The 5th Starter Competition

[sportsfan8703]

We’re really about to enter a 162 game season with the state of our rotation and MLB SP “depth”?  How the options are shaping up so far,

1. Miguel Castro- Bad knees and hasn’t thrown an official ST inning yet. The state of this ranking. In fairness, I really like Castro, and so does Buck. So does Roy(probably why Castro has had some fluke injuries so far).  Castro makes his debut today and I think he’s going to get treated like he’s an established rotation piece. Meaning he can throw up a few clunkers in the next few weeks and still win the job. 

2. Mike Wright- So far he has 3 GS, 7 IP, and a 0.86 WHIP. Good numbers from the outside, but he’s really isn’t being talked up by the coaching staff or the beat writers. That might be a little telling of what his stats really mean. He’s been throwing the cutter a lot so he definitely does not have a mid 90’s Fastball anymore like when he debuted. 

3. Hunter Harvey- Buck said he’s getting another start. Another start amongst this group means a lot considering the state of the rest of the field. He’s been the talk of ST. He’s probably a year away, but things could get interesting if Castro really blows up. 

4.  Nestor Cortes-  He’s coming off a rough start. His ERA is up to 6.43 now over 3 GS and 7 IP. Buck didn’t have to say he’ll get another start in ST, which is telling. He still has a chance. Especially if we play match ups with our 5th SP spot. I think he could be used in the “T.J. Macfarland” role this year. It’s not starter or bust with him. 

5. Gabriel Ynoa- He’s out with shin splints. The likely buys the O’s some time with him because he’s out of options. So it’s looking like he’ll start the season on the DL, stay in extended ST, use the full amount of rehab time allowed in the minors, and then he will either be called up or have to be DFA’d. 

Three weeks till Opening Day. 

[Bahama O's Fan]

Yeah, this is just getting ridiculous. If Dan is being honest when he says this is the last hurrah for this team then he needs to go get two starters.

[mdbdotcom]

17 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

Yeah, this is just getting ridiculous. If Dan is being honest when he says this is the last hurrah for this team then he needs to go get two starters.

If you were Arrieta, Cobb or Lynn, would you be interested in signing with a team that admits it won't be contending for a playoff spot for a few seasons after this one? These guys are veterans. Arrieta and Lynn have each pitched in the World Series. They want their money, but they also want to win.

[Luke-OH]

Cortes (Lefty)

Wright

Castro 

Mesa (velocity is down, but could jump if he gets it back)

Ynoa (if there wasn't the shin thing going on, he'd be second)

Aquino (Lefty)

Asher

Asher W.

Other non-40 man roster pitcher

(Hunter Harvey is not being considered, and should not be considered.)

[Bahama O's Fan]

1 hour ago, mdbdotcom said:

If you were Arrieta, Cobb or Lynn, would you be interested in signing with a team that admits it won't be contending for a playoff spot for a few seasons after this one? These guys are veterans. Arrieta and Lynn have each pitched in the World Series. They want their money, but they also want to win.

 I know pitching in the AL East is hard, but if you really had confidence in your own abilities, and could have an opt out or a short term contract with success in the AL East on your resume...

[Tony-OH]

I think there are only three true candidates for the 5th starter's spot in reality.

If I had to rank them today, I'd go:

Wright - He's been solid this spring, has added a new pitch, and is out of options. They may just see what he can do for an extended period of time this year.

Castro - The knees thing has put him behind but if he comes in and pitches well, he could get the spot. The things working against him is how good he was in the long/middle role last year. If all things are equal between him and another candidate, I think he goes back to the pen.

Cortes Jr. - The Orioles really want this to work out since he's the only lefty with a shot. Unfortunately the numbers haven't been that good this spring. Even if he fails to win the 5th starter spot I think the Orioles will try to keep him in a relief role.

The other guys are emergency fall back options in my mind. Aquino, Ynoa and Asher are all ticketed for Norfolk unless something significant occurs.

Harvey is probably heading to Frederick or Bowie to start the year.

[wildcard]

I'd rank them:

1. Cobb

2. Lynn

3. Wright

4. Castro

[foxfield]

Just now, wildcard said:

I'd rank them:

1. Cobb

2. Lynn

3. Wright

4. Castro

So Jake is #5?  

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, foxfield said:

So Jake is #5?  

Jake wants 1m for just mentioning his name.  He will not be in Baltimore unless he visits with another team.

[foxfield]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Jake wants 1m for just mentioning his name.  He will not be in Baltimore unless he visits with another team.

So we can't get away with calling him that dude who used to be here before he went and won the Cy?

 

Sigh.....

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

I think there are only three true candidates for the 5th starter's spot in reality.

If I had to rank them today, I'd go:

Wright - He's been solid this spring, has added a new pitch, and is out of options. They may just see what he can do for an extended period of time this year.

Castro - The knees thing has put him behind but if he comes in and pitches well, he could get the spot. The things working against him is how good he was in the long/middle role last year. If all things are equal between him and another candidate, I think he goes back to the pen.

Cortes Jr. - The Orioles really want this to work out since he's the only lefty with a shot. Unfortunately the numbers haven't been that good this spring. Even if he fails to win the 5th starter spot I think the Orioles will try to keep him in a relief role.

The other guys are emergency fall back options in my mind. Aquino, Ynoa and Asher are all ticketed for Norfolk unless something significant occurs.

Harvey is probably heading to Frederick or Bowie to start the year.

I'd hope they wouldn't put much weight on 7 innings worth of numbers. Unfortunately I haven't seen him pitch this spring, so I don't know how he's looking and of course we always prefer good results, but the numbers really don't tell me anything at this point.

For what it's worth here are the FIP numbers for Cortes, Wright, etc (not that FIP is reliable in these small samples, nothing is reliable in these small sample sizes, but more reliable than ERA).

FIP

Nestor Cortes 3.81

Mike Wright 4.67

Jose Mesa 11.56

Gausman .56

Bundy 8.18

Pedro Araujo 1.10 

Harvey 6.60

Ynoa 8.10

Alec Asher 2.10

Asher Woj. 2.80

Aquino 2.43

Joely Rodriguez 1.72

 

The main point is the numbers don't mean much at all. 

[Triple Crown]

The problem I see with Cortes right now, is he's really struggling with right handed hitters. The game I saw righty's all had good AB's against him. I agree with Tony, I believe he will start as a lefty specialist out of the pen. Maybe, he needs more time to adjust to the higher level, but I can't see him being the #5 the way he's struggling right now

[Rene88]

I think Cortes will stay..for the bullpen. Unless his next outings are LIGHTS OUT.

Wright will be the 5th to start the season. As we know, this can change like the wind and will rotate between 10 guys I am sure.

I think Castro begins in the bullpen until he is 100% and I predict he will be our 2nd best starter by year end.

[eddie83]

13 minutes ago, Triple Crown said:

The problem I see with Cortes right now, is he's really struggling with right handed hitters. The game I saw righty's all had good AB's against him. I agree with Tony, I believe he will start as a lefty specialist out of the pen. Maybe, he needs more time to adjust to the higher level, but I can't see him being the #5 the way he's struggling right now

After the Twins, Orioles go into Houston and NY. It’s only one game but no way in the world is Cortes starting vs either of those RH power lineups. 

I would be half tempted to try a mix and match approach like Tampa or pull off what they did last year. In April they only needed a 5th starter twice. One start was Asher and one was Aquino. They may get cute with Castro and send him down at times if needed. 

[Luke-OH]

14 minutes ago, Triple Crown said:

The problem I see with Cortes right now, is he's really struggling with right handed hitters. The game I saw righty's all had good AB's against him. I agree with Tony, I believe he will start as a lefty specialist out of the pen. Maybe, he needs more time to adjust to the higher level, but I can't see him being the #5 the way he's struggling right now

You've seen him pitch this spring and I haven't so I'll take your word for it. He does have a pretty solid track record of having neutral or reverse splits though, perhaps he doesn't have the feel for his changeup yet?