Chicago Sun: Cubs interested in Manny

[Hallas]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

A variance in opinion exists on how much half a season of Machado is worth.

Don't worry I'm sure ownership won't sign off on just one of those three, he'll take the pick instead.

There aren't too many comparables.  If you believe he's an 8-WAR player this year (which isn't unfathomable given his start) then 1/2 season of him would be worth 4 wins.  Since he's taking over for Addison Russell, who's probably worth 1 WAR over 1/2 season, that's a 3 WAR advantage for the Cubs.  But of course, the going rate is going to be for the total wins that Machado provides, so he's giving them 4 WAR.

Based on this article, the going rate for wins in July was about 15 million per win in 2014.  Since it's now 2018, we can increase that to 18 million (assuming ~5% interest per year.)

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-attempt-to-find-the-the-market-price-for-wins-in-july/

So the Orioles should expect to command about $72 million expected surplus value in prospects.  That means we should be getting 1 truly elite hitting prospect, and 1-2 fringe guys thrown in, or some combination of 3 elite pitchers and/or very good position players, with 2-3 fringe guys mixed in.  The Cubs don't have the farm to give this sort of package, and frankly the number of teams that have this sort of package to give away is rather small.

If you think Machado's actually a 6.5-WAR player (which is around what ZIPS expects from him) then it becomes a little easier to stomach the return value with a Machado trade; you're looking at about 55 million in surplus value returned.  We can do that with 2 good-to-very-good prospects. + 2-3 fringe guys.

From the Cubs, we would have to assume that he's closer to a 6.5 win player, because they cannot come up with a package for Machado otherwise.  I think that getting Aramis Ademan should be top priority, followed by Ian Happ.  There's been some talk about sending Happ down, so that might be a decent pickup for a player that could fit in immediately (albeit with some infield shifting.)  If we get both back, I would probably call that a deal and be pretty happy with it.  If possible I'd try and get them to throw in some fringe arms such a as Bryan Hudson or Thomas Hatch.  I'm not really sure how open the Cubs are to trading Happ, which is the big hang-up.  We could sub him out for Adzolay, but of course, pitching prospects are more risky.

[JohnD]

1 hour ago, mdbdotcom said:

Cubs should post their offer on Tinder and hope Angelos swipes the wrong way.

Does tinder work with rotary phones?

[Roll Tide]

3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

If the Cubs want Manny, who should the Orioles target in return?

Azolay, Ademan, Little, Maples and  Clifton

 

its a lot but their system is lacking top 100 guys and you need a chance or two more than you'd get from a team with a good system.

[DirtyBird]

Just now, Roll Tide said:

Azolay, Ademan, Little, Maples and  Clifton

 

its a lot but their system is lacking top 100 guys and you need a chance or two more than you'd get from a team with a good system.

Or target a young player who has reached the majors and is essentially their 4th OF'er

[Rich Mac]

44 minutes ago, Hallas said:

There aren't too many comparables.  If you believe he's an 8-WAR player this year (which isn't unfathomable given his start) then 1/2 season of him would be worth 4 wins.  Since he's taking over for Addison Russell, who's probably worth 1 WAR over 1/2 season, that's a 3 WAR advantage for the Cubs.  But of course, the going rate is going to be for the total wins that Machado provides, so he's giving them 4 WAR.

Based on this article, the going rate for wins in July was about 15 million per win in 2014.  Since it's now 2018, we can increase that to 18 million (assuming ~5% interest per year.)

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-attempt-to-find-the-the-market-price-for-wins-in-july/

So the Orioles should expect to command about $72 million expected surplus value in prospects.  That means we should be getting 1 truly elite hitting prospect, and 1-2 fringe guys thrown in, or some combination of 3 elite pitchers and/or very good position players, with 2-3 fringe guys mixed in.  The Cubs don't have the farm to give this sort of package, and frankly the number of teams that have this sort of package to give away is rather small.

If you think Machado's actually a 6.5-WAR player (which is around what ZIPS expects from him) then it becomes a little easier to stomach the return value with a Machado trade; you're looking at about 55 million in surplus value returned.  We can do that with 2 good-to-very-good prospects. + 2-3 fringe guys.

From the Cubs, we would have to assume that he's closer to a 6.5 win player, because they cannot come up with a package for Machado otherwise.  I think that getting Aramis Ademan should be top priority, followed by Ian Happ.  There's been some talk about sending Happ down, so that might be a decent pickup for a player that could fit in immediately (albeit with some infield shifting.)  If we get both back, I would probably call that a deal and be pretty happy with it.  If possible I'd try and get them to throw in some fringe arms such a as Bryan Hudson or Thomas Hatch.  I'm not really sure how open the Cubs are to trading Happ, which is the big hang-up.  We could sub him out for Adzolay, but of course, pitching prospects are more risky.

You're putting a tremendous amount of pressure on that draft pick.

[Go_Os]

The Cubs have zero top 100 prospects (at least not according to Keith Law and MLB.com).   We need to target lower minors prospects with the potential upside to be an All-Star.  The Cubs are not a good match.

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, birdwatcher55 said:

I'm starting to come around to the thinking he's here for the duration and we get the draft pick.

 

I'd still want Azolay, Maples, and Little to go with the 4Th OF. One player is not going to fix the Orioles problems. They need gaggles of quality prospects to rebuild from the ground up.

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018?list=chc

[Dark Helmet]

This year is lost. Trade Manny for some prospects.  And if you feel inclined, go after him again this winter. Not that I believe they will do either.

[wildbillhiccup]

1 minute ago, Dark Helmet said:

This year is lost. Trade Manny for some prospects.  And if you feel inclined, go after him again this winter. Not that I believe they will do either.

Hello, yes I have reality on the phone. He'd like me to let you know that Manny never had any intention of resigning with the Orioles...ever. He also asks that you repeat this to yourself 1,000 times or however long it takes it to sink in. 

[Dark Helmet]

23 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Hello, yes I have reality on the phone. He'd like me to let you know that Manny never had any intention of resigning with the Orioles...ever. He also asks that you repeat this to yourself 1,000 times or however long it takes it to sink in. 

Did I say he had any intentions of signing here? Let this bit of reality set in.. Manny will sign where the most money is. IF that was Baltimore...hed have every intention of signing here.

[DirtyBird]

 

1 hour ago, Hallas said:

 

From the Cubs, we would have to assume that he's closer to a 6.5 win player, because they cannot come up with a package for Machado otherwise.  I think that getting Aramis Ademan should be top priority, followed by Ian Happ.  There's been some talk about sending Happ down, so that might be a decent pickup for a player that could fit in immediately (albeit with some infield shifting.)  If we get both back, I would probably call that a deal and be pretty happy with it.  If possible I'd try and get them to throw in some fringe arms such a as Bryan Hudson or Thomas Hatch.  I'm not really sure how open the Cubs are to trading Happ, which is the big hang-up.  We could sub him out for Adzolay, but of course, pitching prospects are more risky.

Is he even a better prospect than Adam Hall?

[wildbillhiccup]

7 minutes ago, Dark Helmet said:

Did I say he had any intentions of signing here? Let this bit of reality set in.. Manny will sign where the most money is. IF that was Baltimore...hed have every intention of signing here.

When has the most money ever been in Baltimore (except when they've bid against themselves)?

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, wildbillhiccup said:

When has the most money ever been in Baltimore (except when they've bid against themselves)?

Back in the 90's.  Oh, and Tejada.

[wildbillhiccup]

I still don't understand why we aren't interested in Javier Baez...

[Tryptamine]

1 minute ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I still don't understand why we aren't interested in Javier Baez...

Because it's not realistic. The Cubs aren't going to give up 4 years of a guy who has finally broken out and is on pace for a monster season, not for half a season anyways.