WAR of Orioles' drafts

[Ohfan67]

All the recent discussion of drafts mixed with how poorly the team is playing this year and the recent poor performance of the front office spurred me to look at the WAR associated with many of the Orioles drafts. They really did have some stinkers! For 2005, for example, the team barely got any positive WAR for the whole draft. I think the cumulative for the Orioles from that draft is about 2 (David Hernandez has produced just over 5 for his career, but only 1.5 was with the Orioles). The 1999 draft is notorious because the Orioles had 7 picks in the 1st round (7 of first 50) and six of those seven were busts (Bigbie did produce some positive WAR). But they also drafted Brian Roberts and Eric Bedard in that draft. They produced over 40 combined WAR for the Orioles and of course Bedard was flipped for another significant chunk of WAR via the Seattle trade. Some of the early picks seemed really dumb at the time and still seem pretty dumb, but overall that draft was successful.  Anyway, I really enjoyed looking at WAR for each of the drafts. Here's the link to 1999, for example: https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?team_ID=BAL&year_ID=1999&draft_type=junreg&query_type=franch_year

Clicking through several years is pretty fun. Enjoy. 

[jtschrei]

Nice topic. I enjoyed this. It's interesting to analyze the 1st round picks and it seems to me that: 

A. You want a pick in the top 4.

B. Don't mess it up. Looking at the top 4 picks since 2007 we've did pretty well except for Matusz.  

+ 2007  Wieters, 1:4 17.9 WAR

+ 2008  Matusz, 1:4, 2.3 WAR (Posey and his 40 career WAR went 1:5... but we already had Wieters)

+ 2009 outside of top 4 (Hobgood, 1:5)

+ 2010 Machado, 1:3, 30 WAR

+ 2011 Bundy, 1:4, currently 5 WAR (I believe he will get to 10WAR at least)

+ 2012 Gausman, 1:4, currently 9.2 WAR

Have not had near a top 4 pick since 2012. 

C. We don't want to win this year. We want to be really bad. There is a much greater chance of hitting a pick when it is in the Top 4. 

Between 2000-2007, we only had 1 top 4 pick even though every one of those seasons was a losing season. The 1 top 4 pick was Adam Loewen. The one decent player we got was Nick Markakis (drafted #7). 

My point is that we don't want to just be mildly bad. We want to be really bad. We want a top 4 pick at least next year. The percentages just move more in your favor. It's still a bit of crap shoot, but less so than if you are just picking in the top 15. 

 

 

 

[Ohfan67]

Yes, the Orioles insistence on over spending on mediocre free agents really screwed up their draft picks in the early 2000s, if I remember correctly. They should have had a lot more top ten picks. The team has never managed the pick game well regardless of the rules. 

[jtschrei]

20 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

Yes, the Orioles insistence on over spending on mediocre free agents really screwed up their draft picks in the early 2000s, if I remember correctly. They should have had a lot more top ten picks. The team has never managed the pick game well regardless of the rules. 

Which is all the more galling because the draft is the only way they build the system. 

[99ct]

Haha not a lot of WAR going on. The most interesting thing I learned is that Markakis has a higher life time WAR than Arrietta. Who would have thought?

[Frobby]

10 hours ago, jtschrei said:

Nice topic. I enjoyed this. It's interesting to analyze the 1st round picks and it seems to me that: 

A. You want a pick in the top 4.

B. Don't mess it up. Looking at the top 4 picks since 2007 we've did pretty well except for Matusz.  

+ 2007  Wieters, 1:4 17.9 WAR

+ 2008  Matusz, 1:4, 2.3 WAR (Posey and his 40 career WAR went 1:5... but we already had Wieters)

+ 2009 outside of top 4 (Hobgood, 1:5)

+ 2010 Machado, 1:3, 30 WAR

+ 2011 Bundy, 1:4, currently 5 WAR (I believe he will get to 10WAR at least)

+ 2012 Gausman, 1:4, currently 9.2 WAR

Have not had near a top 4 pick since 2012. 

C. We don't want to win this year. We want to be really bad. There is a much greater chance of hitting a pick when it is in the Top 4. 

Between 2000-2007, we only had 1 top 4 pick even though every one of those seasons was a losing season. The 1 top 4 pick was Adam Loewen. The one decent player we got was Nick Markakis (drafted #7). 

My point is that we don't want to just be mildly bad. We want to be really bad. We want a top 4 pick at least next year. The percentages just move more in your favor.

 

 

You list Wieters as 1:4, but he was 1:5.    That changes your analysis considerably.  

[ThomasTomasz]

One of the things that really ticks me off about our development system is that we can't even develop back-end roster filler.  You look at utility players, backup infielders, platoon players, bullpen arms, fifth starters on most competitive teams, and those positions are filled internally.  Lets even look at the 2014 team: 

Utility: Ryan Flaherty (Rule 5) 

Bench: Steve Pearce, Jimmy Paredes, Alejandro de Aza, Delmon Young, David Lough, Kelly Johnson 

SP: No one in the rotation was an Orioles-developed player this season except for Kevin Gausman

RP: Zach Britton and Brian Matusz were the only in-house developed players.  

Lets look at it a different way, who was developed in-house by this team?

Matt Wieters, Caleb Joseph

2B: Jonathan Schoop

3B: Manny Machado 

OF: Nick Markakis

SP: Kevin Gausman

RP: Zach Britton, Brian Matusz

On a team that won a division, 8 players were grown in house.  The rest were brought in as FA signings or trades.  You can't sustain success like that.  Looking at the Cubs and Astros from the past two championship teams, nearly half or more of those players were developed in-house by their respective teams.  

Until we get more out of this minor league system, which includes using all avenues to acquiring talent (international spending) and getting rid of cookie-cutter philosophies (the minimalist windup and slidestep from all pitchers) then we aren't going to have sustained success and will repeat the patterns we have seen before.