The O's plan to get into the playoffs: "Fingers crossed, you guys!"

[joelala]

9 minutes ago, interloper said:

The larger point I'm trying to make with this thread is that the Orioles have lacked a plan all season.

1000000000% this.  We are one of the least organized franchises in all of pro sports right now.

[joelala]

And I really don't think that's hyperbole, even though it sounds like it.

[mdbdotcom]

Just now, interloper said:

Hey, fair enough. I know we aren't privy to the inner workings at the Warehouse. As fans, we'll never know the details of what's going on. I'm just here on a message board writing some stuff. 

As a fan, I think there was a chance to move more decisively in one direction or the other. As usual, they decided to ride the fence. From my perspective, that rarely works, and hasn't worked the last few years. But I guess we'll see. 

This is where I disagree with you. In previous years they have given up young  pitching prospects for guys who didn't do much for us. This year we didn't. That's progress.

The biggest, most obvious flaw this year was that no one realized Parker Bridwell could pitch. Our position in the standings might look very different if he'd been added to our rotation instead of the Angels.

[joelala]

7 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

Looks like the larger point is that the O's didn't have a plan that you agreed with.

What was there plan? I don't know. You don't either. 

The end.

Also true.  I'm trying to remind myself to reserve judgement.  But its so hard!

[mdbdotcom]

Just now, joelala said:

Also true.  I'm trying to remind myself to reserve judgement.  But its so hard!

Feel free to consider your judgments hunches until they are either proved or disproved. Hey, it's the internet. Do what you feel, man.

[interloper]

5 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

This is where I disagree with you. In previous years they have given up young  pitching prospects for guys who didn't do much for us. This year we didn't. That's progress.

The biggest, most obvious flaw this year was that no one realized Parker Bridwell could pitch. Our position in the standings might look very different if he'd been added to our rotation instead of the Angels.

I don't know how you can say these two things in the same breath. They gave away Bridwell for cash. Surely there was another way to handle that. And we gave up a relatively promising young pitcher for Hellickson. 

The plan looks the same as it always has: try to stay above .500. I think Dan doesn't have as many mid-tier pitching prospects to give up this year, and so teams like the White Sox are asking for our more top tier guys. My position is, you've already given up these prospects to maintain this middling level of "goodness", you might as well just go all in now that you find yourself in a position to actually make the playoffs. Make those prospect sacrifices mean something, man!

[joelala]

Just now, mdbdotcom said:

Feel free to consider your judgments hunches until they are either proved or disproved. Hey, it's the internet. Do what you feel, man.

I feel like putting on my Parker Bridwell custom Orioles jersey.

[interloper]

https://www.camdenchat.com/2017/9/1/16240290/orioles-trade-rumors-miguel-gonzalez-rangers-white-sox?utm_campaign=camdenchat&utm_content=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

[mdbdotcom]

7 minutes ago, interloper said:

I don't know how you can say these two things in the same breath. They gave away Bridwell for cash. Surely there was another way to handle that. And we gave up a relatively promising young pitcher for Hellickson. 

The plan looks the same as it always has: try to stay above .500. I think Dan doesn't have as many mid-tier pitching prospects to give up this year, and so teams like the White Sox are asking for our more top tier guys. My position is, you've already given up these prospects to maintain this middling level of "goodness", you might as well just go all in now that you find yourself in a position to actually make the playoffs. Make those prospect sacrifices mean something, man!

Garrett Cleavinger qualifies as young and promising? We got Hellickson for the slot money, pure and simple.

We did give up a 19-year old with promise for Beckham, but since Beckham could be our starting shortstop for three years,  I don't put that deal in the same league as trading Davies (who was on the cusp of breaking into the big leagues) for Parra.

[El Gordo]

42 minutes ago, interloper said:

You don't think he's a #3 on this Orioles team? I'm saying all this from the perspective of how he'd fit on this particular Orioles team. The most important thing he does is bump one of Tillman and Ubaldo and give the team an actual chance to win on that day.

If we are thinking QS which is what we need to win, Gonzo would be second to Bundy with 13. So no he's not a # 3 he's a #2.

[wildcard]

Gonzo would have upgraded the rotation.   And that is the O's biggest weakness.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

The plan appears to be "welp, hope we continue to out hit our pitching!" And if you've seen the Orioles in September, you know that won't be the case. August is their hot month, and with the cool weather comes the cool bats.

First of all, I agree with a lot of what you say in your post, so don't take what I'm about to say as meaning I disagree with your overall point.

That said, as someone who copiously records the Orioles' monthly performance, I don't think it's true that September is typically a cold month for our offense.   During Buck's tenure (September/Oct. vs. full year)

2010: 4.20 vs. 3.78

2011: 5.04 vs. 4.37

2012: 5.10 vs. 4.40

2013: 4.00 vs. 4.60

2014: 4.37 vs. 4.35

2015: 4.71 vs. 4.40

2016: 4.14 vs. 4.59

So, in 5 of Buck's 7 seasons, we've exceeded the season average in September/October.

Now, with that said, August 2017 was one of the best offensive months this team has ever had (6.03 runs/game), and it's extremely unlikely that the O's will replicate that or come anywhere close in September/October.   For this team to win enough games to make the playoffs, the pitching will need to be better than it's been.

As a reminder, however, last year the pitching was stellar in September/October after being lousy all year.     The team gave up 3.38 runs/game over that period, compared to 4.41 runs/game for the year as a whole.     What big August move did we make to improve the pitching last year?    Nothing, it just happened.

Bottom line: we've had lousy pitching all year, made no move in August to improve it, and we just have to hope that the pitchers we have do better this month than they've done year-to-date, as they did last year.      Do I expect that to happen?    No, not really.    But at least Buck will have extra arms at his disposal and will be able to have a quicker hook when a starter begins to head south.   He has usually been able to use that to his advantage, which is one of the reasons his Oriole teams have fared well in September.    Let's cross our fingers, as you said.   

 

 

 

[eddie83]

16 minutes ago, joelala said:

1000000000% this.  We are one of the least organized franchises in all of pro sports right now.

Their plan all along was to try to contend in 2018. They were willing to deal Britton but not Manny. A deal was in place for Britton but the medicals did not work out. As I said at the time if the Beckham deal was a post year November deal people would have viewed it different. Instead we were buying when we should have been selling. 

The Hellickson deal was basically to help the Orioles get through the 2017 season. It was just moving parts. 

Now many think the Orioles should have dealt Manny and many others and rebuild it all. They aren't doing that. 

I thought Dan would add an arm yesterday and I am suprised. 

[joelala]

2 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Their plan all along was to try to contend in 2018. They were willing to deal Britton but not Manny. A deal was in place for Britton but the medicals did not work out. As I said at the time if the Beckham deal was a post year November deal people would have viewed it different. Instead we were buying when we should have been selling. 

The Hellickson deal was basically to help the Orioles get through the 2017 season. It was just moving parts. 

Now many think the Orioles should have dealt Manny and many others and rebuild it all. They aren't doing that. 

I thought Dan would add an arm yesterday and I am suprised. 

I still don't think any of this refutes my claim though.  We're a mess!

[eddie83]

5 minutes ago, joelala said:

I still don't think any of this refutes my claim though.  We're a mess!

And you are entitled to your opinion. I just don't agree that they have no plan. We can discuss all day long whether it will work or not.