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Well, that moved my needle


Frobby

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6 minutes ago, Number5 said:

Would you be upset if a team claimed Davis? 

There's a significant difference between Verlander and Davis.    Verlander came up with the Tigers, has been there 13 years, won a Cy Young and finished in the top 5 times, won an MVP, pitched in the World Series twice.     He's closer to being Jim Palmer than he is to being Chris Davis, in terms of the PR hit the team would take by waiving him.    And it's not like he's done as a pitcher (4.29 ERA this year), he just isn't worth $28 mm.

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9 hours ago, Frobby said:

So you're willing to pay him $56 mm at ages 35-36?   I'm not.    When pitchers get signed to these long term deals, it's because teams think they can eke out enough value on the front end to justify overpaying on the back end.    We didn't enjoy the value part, and I'm not willing to eat that kind of money for a pitcher who is still decent, but no longer dominant. 

It is interesting though, his velocity is still mid 90's.

Also, to the OP, KC has owned our souls since 2014, including 3 one run wins earlier this year. FEELS GREAT to utterly dominate them and bring them back to the pack. 

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1 minute ago, Frobby said:

There's a significant difference between Verlander and Davis.    Verlander came up with the Tigers, has been there 13 years, won a Cy Young and finished in the top 5 times, won an MVP, pitched in the World Series twice.     He's closer to being Jim Palmer than he is to being Chris Davis, in terms of the PR hit the team would take by waiving him.    And it's not like he's done as a pitcher (4.29 ERA this year), he just isn't worth $28 mm.

It was an example.  Point his Verlander's salary greatly outstrips his usefulness.  Claiming him would be a ridiculous move for the Orioles. 

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If Verlander was a free agent right now, what would you pay him over the next two years? Preferably I'd do 2/28 but I'd settle for 2/36. The Tiger's would have to eat at least 20 million of that contract and take Castillo back in a trade for me to do it. 

But coming back to a playoff race might rejuvenate Verlander a bit. And he might be a good veteran to have around Gausman 

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7 minutes ago, Number5 said:

It was an example.  Point his Verlander's salary greatly outstrips his usefulness.  Claiming him would be a ridiculous move for the Orioles. 

We are paying Ubaldo and Miley $24.5M this year. Once again it is a short term risk at an area of desperate need. You aren't getting  a pitcher with Verlander's ceiling this offseason for less than what he is owed. 

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6 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

We are paying Ubaldo and Miley $24.5M this year. Once again it is a short term risk at an area of desperate need. You aren't getting  a pitcher with Verlander's ceiling this offseason for less than what he is owed. 

Overpaying Ubaldo and Miley is hardly a good reason to take on another bad contract.  As I said, is is quite apparent that we will not come to an agreement on this.  The Tigers made it clear that they were willing to eat a chunk of what Verlander is owed in order to move him, and got no takers.  Suffice it to say, I am confident that the Orioles will not claim Verlander.

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11 minutes ago, Number5 said:

Overpaying Ubaldo and Miley is hardly a good reason to take on another bad contract.  As I said, is is quite apparent that we will not come to an agreement on this.  The Tigers made it clear that they were willing to eat a chunk of what Verlander is owed in order to move him, and got no takers.  Suffice it to say, I am confident that the Orioles will not claim Verlander.

We could discuss a deal once he clears waivers, though.    That wouldn't surprise me completely.

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Just now, Frobby said:

We could discuss a deal once he clears waivers, though.    That wouldn't surprise me completely.

Yes, that is a different story.  The Tigers would clearly have to eat a substantial amount of what Verlander is owed to facilitate a trade, as they've already said they are willing to do.  Filing a waiver claim, however, puts a team potentially on the hook for the full salary.

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Verlander would have been the best SP on the Os last year, by far.

2016: 16-9, 3.04 ERA, 227 IP, 254 Ks, 1.001 WHIP  (2nd in CY Young Vote)

He'd also have been (arguably) the best SP on the team this year.

2017: 6-7, 4.29 ERA, 130 IP, 126 Ks.

I know he's owed a ton of money, but SP help is going to be BY FAR our biggest need going forward. If the Os can get the Tigers to eat some of the contract is this really that crazy of an idea? Are the Os going to have a SP target in the offseason who will put up better numbers? I'm genuinely asking, because I don't know how much Verlander has regressed by the advanced metrics.

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Verlander has a full no trade clause and  Angelos would never approve that amount of payroll for 1 pitcher who's 34 years old.

Even if they swapped bad contracts, there's zero chance Angelos would agree to terms that the Tigers found acceptable.  He'd want them to pay too much and the deal would fall through. 

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4 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

Verlander would have been the best SP on the Os last year, by far.

2016: 16-9, 3.04 ERA, 227 IP, 254 Ks, 1.001 WHIP  (2nd in CY Young Vote)

He'd also have been (arguably) the best SP on the team this year.

2017: 6-7, 4.29 ERA, 130 IP, 126 Ks.

I know he's owed a ton of money, but SP help is going to be BY FAR our biggest need going forward. [B{If the Os can get the Tigers to eat some of the contract is this really that crazy of an idea?[/B]Are the Os going to have a SP target in the offseason who will put up better numbers? I'm genuinely asking, because I don't know how much Verlander has regressed by the advanced metrics.

Trouble is, if we put in a waiver claim, the Tigers could just let him go and we'd be on the hook for the whole $28 mm/yr the next two years.

It's not impossible that he'd be worth it -- per fangraphs, the last 4 years he's been worth $22.3, $22.8, $45.1 and (projected) $25.3 mm.    But 35-36 is a dangerous age to assume a pitcher will continue to produce at the levels of the recent past.    

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14 hours ago, Dr. Unk said:

We swept the Royals (the innocuous team of my childhood, who I now despise, because of their pompous, a-hole players, so I'm good.

I don't know about them. Maybe they're that way because they won a World Series.

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