.500+ record, or no. 13 overall draft pick?

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, osfan83 said:

I disagree....to me a fluke would be if that 2012 team won 93 game, then followed it up with a couple of sub .500 seasons. This team has been a wild card caliber team or better for the past 5 years. Yes, even the 2017 team could have made the WC. And we have the core in place for at least a WC caliber team in 2018.

If the 2007 team won 93 games, that would have been a fluke. 

The 2013 Red Sox are an interesting case.

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, osfan83 said:

I disagree....to me a fluke would be if that 2012 team won 93 game, then followed it up with a couple of sub .500 seasons. This team has been a wild card caliber team or better for the past 5 years. Yes, even the 2017 team could have made the WC. And we have the core in place for at least a WC caliber team in 2018.

If the 2007 team won 93 games, that would have been a fluke. 

Record setting performance in one run games.  Highest WPA for a bullpen ever.  Finished 11 games over their Pythagorean.

I'm sticking with 2012 being a fluke season.

[24fps]

22 minutes ago, osfan83 said:

How many consecutive years of playoff baseball will it take for the Astros to recoup the lost revenue dollars from the 100 loss seasons?  

Looked at one way, the answer is never because the opportunity is already lost.  The difference between the Astros' 2005 WS team and the 2013 111-loss team is roughly 1.2 million fans.  That's a huge amount of lost revenue any way you look at it, so your underlying point is a good one.  

http://www.baseball-almanac.com/teams/housattn.shtml

It is worth noting that the Astros didn't "shrug their shoulders for several years" when setting out to turn things around.  They instituted a comprehensive and well though out, albeit radical plan.  They opened themselves up to criticism, but there was nothing at all cavalier about their approach which was consistent with the scale of the business problem they faced.

[thezeroes]

1 hour ago, 24fps said:

It is worth noting that the Astros didn't "shrug their shoulders for several years" when setting out to turn things around.  They instituted a comprehensive and well though out, albeit radical plan.  They opened themselves up to criticism, but there was nothing at all cavalier about their approach which was consistent with the scale of the business problem they faced.

THe Astros moved to the American League in 2013 with a New Ownership Team.  Reconstruction was needed to become an American League Team hence selling off assets.  They brought in a Management team that consisted of former Cleveland Indians director of baseball operations David Stearns as the team's new assistant general manager. They would also go on to hire former St. Louis Cardinals front office executive Jeff Luhnow as their general manager.

[atomic]

I don't want the team to lose but I don't see point of starting Bundy another game.  Hays and Cisco should start every game.  Well  Cisco gets a ga,e off.  It makes no sense to bring the kids up and not play them. 

[tntoriole]

This team is not going to sniff  .500, so I think that we have no need to fear the loss of anything.  They have to go 8-2 to even get to .500. 

[foxfield]

17 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

What I am saying is you can't look at a team like the 2011 team and go "Yea, that team is close.".

These days if you can play around .500 you might end up "close" to the second wildcard.  I don't see the point in playing for .500.

I think you can and we did.  The Orioles in 2011 played their first full season under Buck and DD.  There were many signs during this season to remind the Orioles that they were not a contender for the AL East title, but Buck and Co. managed to come out of the gate 4-0 to start for the first time since 1997, their last winning season.

Along the way Buck spoke in terms of not backing down anymore, of taking back OPACY from the Yankees and the Redsox and an attitude of we are not going to lay down anymore began to emerge.Then in September the Orioles had their first winning month and played a huge part in derailing the Redsox from the playoffs.

The Orioles were nearly 30 games out of it, but in that final month they played like a contender and when they eliminated the Redsox, they celebrated on the field like they had won the WS.  I promise you that at that moment, which I have referred to here on this board many times...the Orioles were finally on the way back and in that moment, I believed that "Yea, that team is close!!!"  And I promise you that I was not alone.

But to your point, close then meant close to being competitive...winning...competing for the playoffs....meaningful games in September.  We are still that and while there are some here who would disagree, the majority of the board here seems to at least see that the Orioles are competitive, are close, and have played meaningful games in September.

The difference is this:  Close now means doing something in the postseason.  Being close doesn't mean missing out or losing in the play in game.  I still think we are closer than some think, but there is no way around this...If we are going to have to endure the contracts of Davis and Trumbo and continue to trot out mediocre pitching while hoping that our own rise up to the level of elite, it is going to require a miracle to get over the hump.

This team has shown this year that on a roll it looks as good as any in baseball.  Unfortunately it has shown that it is not deep enough to perform at that level consistently and at times has looked as bad as any team in baseball.  The adage that things are never as good or as bad as they seem holds.  The Orioles are neither the best nor the worst team in baseball.  They have top shelf talent.  But they are incomplete and cannot be successful without 2 players exceeding nearly impossible expectations already.  And they cannot expect to exceed by filling the back end of a pitching rotation and hoping that a TOR or two develop.  Can it happen...of course.  But that is planning for a miracle.

 

Now, I join you in saying playing for the 2nd WC is not the bar Im looking for and we are certainly still close to that for 2018...warts and all.  We have a ways to go to return to competing for the AL East and that is the bar I would prefer to get over.  But those are not the same benchmarks and we are above the below and below the upper on the two.

[eddie83]

4 hours ago, foxfield said:

I think you can and we did.  The Orioles in 2011 played their first full season under Buck and DD.  There were many signs during this season to remind the Orioles that they were not a contender for the AL East title, but Buck and Co. managed to come out of the gate 4-0 to start for the first time since 1997, their last winning season.

Along the way Buck spoke in terms of not backing down anymore, of taking back OPACY from the Yankees and the Redsox and an attitude of we are not going to lay down anymore began to emerge.Then in September the Orioles had their first winning month and played a huge part in derailing the Redsox from the playoffs.

The Orioles were nearly 30 games out of it, but in that final month they played like a contender and when they eliminated the Redsox, they celebrated on the field like they had won the WS.  I promise you that at that moment, which I have referred to here on this board many times...the Orioles were finally on the way back and in that moment, I believed that "Yea, that team is close!!!"  And I promise you that I was not alone.

But to your point, close then meant close to being competitive...winning...competing for the playoffs....meaningful games in September.  We are still that and while there are some here who would disagree, the majority of the board here seems to at least see that the Orioles are competitive, are close, and have played meaningful games in September.

The difference is this:  Close now means doing something in the postseason.  Being close doesn't mean missing out or losing in the play in game.  I still think we are closer than some think, but there is no way around this...If we are going to have to endure the contracts of Davis and Trumbo and continue to trot out mediocre pitching while hoping that our own rise up to the level of elite, it is going to require a miracle to get over the hump.

This team has shown this year that on a roll it looks as good as any in baseball.  Unfortunately it has shown that it is not deep enough to perform at that level consistently and at times has looked as bad as any team in baseball.  The adage that things are never as good or as bad as they seem holds.  The Orioles are neither the best nor the worst team in baseball.  They have top shelf talent.  But they are incomplete and cannot be successful without 2 players exceeding nearly impossible expectations already.  And they cannot expect to exceed by filling the back end of a pitching rotation and hoping that a TOR or two develop.  Can it happen...of course.  But that is planning for a miracle.

 

Now, I join you in saying playing for the 2nd WC is not the bar Im looking for and we are certainly still close to that for 2018...warts and all.  We have a ways to go to return to competing for the AL East and that is the bar I would prefer to get over.  But those are not the same benchmarks and we are above the below and below the upper on the two.

DD took over after 2011. 

[foxfield]

3 hours ago, eddie83 said:

DD took over after 2011. 

Correct, Buck started at the end of 10 his first full year was 11 and the first year of DD and Buck together was 12.  Everything else in the post remains the same.  Thanks for the correction.

[eddie83]

20 minutes ago, foxfield said:

Correct, Buck started at the end of 10 his first full year was 11 and the first year of DD and Buck together was 12.  Everything else in the post remains the same.  Thanks for the correction.

Club hit well that September. About 5 runs per game. Starting pitching was bad 6.09 ERA. Buck used a ton of relievers that month. Bullpen ERA was 3.82.  

That was the start and also the start of the pen being important. Picked up Strop that month and JJ was getting better.  

[Il BuonO]

Well, I won't be devastated if they lose out.

[Frobby]

With last night's loss, the O's are now tied with Toronto for last place in the AL East.    If they finish behind Toronto, they'd probably draft 12th.   It's also possible that the Marlins may pass the Orioles -- they're tied in the loss column.    If that happened we'd draft 11th.   There are three other teams that conceivably could pass us -- Pittsburgh, Oakland and Atlanta.   So, in theory, we still could end up drafting as high as 8th.    On the other hand, we could still finish ahead of Toronto, Texas, Tampa, Seattle,  KC, and LAA and draft 18th.   Hard to believe it could vary that much with 4 games left to play.

[1968_bills_fan]

What is missing from this discussion is that both the Yankees and the Red Sox are better than us,  have young players and have a better farm system (with better and more players coming up in the near future).   We play in the same damn division as them and we have to become better than one of them and competitve with the other to get into the post season.  The measuring stick is not how do we squeek into the wildcard, but how we get a winning record against those two.

We play more games against stronger teams than other teams. We play 20 games against NYY and BRS who are among the top 4 teams in the AL and (unfortunately) 4 games against the Nat's who win more than the NYY.  So we start off with a disadvantage for the wild card compared to teams in other AL division.   The road to the post season goes thu NY and Boston.

Right now, we have one and a half starting pitchers and we need 5.  Maybe we might get one 4/5 guy from our farm system and one 4/5 guy from the FA market or a trade.  We lack ~2 guys from the 1-2-3 slot.  

 

We either wait for the future draft picks and luck, or we trade our only valid trading chip.  Goodbye Manny, nice to have known you. 

 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, 1968_bills_fan said:

What is missing from this discussion is that both the Yankees and the Red Sox are better than us,  have young players and have a better farm system (with better and more players coming up in the near future).   We play in the same damn division as them and we have to become better than one of them and competitve with the other to get into the post season.  The measuring stick is not how do we squeek into the wildcard, but how we get a winning record against those two.

The Red Sox farm system is not particularly strong right now.    Their team is good enough and young enough where they have some time to build it back up, but right now I wouldn't say their system is stronger than ours.    

As to getting a winning record against them, we beat the Sox 10-9 head to head this year.

I'm not debating your general point that both teams are well positioned and will be tough to beat for the next several years.  

[sportsfan8703]

Well we're running out our best SP's to "tank", but the funny thing is that a month ago they were going to "lead" us so the playoffs. I say trot out Miley, Hellickson and Ubaldo. Let's close this season out with a bang.