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2019 Draft Order Tracker

bpilktree67

By bpilktree67
in Orioles Talk

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ExileAngelos All-Star

ExileAngelos

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6. Race for the bottom

In my latest run of simulations, Kansas City finished with an average of 52.9 wins. Baltimore was at 53.1. During the 162-game era, only nine teams have won fewer than 53 games in a non-strike season. Aren't we lucky to have two "contenders" in the same season? The stakes here aren't nothing. My takeaway from reading the draft pundits on next year's class is that prep shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. has a shot to be a particularly special top pick.

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/24334122/mlb-next-big-thing-red-sox-vs-116-more-races-watch

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Greg Pappas Hangout Grand Counsel

Greg Pappas

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7 hours ago, ExileAngelos said:

6. Race for the bottom

In my latest run of simulations, Kansas City finished with an average of 52.9 wins. Baltimore was at 53.1. During the 162-game era, only nine teams have won fewer than 53 games in a non-strike season. Aren't we lucky to have two "contenders" in the same season? The stakes here aren't nothing. My takeaway from reading the draft pundits on next year's class is that prep shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. has a shot to be a particularly special top pick.

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/24334122/mlb-next-big-thing-red-sox-vs-116-more-races-watch

Here is the thread I started that shares a number of articles, lists, podcasts, etc... that review the draft and it's top prospects>>> 

 

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Greg Pappas Hangout Grand Counsel

Greg Pappas

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35 minutes ago, ExileAngelos said:

So is there a clear number one in the draft?  Is this much ado about nothing?

No, there isn't a clear cut #1 guy at this point, but it's very early.  If we are choosing first, there will be some very good talent to choose from and historically the #1 pick outperforms all other picks. Plus, as Corn said, having the most slot money helps.

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Pretty sure it’s also our turn to have our comp balance pick be after the 1st round and not the 2nd round this year. 

Pretty sure the O's had two first round picks in 2018, even if they did use the second one to draft a guy that should have gone in the second, maybe third round.

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  • Posts

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      This is true. However, it is more situational in the post season. Guys are pitched to differently. You have to take what the game gives you. Home runs happen, but the best teams know when to take that shot and when to shorten up or be more line drive oriented. Home runs can be a surprise to good hitters who simply were in time and put a good swing on plane through the ball. It was a line drive that ran out of field. Hitters have to know who they are. Some sit on fast balls early in the count in a certain small box. If they get it, they take that A swing. Or maybe they sit off speed early. They may take a strike that is more of a pitcher’s pitch, or one they were not looking for. if you’re sitting fastball early, not a great idea to swing at a curveball. Or vice versa. Whatever the case, with two strikes, you have to think contact and productive at bat. For some, that approach may be sooner in the at bat, of the situation dictates it. There is no BABIP if there is not a ball in play. So luck plays no role in a strikeout. It seemed like the Orioles, as a whole, in 2024 were looking a certain pitch, and if the pitch was hittable they would hack. Even if it was just off the plate. Too many big swings, and tons of resulting misses, in key situations where shortening up a bit was the better approach. Lastly, not many of our guys are true “home run hitters.” What I mean by that is when Santander strikes out swinging at a piece ch with a big cut. I get it. That is his game to be focused on driving the ball. That is what he gets paid to do. Along with that comes a fair amount of swing and miss, and roll over ground balls. Not all our hitters should be having the same approach. Gunnar may hit 35-40 home runs in a season, but he is a much more dynamic hitter than just a “home run guy.” He is capable of doing anything on the field. He is extremely talented, and we have a few more that may fall into that category some day. There are times to adjust and take what the game gives you. Go oppo for a single, put pressure on the defense. This game is hard, but we can do better. If we are going to win, we must do much better.   

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