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Orioles to be more active in International Free Agent Market

NCRaven

By NCRaven
in Orioles Talk

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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14 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

Bolded part: No way. Underlined part: You say "baseline". That's his floor as a prospect. That is not the baseline probability of what his career will produce. The probability that he will produce one win in his career is not 1, it is less than 1. There's a decent chance that he doesn't produce one win (he gets hurt, he can't hit enough to make the majors for more than a cup of coffee, etc.). And the goal is to pay young players far less per win than you do free agents. The 8 - 10 million per win is not the goal with young players. If you want to pay 8 million for one win, then you sign Adam Jones in the offseason. You don't invest 15 to 20 million for the CHANCE to get a fourth outfielder in a few years. You are mixing a Fangraphs type analysis of the cost of WAR with financial reality associated with prospects. They are not the same thing. 

Dodgers spent 15.5M on Diaz and they had to pay a 100% tax on it for exceeding the soft cap.

Was Diaz more highly regarded than VVM?

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Malike Hangout Grand Counsel

Malike

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14 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

Huh? The money is not in some special bank account and MLB takes it away if you don't spend it. If the Orioles don't spend the money, then they don't reduce next year's operating budget by that amount. 

I didn't suggest that. I stated there are rules on how the money can be used. You seem to disagree. It's okay. If there are no rules, then they should take them all out of the CBA to make it less confusing to the idiots like myself who take things like rules pretty literally.

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TGO Hangout Grand Counsel

TGO

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40 minutes ago, Malike said:

That's not really true. They can't spend it on ML players from what I read in the CBA regarding the pool money.

The money is not MLB's money. The "pool" is just a cap on what you can spend on international FAs. If you don't spend it on international FAs, you (meaning the GM/personnel decision maker) either use it for something else or you give it back to the team's owners.

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Number5 Hangout Grand Counsel

Number5

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45 minutes ago, Malike said:

I didn't suggest that. I stated there are rules on how the money can be used. You seem to disagree. It's okay. If there are no rules, then they should take them all out of the CBA to make it less confusing to the idiots like myself who take things like rules pretty literally.

I think you are missing his point.  No matter how much a team has allotted in international spending, it isn't really money that they are given, it is the ability to spend said amount of money if they choose to do so.  The money that is spent comes out of the team's own budget, which they can choose to spend in another way, if they wish.  They can spend their own money however they want, but they cannot spend any more of it on international free agency than what their cap allows them to.

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Mondo Trasho Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Mondo Trasho

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Thinking about this further, I think it would have been better if they just dumped Gausman and O'day for nothing than trade them for international slot money. The time it took to scout the Mesa brothers or any other international player was time that could have been spent elsewhere if they had no intention on actually making a play here.  Get rid of O'day's and Gausman's salaries and move on.

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jsbearr Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

jsbearr

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1 hour ago, Ohfan67 said:

Bolded part: No way. Underlined part: You say "baseline". That's his floor as a prospect. That is not the baseline probability of what his career will produce. The probability that he will produce one win in his career is not 1, it is less than 1. There's a decent chance that he doesn't produce one win (he gets hurt, he can't hit enough to make the majors for more than a cup of coffee, etc.). And the goal is to pay young players far less per win than you do free agents. The 8 - 10 million per win is not the goal with young players. If you want to pay 8 million for one win, then you sign Adam Jones in the offseason. You don't invest 15 to 20 million for the CHANCE to get a fourth outfielder in a few years. You are mixing a Fangraphs type analysis of the cost of WAR with financial reality associated with prospects. They are not the same thing. 

No.

Several years back, I actually did this evaluation. It was how some organizations were trying to figure out where they should place their money.  That is an important question to answer if you were weighing the value between pushing overslots or international talent back then.

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Ohfan67 Hangout Grand Counsel

Ohfan67

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57 minutes ago, jsbearr said:

No.

Several years back, I actually did this evaluation. It was how some organizations were trying to figure out where they should place their money.  That is an important question to answer if you were weighing the value between pushing overslots or international talent back then.

If you spend 20 million dollars on a prospect who's realistic outcomes include fourth outfielder then you are doing a very poor job of spending your money. You want a prospect who is going to produce 20 million dollars worth of value, not cost 20 million dollars. I would love to see your "evaluation". 

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Ohfan67 Hangout Grand Counsel

Ohfan67

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2 hours ago, TGO said:

The money is not MLB's money. The "pool" is just a cap on what you can spend on international FAs. If you don't spend it on international FAs, you (meaning the GM/personnel decision maker) either use it for something else or you give it back to the team's owners.

The Orioles, very unfortunately, seemed to have used it to sign the Colby Rasmus' of the world. ?

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Ohfan67 Hangout Grand Counsel

Ohfan67

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2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Dodgers spent 15.5M on Diaz and they had to pay a 100% tax on it for exceeding the soft cap.

Was Diaz more highly regarded than VVM?

That was a very dumb move for the Dodgers. I guess they got Manny's 2.8 WAR for 15.5 m plus their portion of Manny's salary for that investment. I guess I should adjust my comment that no one would pay VVM 20 million. A few teams obviously have enough money to discount their financial "mistakes". But paying a young, good player for the WAR they earn is not the goal. The goal is to pay the league minimum for WAR while you can. 

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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1 minute ago, Ohfan67 said:

That was a very dumb move for the Dodgers. I guess they got Manny's 2.8 WAR for 15.5 m plus their portion of Manny's salary for that investment. I guess I should take back my comment that no one would pay VVM 20 million. A few teams obviously have enough money to discount their financial mistakes. But paying a young, good player for the WAR they earn is not the goal. The goal is to pay the league minimum for WAR while you can. 

When you can't spend more than X on the payroll and you can't spend more than Y on the draft you are going to find places to use your financial advantage.

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