Mid-Term Grades for OH Top 30

[Lt Melmo]

Of the draft class, my opinion is that Matusz should rank #2 or #3; Hoes should be in the low teens; Miclat and Zagone should be in the 20-25 range; and Avery and Bundy should be in the 25-30 range (obviously with potential to move up once they show more in the minors). Hudson wouldn't make my top 30.

I'd say #3 at best... there's just no way you can rank him higher than Tillman right now. Tillman is a top 15, maybe top 10 prospect, and I don't think Matusz is going to place in BA's top 30.

[NCRaven]

Bergesen is never going to be a golden boy type player, either on the Hangout or amongst scouts. He's a guy that pitches to contact and generally keeps the ball on the ground, so he's not going to have flashy numbers except in wins and era which everyone here knows are totally valueless stats.

Having said that, I think he projects as a back of the rotation starter, but could surprise by being a very durable, innings eater, that gives his team a chance to win more often than not. He doesn't seem to be the type of pitcher that gives up huge innings. He keeps guys off base - his 1.15 WHIP was second in the EL (the leader was 1.14) and he doesn't give up a lot of HR's. He gets lots of ground balls, so he should also get a decent number of double plays behind him. In general, I think he's going to be a serviceable starter, though certainly not an All-Star (okay, probably not an AS, after all, you never know).

On Matusz, he's got a three year major college track record. I think that's at least as valuable as half a season in Rookie ball for making judgements on his potential, which is what prospect lists are all about anyway. I have no doubts that Wieters is our #1, I think he ranks ahead of Price as the overall #1, but I would not have any problem with someone putting Matusz at #2. You could certainly argue for Tillman, but I don't see anyone else even close.

[Stotle]

I'd say #3 at best... there's just no way you can rank him higher than Tillman right now. Tillman is a top 15, maybe top 10 prospect, and I don't think Matusz is going to place in BA's top 30.

I think you're rating Tillman higher than BA will and Matusz a little lower.

[Lucky Jim]

I think you're rating Tillman higher than BA will and Matusz a little lower.

I don't think so. (Though I certainly could be wrong.) They've hyped Tillman all season long - even including him in their prospect summaries when not focusing on him. Their last comment:

Double-A Bowie RHP Chris Tillman (Orioles), still just 20, is directing the Baysox to the Eastern League playoffs and struck out eight against Trenton (Yankees) over six scoreless innings on Tuesday. It was his third consecutive start of six innings and no runs. In his past 30 innings, he has 44 strikeouts and only seven walks . . .

Just based on their focus on him throughout the year, I think Tillman ends up top-15. Though he may have issues with command in the zone, his age and numbers really make up for it.

Not sure what they'll say about Matusz. My guess is 20-30 range.

[Stotle]

I don't think so. (Though I certainly could be wrong.) They've hyped Tillman all season long - even including him in their prospect summaries when not focusing on him. Their last comment:

Just based on their focus on him throughout the year, I think Tillman ends up top-15. Though he may have issues with command in the zone, his age and numbers really make up for it.

Not sure what they'll say about Matusz. My guess is 20-30 range.

I think top 15 is possible, but top ten? I'm looking at (not in order):

Heyward

Price

Wieters

Rasmus

Maybin

LaPorta

Porcello

Feliz

Snider

Wood (maybe)

Posey (maybe)

McCutchen (maybe)

Alvarez (maybe)

Hosmer (maybe)

Beckham (maybe)

Fowler (maybe)

Alderson (maybe)

Bumgarner (maybe)

All right in that area -- depends a little on the Fall/Winter leagues. BA had Matusz as their top arm in this past draft, so I'd assume he'll get a good look -- especially if he performs well in the AFL. He's no Price (who was #10 before throwing a pro inning) but BA (or at least Jim Callis) has repeatedly said he was the best arm in the draft.

I don't think the original prediction was way off, but I do feel Tillman was slightly overrated (by making him a potential top 10, and Matusz was highly underrated (dropping him out of the top 30).

If I had to guess, Tillman in the 11-15 range and Matusz in the 22-27 range.

[Mackus]

I also think Tillman will be a top-20 prospect.

Matusz might sneak into the top-30 or so, but not playing hurts his chances. He was pretty much a consensus top-5 pick in the MLB draft, although you could argue that after Alvarez, there was really a lot of pretty equal talent between the next 6-8 guys. So he's almost certainly behind almost all of the upper 1st rounders who had good debuts. How he does in the AFL will be important.

I think somewhere in the 30s is probably Matusz' best bet.

[Lt Melmo]

Last BA chat:

John Manuel: ...Tillman's an elite prospect, one of the top 10 in the game more than likely, at least top 10 pitchers . . . Nothing to not like about Tillman.

Week before that:

Ben Badler: ...He is a great prospect, one of the best pitching prospects in the minors...

Aug. 8:

Ben Badler: ...I do think he's one of the best pitching prospects in baseball...

Aug. 8 Hot Sheet:

Tillman is about as good of a pitching prospect as you will find in the minors.

About Matusz, I might be rating him a bit low. I remember those midseason rankings (not BA) sticking him around 85, which is pessimistic, but not altogether crazy, given his ceiling. Maybe he's a top 30 prospect. Most likely not a top 20. Tillman is absolutely a top 20.

A good deal depends on how he does in winter ball, too, so maybe this isn't the best time to discuss it.

[Stotle]

Last BA chat:

Week before that:

Aug. 8:

Aug. 8 Hot Sheet:

About Matusz, I might be rating him a bit low. I remember those midseason rankings (not BA) sticking him around 85, which is pessimistic, but not altogether crazy, given his ceiling. Maybe he's a top 30 prospect. Most likely not a top 20. Tillman is absolutely a top 20.

A good deal depends on how he does in winter ball, too, so maybe this isn't the best time to discuss it.

Yeah, I think everyone and their mother has him as "one of the best pitching prospects in baseball". I'm just no sure he's quite at the top 10 level. I said 11-15 if I had to pick, so it isn't like I'm far off from where you are.

I have a hard time believing there are 80 MiL prospects better than Matusz...

[wickedwitch]

I think top 15 is possible, but top ten? I'm looking at (not in order):

Heyward

Price

Wieters

Rasmus

Maybin

LaPorta

Porcello

Feliz

Snider

Wood (maybe)

Posey (maybe)

McCutchen (maybe)

Alvarez (maybe)

Hosmer (maybe)

Beckham (maybe)

Fowler (maybe)

Alderson (maybe)

Bumgarner (maybe)

All right in that area -- depends a little on the Fall/Winter leagues. BA had Matusz as their top arm in this past draft, so I'd assume he'll get a good look -- especially if he performs well in the AFL. He's no Price (who was #10 before throwing a pro inning) but BA (or at least Jim Callis) has repeatedly said he was the best arm in the draft.

I don't think the original prediction was way off, but I do feel Tillman was slightly overrated (by making him a potential top 10, and Matusz was highly underrated (dropping him out of the top 30).

If I had to guess, Tillman in the 11-15 range and Matusz in the 22-27 range.

I'd be surprised if any of the new draftees are ahead of Tillman.

[Stotle]

I'd be surprised if any of the new draftees are ahead of Tillman.

Yeah, I tend to agree. The only kids who really could be considered would be Alvarez and Posey. However, I honestly believe you could see Tillman rank ahead of Matusz on the top 100 and Matusz ahead of Tillman on the Orioles top 30.

My point was more that the top 20 will be very crowded -- Tillman should absolutely be there, but the top 10 is a pretty solid battle, as of right now.

[MarkF]

I thought that you were a little harsh on Bascom. Today's Sun points out that in August he had six starts and was 3-0, 3.44 ERA. I know it's only a month but he finished strong, which is a good sign.

http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/sports/minors/blog/2008/09/surveying_the_minors_--_frederick_starting_pitcher_tim_bascom.html

[Frobby]

I thought that you were a little harsh on Bascom. Today's Sun points out that in August he had six starts and was 3-0, 3.44 ERA. I know it's only a month but he finished strong, which is a good sign.

http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/sports/minors/blog/2008/09/surveying_the_minors_--_frederick_starting_pitcher_tim_bascom.html

I did notice that he did better at the end of the season. Still, remember I'm grading on a curve compared to what I expected. And I expected him to do well enough to earn consideration for a mid-season promotion to Bowie. Remember that Bascom was drafted ahead of Arrieta, is older, and already had some experience at Frederick last year.

[Big Mac]

No doubt. He's one of the few offensive prospects worth talking about. Wieters, Reimold, Snyder, Adams. That's about all until you get to the guys we drafted this year. (OK, maybe Henson and Angle, too.)

No Rowell?

His ceiling is higher then any bat in the organization not named Matt Wieters.

[tywright]

If I had to guess, Tillman in the 11-15 range and Matusz in the 22-27 range.

BA ranked Tillman #11 in their mid season rankings

[Frobby]

No Rowell?

His ceiling is higher then any bat in the organization not named Matt Wieters.

A complete oversight on my part. You are absolutely right.