The sac fly thread (in Roy’s honor)

[Frobby]

This thread is dedicated to Roy’s belief that the Orioles are uniquely inept at getting sacrifice flies.    So far in 2018, the league hits a sac fly in 12.7% of the opportunities, and the O’s are at 13.0% after today.   

Roy’s second argument is that the O’s only hit sac flies when it’s meaningless.   So, I’ve been compelled to look up every sac fly we’ve had this year.

April 3: Narrowed deficit to 3-2 in the 4th inning

April 11: Increased lead to 3-1 in the 4th inning

April 13: Gave the O’s a 1-0 lead in the 1st inning

April 18: Broke a 2-2 tie in the 8th inning

May 2: Gave the O’s a 1-0 lead in the 1st inning

May 2: Narrowed deficit to 10-6 in the 9th inning

May 8: Narrowed deficit to 15-6 in the 9th inning

May 19: Gave the O’s a 1-0 lead in the 3rd inning

May 27: Gave the O’s a 1-0 lead in the 1st inning

June 5: Increased the O’s lead to 2-0 in the 1st inning

June 6: Broke a 0-0 tie in the 8th inning

June 7: Gave the O’s a 1-0 lead in the 1st inning

So, 7 of the 12 sac flies gave the O’s the lead; 3 others came when the game was within 1-2 runs.    There were only two sac flies that can be said to have occurred in “garbage time.”

The O’s have hit 7 sac flies in situations BB-ref deems “high leverage.”   That’s 7th in the AL, despite the fact that the O’s are dead last in the league in sac fly opportunities.

In short, we’re about average at hitting sac flies.     We’re about average, maybe a little better, at hitting them in high leverage situations.    Our big problem is that we aren’t generating enough sac fly opportunities, or RISP opportunities in general.

And yes, Roy, I intend to update this thread every single time we hit a sac fly.

 

 

 

 

 

[Can_of_corn]

Nice job Sisyphus.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Nice job Sisyphus.

I do it for my own gratification, as well as for anyone else who actually feels like looking at facts.  

[OFFNY]

o

 

ROY FIRESTONE ))) ENOTSERIF YOR

 

o

[OFFNY]

57 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

This thread is dedicated to Roy’s belief that the Orioles are uniquely inept at getting sacrifice flies.    So far in 2018, the league hits a sac fly in 12.7% of the opportunities, and the O’s are at 13.0% after today.   

Roy’s second argument is that the O’s only hit sac flies when it’s meaningless.   So, I’ve been compelled to look up every sac fly we’ve had this year.

April 3: Narrowed deficit to 3-2 in the 4th inning

April 11: Increased lead to 3-1 in the 4th inning

April 13: Gave the O’s a 1-0 lead in the 1st inning

April 18: Broke a 2-2 tie in the 8th inning

May 2: Gave the O’s a 1-0 lead in the 1st inning

May 2: Narrowed deficit to 10-6 in the 9th inning

May 8: Narrowed deficit to 15-6 in the 9th inning

May 19: Gave the O’s a 1-0 lead in the 3rd inning

May 27: Gave the O’s a 1-0 lead in the 1st inning

June 5: Increased the O’s lead to 2-0 in the 1st inning

June 6: Broke a 0-0 tie in the 8th inning

June 7: Gave the O’s a 1-0 lead in the 1st inning

So, 7 of the 12 sac flies gave the O’s the lead; 3 others came when the game was within 1-2 runs.    There were only two sac flies that can be said to have occurred in “garbage time.”

The O’s have hit 7 sac flies in situations BB-ref deems “high leverage.”   That’s 7th in the AL, despite the fact that the O’s are dead last in the league in sac fly opportunities.

In short, we’re about average at hitting sac flies.     We’re about average, maybe a little better, at hitting them in high leverage situations.    Our big problem is that we aren’t generating enough sac fly opportunities, or RISP opportunities in general.

And yes, Roy, I intend to update this thread every single time we hit a sac fly.

 

o

 

If I remember correctly, your previous research found that the Orioles LED THE LEAGUE in getting runners home from 3rd base with less than 2 outs in 2017.

I know that this thread relates primarily to this (2018) season, but considering that Roy has been going on for much longer than that about the Orioles' inability to get sac-flies, I think that that is worth mentioning (if it is indeed true.)

 

o

[Frobby]

43 minutes ago, OFFNY said:

o

 

If I remember correctly, your previous research found that the Orioles LED THE LEAGUE in getting runners home from 3rd base with less than 2 outs in 2017.

I know that this thread relates primarily to this (2018) season, but considering that Roy has been going on for much longer than that about the Orioles' inability to get sac-flies, I think that that is worth mentioning (if it is indeed true.)

 

o

It’s true.   But this year, we’re the worst in the league at it.    43%, compared to 56% last year.    50% is league average this year.  

Why?   Nothing to do with sac flies or productive outs.   Last year we hit .343 with a runner on 3rd and less than two outs, this year we’re hitting .222 in those situations (going into today; it got worse).   

[Chavez Ravine]

This article looks at this from a historic perspective. 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scoring-and-not-scoring-the-runner-from-third/

Strikeout rates have been steadily growing since the '80s, but this hasn't diminished the overall success rate of scoring runs when there is a runner at third with less than two outs.  In fact, it's markedly better than the anomalous late '60s.  The author concludes that while players put more balls in play in the past,  most of those weren't any more effective at driving the runner home than a strikeout.

[OFFNY]

On 6/9/2018 at 6:01 PM, OFFNY said:

o

 

ROY FIRESTONE ))) ENOTSERIF YOR

 

o

o

 

 

(vs. NATIONALS, 6/20)

 

BACK-TO-BACK SAC FLIES !!! ll 

 

Manny Machado AND Danny Valencia BOTH hit Sac-Flies that began with a runner on 2nd base and 0 outs, in the top of the 6th inning.

 

Adam Jones advanced to 3rd base on Machado's Sac-Fly, then scored on Valencia's Sac-Fly, increasing the Orioles' lead to 3-0.

 

o

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, OFFNY said:

o

 

 

(vs. NATIONALS, 6/20)

 

BACK-TO-BACK SAC FLIES !!! ll 

 

Manny Machado AND Danny Valencia BOTH hit Sac-Flies that began with a runner on 2nd base and 0 outs, in the top of the 6th inning.

 

Adam Jones advanced to 3rd base on Machado's Sac-Fly, then scored on Valencia's Sac-Fly, increasing the Orioles' lead to 3-0.

 

o

There was a time, more than 80 years ago, when a fly ball that advanced a runner to 3rd base was considered a sac fly.   But that hadn’t been the rule for a very long time.    http://www.theoleballgame.com/when-was-the-sacrifice-fly-rule-changed-to-only-include-fly-balls-that-resulted-in-a-run-scoring.html

[Redskins Rick]

On 6/9/2018 at 5:11 PM, Can_of_corn said:

Nice job Sisyphus.

We dont need Sac Flies.

We need 3 run bombs!!!!

After all, we are the Orioles!!!

ROTFLMFAO

[Redskins Rick]

26 minutes ago, Frobby said:

There was a time, more than 80 years ago, when a fly ball that advanced a runner to 3rd base was considered a sac fly.   But that hadn’t been the rule for a very long time.    http://www.theoleballgame.com/when-was-the-sacrifice-fly-rule-changed-to-only-include-fly-balls-that-resulted-in-a-run-scoring.html

LOL

You are starting to sound like Drungo there.

[Moose Milligan]

16 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

LOL

You are starting to sound like Drungo there.

Where is @DrungoHazewood haven't seen him lately

[Redskins Rick]

5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Where is @DrungoHazewood haven't seen him lately

According to his profile, hasn't been on since May 12th.

[bobmc]

On 6/9/2018 at 5:07 PM, Frobby said:

This thread is dedicated to Roy’s belief that the Orioles are uniquely inept at getting sacrifice flies.    So far in 2018, the league hits a sac fly in 12.7% of the opportunities, and the O’s are at 13.0% after today.   

Roy’s second argument is that the O’s only hit sac flies when it’s meaningless.   So, I’ve been compelled to look up every sac fly we’ve had this year.

April 3: Narrowed deficit to 3-2 in the 4th inning

April 11: Increased lead to 3-1 in the 4th inning

April 13: Gave the O’s a 1-0 lead in the 1st inning

April 18: Broke a 2-2 tie in the 8th inning

May 2: Gave the O’s a 1-0 lead in the 1st inning

May 2: Narrowed deficit to 10-6 in the 9th inning

May 8: Narrowed deficit to 15-6 in the 9th inning

May 19: Gave the O’s a 1-0 lead in the 3rd inning

May 27: Gave the O’s a 1-0 lead in the 1st inning

June 5: Increased the O’s lead to 2-0 in the 1st inning

June 6: Broke a 0-0 tie in the 8th inning

June 7: Gave the O’s a 1-0 lead in the 1st inning

So, 7 of the 12 sac flies gave the O’s the lead; 3 others came when the game was within 1-2 runs.    There were only two sac flies that can be said to have occurred in “garbage time.”

The O’s have hit 7 sac flies in situations BB-ref deems “high leverage.”   That’s 7th in the AL, despite the fact that the O’s are dead last in the league in sac fly opportunities.

In short, we’re about average at hitting sac flies.     We’re about average, maybe a little better, at hitting them in high leverage situations.    Our big problem is that we aren’t generating enough sac fly opportunities, or RISP opportunities in general.

And yes, Roy, I intend to update this thread every single time we hit a sac fly.

 

 

 

 

 

LOL and great work but unfortunately, Roy is now an Angels fan and learning Japanese via Rosetta so that he can interview Shohei Ohtanisan.....

[Il BuonO]

5 hours ago, bobmc said:

LOL and great work but unfortunately, Roy is now an Angels fan and learning Japanese via Rosetta so that he can interview Shohei Ohtanisan.....

So, just in time to say sayonara playoffs.