Fangraphs’ Edwards: O’s playoff chances are now 1000-1

[Just Regular]

As long as we're looking past the chance at going 16-5 in the next 21 games against the lighter schedule as 1000-to-1 says we should, I'll be the conductor of the Yandy Diaz train.

Indians are the best fit I can see - they have the brother-in-law, the old rotation that's never going to be any better than it is today, the mid-market revenues that aren't going to support retaining impending free agents Andrew Miller and Cody Allen and perhaps not either.  This year they are about as good as the Astros, Red Sox and Yankees, and that's something that may not be true again for a while.  Francisco Lindor's already reportedly turned down a $100M extension, so they have him three more arb years, after which Zimmer/Mejia/Ramirez/McKenzie is an okay core, but maybe not championship level.

I think Diaz can be the Chiseled Randy Milligan for a new generation.  He hits the ball hard, but on the ground all the time, so could improve (explode?) if he can ever get it in the air more.  He's 26 and in 1600 minor league PA has more walks than strikeouts and a 314/413/416 line.  He's a Cuban emigre who has been a little old for his levels, but I think he's one of the best hitters stuck in AAA.  He's off prospect lists as he has 156 MLB AB's.  Even if all he can do in his age 27-32 seasons is hit a Chance Sisco-y 270/335/390 - Sisco's current .333 OBP is 3rd on the team and, for the moment, 50 ahead of any other regular.  I'm not sure how he fields.

Nice as it would be, I don't think a true blue chip like Mejia is realistic for a rental, though I'd love to be surprised.  Diaz is a low enough profile that while he's my first target, you might be able to get the Indians to give another interesting player with him.

[Spy Fox]

Our front office is going to hold out hope for a while more. I doubt a trade gets serious consideration until/unless the calendar flips to June and the O's are still significantly under .500. 

[bpilktree]

1000-1 That is better odds then another Baltimore team just a month ago that had those odds and went on to knock off number 1 seed Virginia.

[Hank Scorpio]

I'm not sure Craig Edwards truly grasps the jaw droppingly out of touch sense of itself this organization truly has.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, bpilktree said:

1000-1 That is better odds then another Baltimore team just a month ago that had those odds and went on to knock off number 1 seed Virginia.

It's better than the 3000-1 odds they had to win the tournament but no where near as good as the 20-1 and 25-1 odds they had to overcome to beat Virginia.

[pastorfan]

16 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

Our front office is going to hold out hope for a while more. I doubt a trade gets serious consideration until/unless the calendar flips to June and the O's are still significantly under .500. 

In the real world, but in the Oriole world they will not trade him no matter what. 

[now]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

It's better than the 3000-1 odds they had to win the tournament but no where near as good as the 20-1 and 25-1 odds they had to overcome to beat Virginia.

Also I imagine those basketball odds were largely subjective, based on seeding rank, rather than the AL playoff odds which are mathematical based on number of games remaining and the wins required to reach ~90.

[Just Regular]

One of Fangraphs prospect guys got the open-ended Machado question in this afternoon's chat, and he went:

Guest

1:06

Just bought the Orioles.  Who am I trying to get for Machado from the DBacks Indians or Cards?  I need quantity, right?

 

Eric A Longenhagen

1:08

Should be asking the Dbacks for Robinson+, scouring CLE's backfields for their best J2 guy from last year and some of their superfluous upper level guys like Bradley and Chang and asking for 3 or 4 guys from STL's upper levels

 

Piggybacking on his STL upper levels - Harrison Bader or Tyler O'Neill are talented blocked OF's, Andrew Knizner and Carson Kelly are talented blocked C's, and Conner Greene, Dakota Hudson and Austin Gomber are high minors SP's who will struggle to ever unseat Martinez/Weaver/Wacha/Reyes/Flaherty

[Hank Scorpio]

How long before Manny gets hit by lightning?

We're all thinking it...

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

How long before Manny gets hit by lightning?

We're all thinking it...

Hamate.

Or torn Achilles.

[atomic]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Hamate.

Or torn Achilles.

Worse case scenario is he gets an injury that will keep him out all of 2018.  Then you can't even get a pick for him.  

[atomic]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-manny-machado-trade-has-become-inevitable/

Mostly the article is about trading Manny, and it says it’s inevitable that he’ll be traded, but that now isn’t necessarily the time to pull the trigger.   It mentions the DBacks and Cardinals as likely matches.   

These odds are pretty meaningless. I mean Fanagraphs aren't going to take bets on that. If I wagered a thousand and the Orioles made they playoffs they would owe me a million. 

[atomic]

The 2001 A's started 8-17 and finished 102- 60.  So if the Orioles win their next two games they will in perfect position.  

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

24 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Hamate.

Or torn Achilles.

Shush, but with the way this year is going I wouldn't be surprised.  If I had to place odds, it would be one of Manny's knees getting shredded again.  

[Ohfan67]

3 hours ago, Beef Supreme said:

Doesn't make sense to me. His friend gets traded so, because of that, Mussina suddenly decides he will not relent about his own no-trade clause. Truly a head-scratching claim.

He was ticked because he took a below market, team friendly deal to stay with Orioles and help them have the cash to acquire other players. Tom Glavine was a union rep at the time and publicly called Mussina out for taking a below market deal. The Os then traded away players and cut their budget. And Sid traded for damaged and mediocrce players to top it all off.  He was seriously peeved.