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.500+ record, or no. 13 overall draft pick?

Frobby

By Frobby
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Three Run Homer Hangout Veteran Council

Three Run Homer

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If they get to .500 because they play Sisco and Hays and Santander and they all tear the cover off the ball, I'm fine with moving down in the draft.

If they get to .500 because they bench the kids and Mark Trumbo and Chris Davis hit a few home runs to salvage their season statistics, then I will not be particularly happy about it.

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SteveA Hangout Grand Counsel

SteveA

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2 hours ago, Tx Oriole said:

It doesn't matter. Whoever does the drafting for the O's will foul it up. 

Really, seems like we've drafted pretty well in the past bunch of years.   Machado, Mancini, Schoop, Bundy, Gausman, Hays, Mullins, Davies, Hader, Bridwell, Sisco, Mountcastle, Stewart, Akin, Harvey... all draftees who have either succeeded at the big league level or seem to show a lot of potential to.   Obviously too early to tell but it doesn't seem like we have been drafting poorly the last 7 years or so.

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Beef Supreme Hangout Veteran Council

Beef Supreme

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47 minutes ago, Frobby said:

FWIW, 13th picks have totaled 322 rWAR, 18th picks have totaled 161.    So, exactly double.     That result is a bit fluky, though.   The 13th pick has done better than the 12th, while the 18th pick has done worse than the 19th.   In fact, the 19th has done better than either the 12th or 13th, too.    

Surprised. What years do these cover? Have your source material available?

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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2 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

Surprised. What years do these cover? Have your source material available?

All years are covered.   My source is BB-ref, which has a great draft database you could play with all day.

13th pick: https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?overall_pick=13&draft_type=junreg&query_type=overall_pick&from_type_jc=0&from_type_hs=0&from_type_4y=0&from_type_unk=0

18th pick: https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?overall_pick=18&draft_type=junreg&query_type=overall_pick&from_type_jc=0&from_type_hs=0&from_type_4y=0&from_type_unk=0

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Tx Oriole Hangout Grand Counsel

Tx Oriole

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50 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Really, seems like we've drafted pretty well in the past bunch of years.   Machado, Mancini, Schoop, Bundy, Gausman, Hays, Mullins, Davies, Hader, Bridwell, Sisco, Mountcastle, Stewart, Akin, Harvey... all draftees who have either succeeded at the big league level or seem to show a lot of potential to.   Obviously too early to tell but it doesn't seem like we have been drafting poorly the last 7 years or so.

I was thinking about pitching in particular. Maybe I am overreacting about the draft. Drafting a pitcher that could become a TOR would be nice. Hope Harvey can become one. Want the pitching to improve. 

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Beef Supreme Hangout Veteran Council

Beef Supreme

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50 minutes ago, Frobby said:

All years are covered.   My source is BB-ref, which has a great draft database you could play with all day.

13th pick: https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?overall_pick=13&draft_type=junreg&query_type=overall_pick&from_type_jc=0&from_type_hs=0&from_type_4y=0&from_type_unk=0

18th pick: https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?overall_pick=18&draft_type=junreg&query_type=overall_pick&from_type_jc=0&from_type_hs=0&from_type_4y=0&from_type_unk=0

Wow. Very nice. I need to find my source material that claimed that there was not much drop off by pick after the #1 overall. Will get back to you when/if i figure out what I had read.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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30 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

Wow. Very nice. I need to find my source material that claimed that there was not much drop off by pick after the #1 overall. Will get back to you when/if i figure out what I had read.

As I mentioned, 13 vs. 18 is a very fluky comparison.   

17: 309

18: 161

19: 369

20: 393

The fact that 18 has done so poorly is just random chance.   

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Ruzious Hangout Grand Counsel

Ruzious

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1 hour ago, SteveA said:

Really, seems like we've drafted pretty well in the past bunch of years.   Machado, Mancini, Schoop, Bundy, Gausman, Hays, Mullins, Davies, Hader, Bridwell, Sisco, Mountcastle, Stewart, Akin, Harvey... all draftees who have either succeeded at the big league level or seem to show a lot of potential to.   Obviously too early to tell but it doesn't seem like we have been drafting poorly the last 7 years or so.

And the O's 2016 6th round pick was traded for Beckham!    

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bobmc Hangout Grand Counsel

bobmc

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6 hours ago, Frobby said:

As of today, the O's are tied for the 13th-worst record in baseball.   If they finish at .500+, they could end up passing 5 other teams in the standings and getting the 18th pick rather than the 13th.     Is it worth the 5 draft slots to you for us to finish at .500+ for the sixth year in a row?

Poll coming?  For me no, but I won't wish them to lose.  In fact, third place seems so much better than last.  So I guess yes then....

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TonySoprano Hangout Grand Counsel

TonySoprano

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In 2010, the Nats picked Bryce Harper 1st overall, and the O's drafted Manny with the 3rd pick.  The 13th pick that year was Chris Sale, while with the 34th and 38th picks, the Blue Jays drafted Aaron Sanchez and a guy by the name of Noah Syndergaard.  In 2011, the O's nabbed Dylan Bundy 4th overall.  The Mets used the 13th pick for OFer Brandon Nimmo while Oakland used the 18th pick for Sonny Gray.  Kevin Gausman was the 4th overall pick in 2012, followed by Courtney Hawkins (CWS) 13th and the Dodgers grabbed Corey Seager with the #18 slot.

The moral of the story, in hindsight, teams make numerous mistakes in evaluations every year.  In 2011-12, the 18th picked proved to be more valuable than the 13th.  As a matter of principle therefore, no I will not be happy going sub .500 as the 5 slots ahead in the draft are not a slam dunk deal breaker.  

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