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Fangraphs: When Super Teams Fail


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https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/when-super-teams-fail/

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Then management added free-agent Max Scherzer. The Nationals had also traded for Trea Turner and Joe Ross. I remember this preseason pretty well. The Nationals looked like one of the best teams imaginable. The NL East was a foregone conclusion. Bryce Harper seemed poised to win a World Series. What could possibly happen?

The bullpen was hurt by the departure of Tyler Clippard. Roark wasn’t very effective, and Stephen Strasburg spent some time on the disabled list. That doesn’t seem to really capture the story, though. In this year, Harper had one of the best seasons of all-time. It was his breakout, his direct threat to Mike Trout‘s supremacy. Harper seemed to become a surefire Hall-of-Famer before our very eyes. And yet Harper’s efforts were essentially wasted. In 2014, Ian Desmond, Jayson Werth, Anthony Rendon, and Denard Span combined for 20 WAR. In 2015, they combined for 4.

 
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...compared to 2007, the Yankees’ rotation was better. And the bullpen was much better, as well. If you can believe it, the bullpen improved by five full WAR. But the position players lost 16 WAR between seasons, and I can show you where. In 2007, Alex Rodriguez, Jorge Posada, and Robinson Cano combined for 20 WAR. In 2008, those three players combined for 6. Rodriguez was still great, but less so. Meanwhile, Cano’s performance dropped to replacement-level, and Posada’s did as well, mostly thanks to injury. Hideki Matsui also had problems with his knee that hurt his performance, and the Yankees just couldn’t recover from all this. Their position players dropped from ranking second in baseball in WAR to 15th. That was just too great a drop, as the Rays also came to blossom, after years of ramping up. The Yankees wound up in third place in the East.

 

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