = 94 wins. Cardinals = 88 wins

Historically, the 2 WC teams have an average win total of 90.45 games, though recently (aside from the crazy NL WC in 2015) win totals have been a bit lower

Now 90 wins for the O's this year would mean a record of 34-16 in the last 50 for a .680 winning percentage.  In the 2000s, the best 50 game stretch by the Orioles was 35-15 for the 2014 team (http://bit.ly/2vJtnhD).  As an aside, the franchise record for best 50 game stretch is 38-12 set in 1966, 1969, and 1970 by some pretty incredible teams.

Barring a historical run, 90 wins seems out of the question.

A 30-20 mark (.600 winning percentage) gives us 86 wins.  Depending on how the Yanks/Royals/Rays/Mariners perform over the next 2 months, this MIGHT be enough to get us into that last spot, though only one team (2015 Astros) has made the post-season with such a low amount of wins since 2012.  

Playing at a .600 clip is no easy feat though - what does everyone think of our chances?

The historical stuff is fine and nice work, by the way, but all you need to know is we're just a game and a half out, definitely doable

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, FlipTheBird said:

I appreciate your optimism, but the second half of this statement is just incorrect. The Yankees score more runs than we do. They allow fewer runs than we do. Their bullpen, after the additions at the deadline, is very, very good. Their starting rotation is leaps and bounds better than ours - so much so that Dylan Bundy is the only Oriole starter that could pitch for them.

They are a better baseball team.

A little optimistic, I'll give you that. But why not?  

We've played the hardest schedule in baseball so far. 

https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/ranking/schedule-strength-by-other

Bal- 1

NYY- 14

Don't buy into the yankee hype. 

[ORIOLE33]

1 hour ago, FlipTheBird said:

I appreciate your optimism, but the second half of this statement is just incorrect. The Yankees score more runs than we do. They allow fewer runs than we do. Their bullpen, after the additions at the deadline, is very, very good. Their starting rotation is leaps and bounds better than ours - so much so that Dylan Bundy is the only Oriole starter that could pitch for them.

They are a better baseball team.

I think you're overrating them a bit. They're not THAT good. 

[Camden_yardbird]

1 hour ago, FlipTheBird said:

I appreciate your optimism, but the second half of this statement is just incorrect. The Yankees score more runs than we do. They allow fewer runs than we do. Their bullpen, after the additions at the deadline, is very, very good. Their starting rotation is leaps and bounds better than ours - so much so that Dylan Bundy is the only Oriole starter that could pitch for them.

They are a better baseball team.

The other way to look at this is:

Judge can back to earth and has not been great on awhile.  Hicks is coming of injury after playing way over his head.  Chapman is showing the signs of overuse from last year and is no sure thing.  Severing is breaking out but may be coming up to new frontiers as far as workload.  Sanchez was benched for defensive reasons.

I have thought the Yankees were a year early all year, and teams that are like that usually limp to the finish.

[Frobby]

As I posted yesterday, I think there's a better than even chance that 85 wins is sufficient to get the 2nd wild card.     Nobody has really stepped up.    The Royals and Rays are currently on pace to win 83 games each.   History since the second wild card was adopted shows that the final wild card cutoff has been no more than 2 games above where the cutoff was projected to be at this time of year.     Obviously this year could be an exception to that rule, but odds are that it won't be.    Remember,  KC and TB are playing roughly .514 ball, and the other WC contenders are below that.    To get to 85 wins, here's what the contenders would need to do:

KCR 28-23 .549

TBR 27-22 .551

SEA 28-21 .571

BAL 29-21 .580

MIN 31-21 .596

LAA 30-19 .612

TEX 32-19 .627

It's really not all that likely that one of these teams will exceed what they'd need to do to get to 85 win.