Glenn Davis or Chris Davis?

[Aglets]

3 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Fielder retired, so maybe he is not getting paid?

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2017/10/04/fielder-released-by-rangers-more-than-year-after-last-game/106311636/

Looks like Fielder never retired.  Texas formally released him last October so they are still on the hook for most of his salary, with Detroit contributing 6-7M of it each year.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

20 minutes ago, Aglets said:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2017/10/04/fielder-released-by-rangers-more-than-year-after-last-game/106311636/

Looks like Fielder never retired.  Texas formally released him last October so they are still on the hook for most of his salary, with Detroit contributing 6-7M of it each year.

Orioles have to start thinking about this with Davis, probably wouldn’t be until after this season.  

[Aglets]

The two situations aren't really that similar.  Fielder was literally physically unable to perform due to his neck.

A better comparison is Sandoval, and it looks like Boston released him with 2.5 years left on his deal (and roughly $50M remaining).

Davis is still owed a LOT more than that.   It will be comparable about halfway through 2020.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Aglets said:

The two situations aren't really that similar.  Fielder was literally physically unable to perform due to his neck.

A better comparison is Sandoval, and it looks like Boston released him with 2.5 years left on his deal (and roughly $50M remaining).

Davis is still owed a LOT more than that.   It will be comparable about halfway through 2020.

Angels ate almost 80M to get rid of Hamilton.

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Angels ate almost 80M to get rid of Hamilton.

I think what it boils down to is no amount is too much to eat if you are very confident that the player is never going to be productive again.  If we felt 100% confident today that Davis is never going to do any better than he did in 2017, I’d say the money is irrelevant, because he’s literally worse than a guy we could pick up for the league minimum.    

However, if you think there’s even an outside chance that he could return to being, say, a 1 WAR player, then you kind of have to keep him until that outside chance has become extremely improbable.   As a practical matter, I’m not there yet.    I might be by the end of this season, and in the interim we certainly don’t need to play him every day.    If the way we eke 1 WAR out of him is by limiting his exposure to lefties and premium velocity righties, so be it.   Eke it out however you can.   

[Aglets]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Angels ate almost 80M to get rid of Hamilton.

and Chris Davis is a former Ranger too!

This was a trade though,  you think they might bite on Davis?   Color me skeptical.

[wildbillhiccup]

2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

His extension kicked in for the 2012 season.  Starting in 2008 his rWAR totals were 1.8, 3.8, 1.2, 1.2, -1.2....  His 2008 season was a carbon copy of Mark Trumbo's 2016.  Led the league in homers, but was a defensively challenged guy who was 45th in the majors in OPS+.  Hopefully one of the last MVP votes that pretty much ignored everything but RBI.

In '08 Albert Pujols beat Howard in OPS by 230 points, hit .357 with a .462 OBP, was a plus defensive first baseman, yet came pretty close to losing the MVP because RBI rock.

..but he signed the extension in 2010 and was coming off two MVP-like seasons. Regardless of what his rWAR was (they weren't paying him for his defense)  the Phillies at least had some justification for believing he would continue to hit. Even if you want to call Howard an Davis a wash (which I don't believe) Davis' contract is worse because of the additional years. 

[Ohfan67]

3 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Oh that's bad, too.

See the pattern?  Just don't sign big, slow, sluggers on the far end of the defensive spectrum to contracts into their mid-30s.

I actually think that the majority if not all of the GM's now see this, although their vision may become strained by particularly circumstances. I think the problem for some teams going forward is that ownership may not always see this. 

[DrungoHazewood]

15 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

..but he signed the extension in 2010 and was coming off two MVP-like seasons. Regardless of what his rWAR was (they weren't paying him for his defense)  the Phillies at least had some justification for believing he would continue to hit. Even if you want to call Howard an Davis a wash (which I don't believe) Davis' contract is worse because of the additional years. 

Yes, Ruben Amaro was never one to embrace modern metrics.  I'm sure lots of RBI and some MVP votes were more than enough to convince him to sign the Phil's Boog Powell of the 2000s.  Boog was MVP at 28, then never had 100 RBI again, and only played 120+ games three more times.  It's not like big, slow, slugging first basemen declining early is a new thing.

[wildbillhiccup]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Yes, Ruben Amaro was never one to embrace modern metrics.  I'm sure lots of RBI and some MVP votes were more than enough to convince him to sign the Phil's Boog Powell of the 2000s.  Boog was MVP at 28, then never had 100 RBI again, and only played 120+ games three more times.  It's not like big, slow, slugging first basemen declining early is a new thing.

Every coin has two sides. Modern metrics said the Heyward signing was a good move, but it really wasn't. I'm all for embracing new statistical data, but I'm also not going to fault a man for trying to lock up a player 45+  HRs / 140+ RBI seasons. And if Howard received MVP votes then it wasn't just Ruben Amaro who thought he was a good player. 

Again, I'm not arguing that the Howard contract was a bad one...it's just not as bad as the Chris Davis contract. Couple that with the Ubaldo contract and the Orioles have made two of the worst free agent signings in recent memory. Goes back to my point about whoever's making the decisions (Angelos, Showalter, Duquette, Anderson, etc.) not being a good evaluator of talent. 

I'm really curious to see how this Cobb signing works out too. I'm not convinced (yet) that he's that much better than Hellickson. 

[atomic]

2 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Every coin has two sides. Modern metrics said the Heyward signing was a good move, but it really wasn't. I'm all for embracing new statistical data, but I'm also not going to fault a man for trying to lock up a player 45+  HRs / 140+ RBI seasons. And if Howard received MVP votes then it wasn't just Ruben Amaro who thought he was a good player. 

Again, I'm not arguing that the Howard contract was a bad one...it's just not as bad as the Chris Davis contract. Couple that with the Ubaldo contract and the Orioles have made two of the worst free agent signings in recent memory. Goes back to my point about whoever's making the decisions (Angelos, Showalter, Duquette, Anderson, etc.) not being a good evaluator of talent. 

I'm really curious to see how this Cobb signing works out too. I'm not convinced (yet) that he's that much better than Hellickson. 

Howard never hit below .250 when his contract was signed.  Chris Davis hit below .200 the 2 years before his contract was signed. And Davis was below replacement level in 2009, 2010, and 2011.   I don't think Chris Davis being awful should have surprised anyone. 

[wildbillhiccup]

1 hour ago, atomic said:

Howard never hit below .250 when his contract was signed.  Chris Davis hit below .200 the 2 years before his contract was signed. And Davis was below replacement level in 2009, 2010, and 2011.   I don't think Chris Davis being awful should have surprised anyone. 

I'm on your side! Chris Davis is terrible...and so it his contract...and so is the Orioles' ability to evaluate talent. 

[DrungoHazewood]

On ‎4‎/‎18‎/‎2018 at 10:33 AM, atomic said:

Howard never hit below .250 when his contract was signed.  Chris Davis hit below .200 the 2 years before his contract was signed. And Davis was below replacement level in 2009, 2010, and 2011.   I don't think Chris Davis being awful should have surprised anyone. 

You're arguing with a straight face that performance years before the contract, before a player was even established as a major leaguer, are predominantly what you'd use when judging the future value of a player?

[atomic]

14 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

You're arguing with a straight face that performance years before the contract, before a player was even established as a major leaguer, are predominantly what you'd use when judging the future value of a player?

I would say being consistent before the contract would be more likely to be consistent after contract.  I would say Machado has a higher chance of being above average player than Davis did before his free agent year. 

Howard had 7 straight seasons of 2 or more offensive WAR Davis had 4 such seasons in his career.   Davis was less likely to be productive as he age. 

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, atomic said:

I would say being consistent before the contract would be more likely to be consistent after contract.  I would say Machado has a higher chance of being above average player than Davis did before his free agent year. 

Howard had 7 straight seasons of 2 or more offensive WAR Davis had 4 such seasons in his career.   Davis was less likely to be productive as he age. 

I think I classified both contracts as being high risk when they were signed.