Mid-Term Grades for OH Top 30

[bigbird]

Isn't Butler in the top 30?????

[RLB29]

With the minor league season at the halfway point, here are my mid-term grades for the OH top 30. My grades take into account how highly ranked they were, their age for their level, and their performance.

Overall, you have to be very pleased with the pitching and pretty disappointed with the hitting.

Does "Park Effect" have much to do with the performance of some of these players?

[Frobby]

Isn't Butler in the top 30?????

He wasn't on the team when the top 30 was done. I'd be pretty surprised if he's not on next year's list.

[napbow]

I agree with the ratings pretty much.

I figure Fredy Deza, Luis Hernandez, Scott Moore, Jim Hoey, Miguel Abreu, and Joe Mahoney come off the list because of poor stats.

Olson will graduate. Liz might graduate. Reimold has a chance too.

The list will be even stronger at the end of the year.

The Top 10 will probably be:

1) Matt Wieters

2) Brian Matusz

3) Chris Tillman

4) Jake Arrieta

5) Nolan Reimold

6) Chorye Spoone

7) David Hernandez

8) Brad Bergesen

9) Bill Rowell

10) Tyler Henson or Zach Britton

I really see Snyder falling out of the Top 10, mainly because of the amount of pitching we have.

I really like this list but I would put Xavier Avery in there at 10 since he has so much potential.

11. Erbe

12. Britton

13. Henson

[Tony-OH]

Isn't Butler in the top 30?????

I can see all of the guys acquired in the Seattle and Houston trades being on the end of the season list.

Obviously Tillman will be the highest...

[Ruzious]

We used to really struggle to pick out legit prospects after... around 12 or so, maybe 15? Now, we have guys fighting for the number 30 spot that have legit shots - guys like Wally Crancer. James Johnson at 29 - how good is that? We've never had quality and depth like this.

[glorydays]

I can see all of the guys acquired in the Seattle and Houston trades being on the end of the season list.

Obviously Tillman will be the highest...

I'm worried about Costanzo not being on the list and didn't eve notice that Tillman and Butler weren't on the list either!

[BoysofArbutus]

We used to really struggle to pick out legit prospects after... around 12 or so, maybe 15? Now, we have guys fighting for the number 30 spot that have legit shots - guys like Wally Crancer. James Johnson at 29 - how good is that? We've never had quality and depth like this.

Now we need to make the depth work for us. That means in 2009 we add Weiters and Reimold to the starting lineup and deal some of our minor league pitching surplus for something to put us over the top in 2010

[orioole28]

Now we need to make the depth work for us. That means in 2009 we add Weiters and Reimold to the starting lineup and deal some of our minor league pitching surplus for something to put us over the top in 2010

What are your trade suggestion??

[Elon Os Fan]

Frobby,

Can I suggust your next piece of art to be an updated top 30 list.

Great work!

[Frobby]

Frobby,

Can I suggust your next piece of art to be an updated top 30 list.

Great work!

I could do one, but it simply wouldn't be as good as the list that Tony and his staff compile, because I don't talk to scouts and I can't pick up some of the subtleties that underlie the statistics. Tony and his staff have rarely been wrong when they've donwgraded a player from what his statistics might suggest based on their own observations and discussions with the Orioles brass and other scouts. They've also picked out a few guys who were likely to make good progress despite uninspriring early numbers. They might occasionally swing and miss with a guy like Kieron Pope or Pedro Florimon, but they've got a lot better idea than I do of who has a real chance to become a big league player.

Now if Tony wants to do a mid-season list, like he used to, then I'd be all for it.

[LookinUp]

I could do one, but it simply wouldn't be as good as the list that Tony and his staff compile, because I don't talk to scouts and I can't pick up some of the subtleties that underlie the statistics. Tony and his staff have rarely been wrong when they've donwgraded a player from what his statistics might suggest based on their own observations and discussions with the Orioles brass and other scouts. They've also picked out a few guys who were likely to make good progress despite uninspriring early numbers. They might occasionally swing and miss with a guy like Kieron Pope or Pedro Florimon, but they've got a lot better idea than I do of who has a real chance to become a big league player.

Now if Tony wants to do a mid-season list, like he used to, then I'd be all for it.

Hopefully they're wrong on Reimold.

[BoysofArbutus]

What are your trade suggestion??

Considering it's June 2008, it's a little difficult to forecast a trade in July 2009 or two offseasons from now. The point is the most successful teams have deep farm systems and wisely choose who to keep and who to trade depending on where their strengths are. We have incredibly deep pitching in the system and the addition of Matusz makes it ever deeper.

IMO, Matusz, Tillman and Arrieta will all be in the rotation come 2010 and the rest are expendable. If we can deal any combo of Hernandez, Erbe, Bergesen, Berken, Noel, and on down the line for some pop in the order, I'm for it.

[hoosiers]

IMO, Matusz, Tillman and Arrieta will all be in the rotation come 2010 and the rest are expendable. If we can deal any combo of Hernandez, Erbe, Bergesen, Berken, Noel, and on down the line for some pop in the order, I'm for it.

This is an incredibly simplistic - and, IMO, unrealistic - way of looking at things. Our best pitching prospects are Matu, Tillman and Arrieta, but that group has only half a season above High A ball. That group is a long way from major league success, IMO.

As we've seen by the emergence of JJohnson, some success from John Maine as well as the injuries to a top prospect like Adam Loewen, it would not be wise to keep only the very best pitching prospects and look to deal the rest.

Besides, teams looking to deal hitting prospects for our pitchers are going to start with the top 3.

[PlumOriole]

If Erbe keeps this up in June he won't be a B grade much longer.