Resigning Manny-Dan or Brady?

[Just Regular]

Wasn't the movie Hitch about this?

[TheBee]

IMO- Many of these players say it isn't about money, and what they mean is it is about respect - which they invariably tie to the amount of money.  So, really, it is about money.

[Luke-OH]

9 hours ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

While I believe, like most people, that Manny will not return, who would you think would have a better chance, as a GM to resign him? Do you think if Dan got an extension or if Brady is installed as the GM? Who is more likely to do it?

It makes zero difference IMO, it’s going to be an ownership call. Im sure he’ll get enough interest that his agent will give the O’s a number to meet and be able to stick to it.

[Il BuonO]

9 hours ago, Sanfran327 said:

If it's truly not about the money, as Manny has said about 37 times now, why haven't they at least have an exploratory conversation with him? If he can be had for $200M or less, you have to do it. Have to.

Eh, that’s not happening.

[Il BuonO]

1 hour ago, atomic said:

No way I would offer him that deal. That would end up being a terrible deal for the club.  Why have another albatros of a contract. We already have Davis contract.  

That’s completely fair, comparing Davis’ to Machado.

[Just Regular]

Jeff Moorad: "He was a real warrior"

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2000/12/14/manny-ramirez-perfect-fit-newest-red-sox/5bSUVtkd6wN4bbOUE2O7IN/story.html

The agent's take regarding Duquette's get of prime Manny Ramirez back in the day.  I have very little doubt Davis happened against Duquette's professional advice, and believe he's a tight poker player who will push for the right player, which Machado obviously is.  Davis could really help us out this year if he could be perhaps 33% as good instead of 10% or worse.

[atomic]

38 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

That’s completely fair, comparing Davis’ to Machado.

Bad contract is a bad contract.   How well do 10 year contracts usually turn out.   Also 30 million a year too high. 

[TheBee]

2 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

Jeff Moorad: "He was a real warrior"

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2000/12/14/manny-ramirez-perfect-fit-newest-red-sox/5bSUVtkd6wN4bbOUE2O7IN/story.html

The agent's take regarding Duquette's get of prime Manny Ramirez back in the day.  I have very little doubt Davis happened against Duquette's professional advice, and believe he's a tight poker player who will push for the right player, which Machado obviously is.  Davis could really help us out this year if he could be perhaps 33% as good instead of 10% or worse.

I agree on Davis, and I will root for the guy.  At least his defense is always great.  What worries me is (I have seen very little of his abs this spring - especially with his injury), how lost he was approach-wise and physically at the plate last year.  He would work the count to a FB situation, get an average fastball, have it be in a hittable location, and still be behind it.  He often looked stuck in the middle to me.  Remember how hitters used to look against Schilling.  Too slow on the fastball because the splitter was in their head but ahead of the splitter in case it was a fastball.

[Il BuonO]

9 hours ago, atomic said:

Bad contract is a bad contract.   How well do 10 year contracts usually turn out.   Also 30 million a year too high. 

That’s why it’s a dumb comparison. Machado was always the better bet to be a positive return for a long term deal. You’re paying for seven out of those ten years while he’s in his prime. You think Davis was in his prime when they signed him? And maybe two or three of those years are negative, but it isn’t a foregone conclusion either. He’ll be 36.

Davis arguably should not have been signed to anything more than three years, two of which have 

So, again, not a good comparison.

 

[atomic]

55 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

That’s why it’s a dumb comparison. Machado was always the better bet to be a positive return for a long term deal. You’re paying for seven out of those ten years while he’s in his prime. You think Davis was in his prime when they signed him? And maybe two or three of those years are negative, but it isn’t a foregone conclusion either. He’ll be 36.

Davis arguably should not have been signed to anything more than three years, two of which have 

So, again, not a good comparison.

 

I am not sure why you can't understand.  Two horrible contracts.  Doesn't matter that Davis contract is worse. If you end up having two guys on the team you are paying a total of 53 million a year who are not producing how do you think your team will do?  Manny has bad knees.  The odds of a 10 year 300 million contract not turning out horribly are extremely remote.  If Machado has a year like Altuve had last season I wouldn't be opposed to giving him something similar to Altuve just received.   If he turns out and performs at another 3.7 WAR year I would  give him maybe 5 /100 million contract. 

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, atomic said:

I am not sure why you can't understand.  Two horrible contracts.  Doesn't matter that Davis contract is worse. If you end up having two guys on the team you are paying a total of 53 million a year who are not producing how do you think your team will do?  Manny has bad knees.  The odds of a 10 year 300 million contract not turning out horribly are extremely remote.  If Machado has a year like Altuve had last season I wouldn't be opposed to giving him something similar to Altuve just received.   If he turns out and performs at another 3.7 WAR year I would  give him maybe 5 /100 million contract. 

You are so far off-base here.    First of all, Manny’s knees had a congenital condition that has been surgically repaired and from what I’ve read he’s at no more risk than any other player.   He’s played 162, 157 and 156 games since having the second surgery.    

Second, Manny is 25 and has been worth $201 mm in less than 5 years of playing time (fangraphs valuation).    The odds that he will exceed $300 mm in value in the next 10 years are very good.    He’s been worth $45 mm+ in three of his four full seasons, last year being the exception when he was worth “only” $23 mm.    I want to see him rebound this year, but if we could lock him up at 10/$300 mm I’d do it in a heartbeat.   

[atomic]

Just now, Frobby said:

You are so far off-base here.    First of all, Manny’s knees had a congenital condition that has been surgically repaired and from what I’ve read he’s at no more risk than any other player.   He’s played 162, 157 and 156 games since having the second surgery.    

Second, Manny is 25 and has been worth $201 mm in less than 5 years of playing time (fangraphs valuation).    The odds that he will exceed $300 mm in value in the next 10 years are very good.    He’s been worth $45 mm+ in three of his four full seasons, last year being the exception when he was worth “only” $23 mm.    I want to see him rebound this year, but if we could lock him up at 10/$300 mm I’d do it in a heartbeat.   

Well it will be 11 years before we can argue who is right or who is wrong.  He has said he has pain in his knees this spring training.  This worth 201 million is not true. It is just some made up stat.  You can't say a  player is worth 201 million because of his WAR.  Did he cause the Orioles to sell 201 million dollars more in tickets?  Anyway it is obvious the Orioles wouldn't do anything close to that.  A lot of Davis contract is deffered.  So it is probably worth less than 140 million.  And Davis' production in 2016 was similar to Manny's in 2017.  

I like how everyone wants to trade Manny for prospects yet claims he is worth 300 million dollars. Pick a side.  

[Frobby]

Just now, atomic said:

Well it will be 11 years before we can argue who is right or who is wrong.  He has said he has pain in his knees this spring training.  This worth 201 million is not true. It is just some made up stat.  You can't say a  player is worth 201 million because of his WAR.  Did he cause the Orioles to sell 201 million dollars more in tickets?  Anyway it is obvious the Orioles wouldn't do anything close to that.  A lot of Davis contract is deffered.  So it is probably worth less than 140 million.  And Davis' production in 2016 was similar to Manny's in 2017.  

I like how everyone wants to trade Manny for prospects yet claims he is worth 300 million dollars. Pick a side.  

Davis’ contract has been valued at $147 mm due to the deferrals.    Per fangraphs, he had been worth about $110 mm in his career as of free agency, and was through his age 29 season.     He is nowhere near as good a player as Manny.   I will grant you that Davis’ 2016 season was about as good as Manny’s 2017.   Every season Manny has played has been better than Davis in 2012, 2014 and 2017.    And the age thing is much more important than you seem willing to acknowledge.   

Also, I don’t see any inconsistency between thinking Manny is worth $300 mm and wanting to trade him.    If the team isn’t going to pay him the $300 mm that many other teams will, he’s going to be gone in a year, and that’s the reason to trade him.    But I’d much rather sign him.  

[Il BuonO]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Davis’ contract has been valued at $147 mm due to the deferrals.    Per fangraphs, he had been worth about $110 mm in his career as of free agency, and was through his age 29 season.     He is nowhere near as good a player as Manny. Every season Manny has played has been better than Davis in 2012, 2014 and 2017.    And the age thing is much more important than you seem willing to acknowledge or understand.

Also, I don’t see any inconsistency between thinking Manny is worth $300 mm and wanting to trade him.    If the team isn’t going to pay him the $300 mm that many other teams will, he’s going to be gone in a year, and that’s the reason to trade him.    But I’d much rather sign him.  

Ftfy....sometimes these things are tough to grasp, but not here. Pretty straightforward stuff.

[atomic]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Davis’ contract has been valued at $147 mm due to the deferrals.    Per fangraphs, he had been worth about $110 mm in his career as of free agency, and was through his age 29 season.     He is nowhere near as good a player as Manny.   I will grant you that Davis’ 2016 season was about as good as Manny’s 2017.   Every season Manny has played has been better than Davis in 2012, 2014 and 2017.    And the age thing is much more important than you seem willing to acknowledge.   

Also, I don’t see any inconsistency between thinking Manny is worth $300 mm and wanting to trade him.    If the team isn’t going to pay him the $300 mm that many other teams will, he’s going to be gone in a year, and that’s the reason to trade him.    But I’d much rather sign him.  

Where  did I say that Chris Davis was anywhere as good as Manny? I was against signing Davis for any amount.  I am saying a 300 million dollar contract over 10 years will be a terrible contract.  I also said that if Manny can put up 8 War this season I would be willing to give him a 5 year 151 million.  dollar contract. That is more than Chris Davis received.  If Manny puts up less than 4 WAR this season I certainly wouldn't give him a 5 year 151 million dollar contract.  He wouldn't be as good as Adam Jones when we last signed him.  At a certain number of years and dollars any player contract can be a terrible contract whomever the player.