Camden Depot: Historically Bad? Or Pretty Good?

[weams]

http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/02/2018-orioles-historically-bad-or-pretty.html?m=1

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Buck seems to get about three wins more than the average model projection and our work has been roughly validated by slightly different methods elsewhere.

With the beginning of February upon us and a languid free agency process that has impacted nearly all teams, the Orioles find themselves under the FanGraphs projection as a 75 win team.  Personally, I do not use FanGraphs' projections as I think their defensive considerations are too conservative at times and too willing to extrapolate on small MLB sample sizes.  I also think whoever is in charge of divvying up playing time does not consider how willing certain teams are at replacing players or limiting their time.  The Orioles for instance have for the most part been very willing to reduce playing time of established players when merited.  It may not feel like that after you see Ubaldo Jimenez, JJ Hardy, Chris Davis, and Mark Trumbo struggle for an eternity, but in general, yes, they do move players around a bit more than a typical team when performance dips.  Anyway, when it all gets boiled down though the systems are pretty similar in how accurate they are.

 

 

 

[tntoriole]

Our history has included tremendously awful teams....so i would say they would really to work at it to be “historically”  bad.   But last place finish and not even close?   Sure...that is the most likely outcome for 2018, imho. 

[Frobby]

9 hours ago, tntoriole said:

Our history has included tremendously awful teams....so i would say they would really to work at it to be “historically”  bad.   But last place finish and not even close?   Sure...that is the most likely outcome for 2018, imho. 

I’ll tell you what I think is “most likely” when I see the final OD roster.     With the current pitching staff, I don’t see how anyone could disagree with you.   

[atomic]

The 1988 team started out 0-21.  I find it hard to believe this team will be as bad as the 1988 team.  

[weams]

8 minutes ago, cimota said:

The 1988 team started out 0-21.  I find it hard to believe this team will be as bad as the 1988 team.  

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They went 54-107 with a minus-239 run differential. And, of course, they started the season 0-21. Yes, 0-21. So I suppose the good news it that they went 54-86 after that, which is ... not as terrible?

Can you imagine going 0-21 to start the year? The O's were 15.5 games back in the AL East by the end of April and finished the year 34.5 games back in the division. My goodness they were bad. So very, very bad.

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https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/franchise-bests-worsts-baltimore-orioles/