How do you rate the return on the Britton trade?

[Tx Oriole]

16 hours ago, Frobby said:

Same drill as the Machado poll — using the terms from Greg Pappas’ expectations thread.   

Also, do you like Tate as the headliner better than having a deal with Moran as the headliner last year?    The poll was too complicated if I put that issue in there.   

I don't know. Trade one get three back. Have not heard a thing about the pitchers coming back.

[Ruzious]

14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Six years.

And that's only if you buy the warranty.  

[Bradysburns]

11 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

None of them have any MLB service time, so they all have the full contingent of options and team control. The control clock only starts when they are promoted to the majors.

Brilliant stuff.

[Tx Oriole]

15 hours ago, ISU94 said:

It's a depressing life to live.

I'm enjoying my life. If Atomic wants to feel the way he does more power to him. 

[Bradysburns]

23 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

Even with the influx of minors to the majors, they were still ranked #6 in MLB by baseball prospectus.

The Yankees under this generation of Steinbrenners... somewhat concerning. They seem to know what they're doing on all fronts again. Time for the Orioles to step it up and get some scouts down in the DR! 

[Redskins Rick]

2 minutes ago, Bradysburns said:

The Yankees under this generation of Steinbrenners... somewhat concerning. They seem to know what they're doing on all fronts again. Time for the Orioles to step it up and get some scouts down in the DR! 

It does help. that like Ky & Duke in NCAA Basketball, Penn State in NCAA Football, that they dont even have to recruit, or beg/lure prospects  to their organization, the name draws them in.

[pastorfan]

16 hours ago, hoosiers said:

I have to lean toward outstanding if the next option is solid.  Tate has very good stuff and profiles very strongly as a 3-5 SP who will be cheap for the next few years - a good building block.  I think Carroll has a very good chance to be one of the top 50 relief pitchers in baseball in the next two or three seasons.  And a flyer on, as Tony says, "a pitchability lefty." 

Return is being hailed as better than what KC and NYM received.  All this for about 65 games regular season (and some playoff) games for ZB.  Pretty strong, IMO.

Zach does not pitch in playoff games.

[Redskins Rick]

2 minutes ago, pastorfan said:

Zach does not pitch in playoff games.

He has 5 playoff saves from 2014.

[spiritof66]

31 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

Who cares?  Do you want to sell off an asset at or near peak value or don't you?  I advocated dealing guys like Davis and Wieters and Hardy around 2012 and 2013 and was mostly mocked - you can't do that, this team can win now, blah, blah, blah.  The Red Sox traded away fan favorite and starting shortstop Nomar Garciaparra in the middle of a pennant race.  It's only a matter of conviction of moving older or less young (and more injury prone) players moving to the wrong side of the salary/production cycle for quality prospects.

The A's constantly cycle and sell off assets for newer, younger ones as do the Rays.  

You know, when you sell off an asset at peak value that you get good, quality value back, right?  Maybe create one hole, but fix another in a better way.  I mean, don't make the trade if the talent received back isn't good enough.  We survived at the closer position just fine after dealing away Jim Johnson.  We will be just fine again in the closer position after dealing ZB.

I post here about once a year regarding the Bedard trade.  Folks love that trade for the excess talent received, but wouldn't do it again if the team was near competing.  I would.  Keep adding to the organizational talent base and good things happen.  

I tend to agree with the general approach you've outlined -- the devil arises in the details of which contributing players you trade when -- but three observations.

First, in my opinion there was not a chance in hell that the Orioles would trade valuable veterans in 2012-16 (and well into 2017). Throughout that period the owner, who turned 83 in 2012, was focused almost exclusively on the team the Orioles would put on the field that day and, maybe, a year or two in the future. He was not interested in having the team acquire players who would have value if it wasn't immediate or short-term.  Nor did he mind having guys who were far along on the salary/production cycle (if he even was aware of the concept) if there was a chance they might help get the Orioles to the World's Series. Throughout this period, the Orioles overfed the ML payroll with money they saved by skimping on the front office, scouting and international signings and development. I believe that's a large part of the reason the state of the Orioles is as bad as it is.

Second, even if following this strategy enables you to win more games, I'm not sure you can get to the post-season this way if you're in the AL East under the present structure of MLB. Unless the Red Sox and NYYs get a lot dumber or unlucky with injuries and sub-par performances, I think you have to accumulate talent in certain time pockets, or windows, even if it means retaining and overpaying some guys who are near or at their peak value and eating some of their salaries when you do get rid of them. 

Third, the Orioles' home field makes home runs and home run hitters, who tend as a general rule to be older and (I think) slower, to be more valuable, relative to other players, to the Orioles compared to other teams. That should tend to make the Orioles, compared to other teams,  place more value on players later in their careers and on big, slow guys who play  first base or corner OF positions or DH. This difference might be so small as to be insignificant as a practical matter. I don't know, and don't know how to go about measuring it.  

[Todd-O]

1 hour ago, hoosiers said:

Who cares?  Do you want to sell off an asset at or near peak value or don't you?  I advocated dealing guys like Davis and Wieters and Hardy around 2012 and 2013 and was mostly mocked - you can't do that, this team can win now, blah, blah, blah.  The Red Sox traded away fan favorite and starting shortstop Nomar Garciaparra in the middle of a pennant race.  It's only a matter of conviction of moving older or less young (and more injury prone) players moving to the wrong side of the salary/production cycle for quality prospects.

The A's constantly cycle and sell off assets for newer, younger ones as do the Rays.  

You know, when you sell off an asset at peak value that you get good, quality value back, right?  Maybe create one hole, but fix another in a better way.  I mean, don't make the trade if the talent received back isn't good enough.  We survived at the closer position just fine after dealing away Jim Johnson.  We will be just fine again in the closer position after dealing ZB.

I post here about once a year regarding the Bedard trade.  Folks love that trade for the excess talent received, but wouldn't do it again if the team was near competing.  I would.  Keep adding to the organizational talent base and good things happen.  

Thank goodness you aren't calling the shots in Baltimore.

They had 89 wins in 2016 and went toe to toe with an excellent Jays team.  There's no way you leave a season like that and trade a pitcher like Britton.  And no one knew that 2017 - injury or play wise - would turn out like it did.  The orioles did absolutely the right thing in trying to make one more push into 2017.

By your logic we should see the market flooded with controllable All Star caliber free agents every off season from teams that are expected to compete.  It doesn't typically happen - ever - especially with a commodity as valuable as a legit All Star closer.

 

[TonySoprano]

Segway rider Jim Bowden gives the Yankees an "A" and the Orioles a "B" on the trade.
 

Quote

The Yankees are following in the footsteps of teams like the 1990 Cincinnati Reds and the 2015 Kansas City Royals whose blueprint for their respective World Championships started with their dominant bullpens.

In order to acquire Britton, the Yankees parted with Dillon Tate, one of their top 12 overall prospects. They had acquired Tate in a deal with the Texas Rangers for Carlos Beltrán back in August of 2016. They also sent a couple of older pitchers that they weren’t planning on protecting in the upcoming Rule V draft in reliever Carroll and starter Rogers.

Quote

Tate has never lived up to being selected with the fourth overall pick in the June 2015 amateur draft, but he does have a high-90s fastball, and flashes an above-average slider and average change-up. It looks like he’s starting to turn the corner, although his ceiling is probably as a middle-of-the-rotation type starter.

Carroll was the second-best prospect coming back to the Orioles and he’ll bring a mid-90s fastball and a power spike curveball. His best role is probably as a sixth inning or situational reliever. Rogers is a crafty lefty who can trick hitters in the minors but will have a tough time being any more than a fifth starter in the majors.

However, when you consider the Royals set the market low with their bad deal for Herrera and the A’s made it worse on the giveaway of Familia, one must understand the Orioles did really well under the circumstances, which is why I gave them such a strong grade.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

3 minutes ago, Todd-O said:

Thank goodness you aren't calling the shots in Baltimore.

They had 89 wins in 2016 and went toe to toe with an excellent Jays team.  There's no way you leave a season like that and trade a pitcher like Britton.  And no one knew that 2017 - injury or play wise - would turn out like it did.  The orioles did absolutely the right thing in trying to make one more push into 2017.

By your logic we should see the market flooded with controllable All Star caliber free agents every off season from teams that are expected to compete.  It doesn't typically happen - ever - especially with a commodity as valuable as a legit All Star closer.

 

Key phrase - "expected to compete." 

The Orioles weren't even the third best team in the division going into 2017 and there was no chance they were going to re-sign Machado. Britton, as you astutely mentioned, was a very valuable commodity at the time... as I'm sure you also know, relief pitcher performance can fluctuate wildly YOY. 

For an organization that is not willing to spend with the two big markets in the division, they have to think outside the box a little bit. It's not always going to be the popular PR move. This organization gets way too wrapped up in that kind of stuff, historically.

[epic]

7 minutes ago, TonySoprano said:

Segway rider Jim Bowden gives the Yankees an "A" and the Orioles a "B" on the trade.

I'm not sure I understand how we can exceed the returns on the Herrera and Familia deals and do "really well considering the circumstances" but only get a B. His scouting report on Carroll also seems way off from everything I've read.

[Beef Supreme]

1 hour ago, Hank Scorpio said:

I get it... but 2016 ended thanks to Edwin Encarnacion. (And depending on your perspective, Buck.)

I'm not even talking about the trade deadline in 2017.... I'm talking about before spring training, baby. In the cold, cold January breeze. That was prime time. It was clear that offseason that they had no intention of keeping Manny and Britton was a closer coming off of an all time great season. They could have rebuilt the entire system with two deals.

But, really, that is not "prime time." Trade deadlines are "prime time." 

Also, like Roy has said elsewhere, you just don't know what you'll get when you trade for minor leaguers. There is no guarantee that the Orioles would have "rebuilt" the entire system with two deals. What is guaranteed is that the so-called "window" that extended through 2018 at that point in time, would have been slammed shut on the heels of a playoff appearance and a team that appeared poised to compete for another post-season appearance. 

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

Key phrase - "expected to compete." 

The Orioles weren't even the third best team in the division going into 2017 and there was no chance they were going to re-sign Machado. Britton, as you astutely mentioned, was a very valuable commodity at the time... as I'm sure you also know, relief pitcher performance can fluctuate wildly YOY. 

For an organization that is not willing to spend with the two big markets in the division, they have to think outside the box a little bit. It's not always going to be the popular PR move. This organization gets way too wrapped up in that kind of stuff, historically.

I think you’re applying some 20/20 hindsight.   Surely the Red Sox were a better team than us going into 2017, having finished 4 games ahead of us in 2016 and having picked up Chris Sale in the offseason.    It was not at all obvious that the Yankees or Blue Jays would be better.    The Yankees had traded away several veterans in 2016 and it was entirely possible that they’d take a step back in 2017 while waiting for their talent to ripen.   Absolutely nobody expected Aaron Judge, a .608 OPS hitter in 2016 who struck out 42 times in 95 plate appearances, to hit 52 bombs and post a 1.049 OPS.   And Toronto figured to take a step back (and did) after losing Encarnacion and with Bautista rapidly aging.     And while I’m sure the pundits were predicting us to be a sub-.500 team, that had been true every single year from 2012-16.    Our pitching was unforeseeably awful and yet we were still in the WC race until early September, when we suddenly went ice cold at the plate and collapsed.    None of that was foreordained in the 2016-17 offseason.     And teams that just made the playoffs don’t usually trade away the best players that got them there.