Is the long term strategy to build around Schoop and Manny?

[Cumberbundy]

8 hours ago, Lucky_13 said:

With Duquette deciding to buy at the deadline yesterday, it got me thinking about what the long term plan is for the Orioles (if they even have one).  The Beckham trade looks to me like a cheap way to fill in for the hole at SS next season and beyond. The only guy who is under a long term contract after 2018 is Davis. Bundy and Gausman are cheap and under control until 2020.. They have three outfield prospects in Hays, Stewart, and Mullins that can fill the RF hole next year for cheap.  Joseph, Wynns, and Sisco can catch for cheap. 

They back up the brinks truck to Schoop and Manny. 

2019 team 

C: Joseph or Sisco 

1B: Davis 

2B: Schoop 

3B: Manny 

SS: Beckham 

LF: Mountcastle or Stewart 

CF: Hays 

RF: Mullins 

DH: Mancini 

Now pitching would still be a problem and Harvey, Akin, and Sedlock along with some other guys would have to pan out to join Bundy and Gausmen in the rotation. But based on Duquette's moves this is the only plan I can think of that makes sense. 

This has been my hope. We have a core 5 and bullpen arms. We shouldn't fall as far behind as some suggest. We only replace stink if we keep the oriole park 5.

[Cumberbundy]

8 hours ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

I for one have said similar things.  If our $$ are locked up in Manny, Schoop and Davis... I think we have the pieces to put a contender around them with Sisco, Hays, Mullins, Mancini, etc. 

Santaclaus in. 

[Cumberbundy]

8 hours ago, Lucky_13 said:

Yeah everyone's saying that the future is so bleak. Olney and Law were saying that the organization was going to collapse if they didn't sell. But I think if we sign Manny and Schoop (big if) then they have enough cheap prospects to field a team. The best part is all these guys are playing at AA together. Kind of like how all the cubs prospects came up together

Not everyone. Nono.

[Cumberbundy]

8 hours ago, DirtyBird said:

Lowther!!

Omg. The Lowth. A Lowth in Balt is worth more than all the Yankees combined. 

[Cumberbundy]

8 hours ago, ORIOLE33 said:

How is Trumbo blocking Mancini when Mancini's an everyday player?

Maybe on Twitter.

[Cumberbundy]

7 hours ago, Flash- bd said:

Still can't believe we signed Trumbo to that deal. DD has made some terrible moves, but that has got to rank up there as one of the most obviously idiotic ones of the bunch. Signing a DH whose career year was a .850 OPS to a 3 year deal is really kinda embarrassing. 

DD was not a Mancini believer. Fortunately neither was the baseball community. 

[Cumberbundy]

5 hours ago, SteveA said:

This is how I see the priorities going into the offseason:

1)  Decide on the future of DD ... preferably either extend him or fire him, rather than go into next year as a lame duck.

2) Make every effort to extend Manny but if it is not going to happen, trade him for everything you can get to fill all the known holes we have as well as farm system depth.

3) Brach/Britton -- extend one, trade the other for whatever we can get

4) If Castillo exercises his player option, try to deal him.

  

4) Work on a  Schoop extension

5) Obviously you kick the tires on any type of deal for O'Day, Davis, or Trumbo, but it's unlikely you find any takers.

6) Then figure out how to fill the rotation spots behind Bundy and Gausman.   I want at least 5 viable candidates for those 3 spots.   Ideas:

     a.  Guys you received from Manny and Brach/Britton deal

     b.  Anyone currently at Norfolk ready to contend for a spot?   Sure doesn't look like it.   Maybe Aquino.

     c.  If Tillman has a solid finish for the season but no one wants to give him the long term big money deal, perhaps he comes back on a one year make good

     d.  Free agents:  no, we aren't going to go after Darvish, we'll be nibbling at the margins of the free agent market as always.   Would be nice to figure out who next year's Cashner is -- someone who isn't in big demand and will take a one year deal at reasonable cost and will turn out to be good.  

     e.  Miscellaneous:   Anyone ready to make the jump from AA like Long or Scott?   Seems unlikely but necessity might make it happen.   Convert Bleier or Castro to a starter?   Rule 5?

7) If DD is still the GM I'm sure he'll bring in plenty of spare parts to fill bench spots and add depth, he's good at that.

Beyond trying to win, what do we want to see the rest of this season at the major league level?

   -- is Tillman healthy enough to bring back on a one year make good deal?

   -- is Santander a nugget?

   -- do Bleier and Castro continue to be good out of the pen as the league sees them more?

   -- can we get something in August deals for Smith/Castillo, or even unload them for next to nothing?

   -- is Beckham an adequate SS for 2018/19/20?

Good post, SteveA! 

[Frobby]

21 hours ago, Lucky_13 said:

They signed Roberts, Markakis, JJ Hardy (twice), O'day, Davis, Trumbo. There is a precedent for Angelos shelling out money in extensions. 

Also Mora and Jones.   

[Camden_yardbird]

Say you can't sign Machado but you can lock up School.  If the Orioles breakdown a rebuild right, including trading Britton, Brach, and Machado this off season you could see a fairly competitive team even without Manny.

The Base:

Schoop, Davis, Bundy, Gausman, Mancini

The Prospects:

Cisco, Hays  (both top 100)

The unknown:

4 Top 100ish prospects from trades

The free agents:

$30-$45 in annual average salary

I would think something built around those four groups could be competitive.

[interloper]

1 hour ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Say you can't sign Machado but you can lock up School.  If the Orioles breakdown a rebuild right, including trading Britton, Brach, and Machado this off season you could see a fairly competitive team even without Manny.

The Base:

Schoop, Davis, Bundy, Gausman, Mancini

The Prospects:

Cisco, Hays  (both top 100)

The unknown:

4 Top 100ish prospects from trades

The free agents:

$30-$45 in annual average salary

I would think something built around those four groups could be competitive.

That's if Gausman decides he's actually  going to be a good pitcher. It's anybody's guess as to what kind of pitcher he will be in any given year. 

[Camden_yardbird]

43 minutes ago, interloper said:

That's if Gausman decides he's actually  going to be a good pitcher. It's anybody's guess as to what kind of pitcher he will be in any given year. 

Well, they have taken away his curve which isn't a good pitch and are allowing him to throw his change more.  It's a pitch he commands a lot better.  Now his change up and his splitter look like the same pitch coming out of the hand but do very different things when approaching the plate.  They did the same thing last year but apparently no one ever left McDowell the notes.

 

[Lucky_13]

24 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Well, they have taken away his curve which isn't a good pitch and are allowing him to throw his change more.  It's a pitch he commands a lot better.  Now his change up and his splitter look like the same pitch coming out of the hand but do very different things when approaching the plate.  They did the same thing last year but apparently no one ever left McDowell the notes.

 

It took them three months to realize his breaking ball is god awful? 

Slow learners

[osfan83]

On 8/1/2017 at 1:45 PM, joelala said:

We can sure as hell hope and pray that this is the plan, but I'm pretty pessimistic about us being able to do this.  Manny will command a 300 million dollar contract, and Schoop, based on his age and production would be a fool to take anything less than what we gave good 'ol Chris Davis.  That's loads of money that I personally don't see Angelos spending.  Not to mention, it will make it very, very hard to spend in the FA market to fill holes as they arise with this model. 

The most realistic thing I see happening is Manny walks next year after we are again buyers at the deadline, selling off more of our prospects (this time higher-end ones).  This of course leaves our organization completely throttled, we get a pick back for Manny, and we give Schoop close to 200m to lock him up long term.

I'm admittedly being pessimistic, but I just have no faith in us making sound, realistic decisions about our future.

 

I think DD and Buck will leave, and Rick Dempsey will fill both roles.

[Frobby]

51 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Well, they have taken away his curve which isn't a good pitch and are allowing him to throw his change more.  It's a pitch he commands a lot better.  Now his change up and his splitter look like the same pitch coming out of the hand but do very different things when approaching the plate.  They did the same thing last year but apparently no one ever left McDowell the notes.

 

I don't agree that's what they did last year.   Per BrooksBaseball, just looking at some of his best second half starts: 

July 23 (7 IP, 0 R) - 11 curveballs

August 23 (6 IP, 0 R) - 13 curveballs

August 28 (7 IP, 0 R) - 15 curveballs

Sept. 3 (6 IP, 0 R) - 12 curveballs

Sept. 14 (8 IP, 0 R) - 15 curveballs

In my opinion, one of the main reasons Gausman was so good in the 2nd half last year was that his curve was pretty effective.     This year it wasn't after his first couple of starts, and he's shelved it.

 

 

 

[Camden_yardbird]

48 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don't agree that's what they did last year.   Per BrooksBaseball, just looking at some of his best second half starts: 

July 23 (7 IP, 0 R) - 11 curveballs

August 23 (6 IP, 0 R) - 13 curveballs

August 28 (7 IP, 0 R) - 15 curveballs

Sept. 3 (6 IP, 0 R) - 12 curveballs

Sept. 14 (8 IP, 0 R) - 15 curveballs

In my opinion, one of the main reasons Gausman was so good in the 2nd half last year was that his curve was pretty effective.     This year it wasn't after his first couple of starts, and he's shelved it.

 

 

 

Fangraphs has some very different data.  Looks like there might be some confusion about what is his curve and what is his slider.  I know he went to a curve late in 2015 but I think he was throwing mostly slider last year?