Orioles Top 50 Prospects - Midseason Edition...now including the Gausman/Schoop returns

[clapdiddy]

Great write-up, Luke!   Thanks for your contributions!

[RPIgator26]

Both Thorburn and Horvath have looked more like top 50 prospects than several of the OF you mentioned at the end of your summary. Thorburn is an on-base machine this season, and Horvath has hit for more power than most though possible from a #9 in the order hitter on a collegiate team. Defensively they make that side of the outfield far better than the Aberdeen pitching knows how to use (BB's seem an issue especially late in games) however both look more polished and capable as they cover up their defects while hitting with play that seems higher than their pretty modest round selection (Thorburn 31 in '17, Horvath 25 in '18). Since your listing included several that were admitted as highly speculative, either of these two...who do sort of stand out on average thus far in a large crowd of outfielders at Aberdeen thus far this season , would easily surpass that metric as being worthy of at least the speculative listing.

[glenn__davis]

15 minutes ago, RPIgator26 said:

Both Thorburn and Horvath have looked more like top 50 prospects than several of the OF you mentioned at the end of your summary. Thorburn is an on-base machine this season, and Horvath has hit for more power than most though possible from a #9 in the order hitter on a collegiate team. Defensively they make that side of the outfield far better than the Aberdeen pitching knows how to use (BB's seem an issue especially late in games) however both look more polished and capable as they cover up their defects while hitting with play that seems higher than their pretty modest round selection (Thorburn 31 in '17, Horvath 25 in '18). Since your listing included several that were admitted as highly speculative, either of these two...who do sort of stand out on average thus far in a large crowd of outfielders at Aberdeen thus far this season , would easily surpass that metric as being worthy of at least the speculative listing.

Where would you rank them on your top 50 list?  Who would you replace from Luke's?

[ScGO's]

Solid list.  Our depth is looking a lot better than it did coming into the season with the trades, draft,  and surprise development of some of our younger guys.  

Two questions for you.

1) Are you still planning on release a list of fringe prospects, guys who don't get talked about but maybe, maybe, if all goes right, and with a little luck, might crack an MLB roster one day?  I remember you talking about it earlier in the year.

and 2) To help me envision the depth of the system a little more.  Can you list the guys you considered for the last few spots of this top 50?  I'm hoping its 15-20 deep, no need for write ups, just want to see who just missed.

[ScGO's]

1 minute ago, ScGO's said:

Can you list the guys you considered for the last few spots of this top 50?

"guys who didn't make the list that just missed" would be a better way to communicate that.

[RPIgator26]

As far as outfielders go.... Sparks ranked so high seems just a bit inappropriate as there is no data this season at all for his play, and this is supposed to be a mid-2018 season re-evaluation based on updated facts over last evaluation. Labrum surgery takes that tool out of the mix until a successful return with proof, and in a data driven business like baseball has turned into, it only seems fair,  so that's one spot at the bottom of the 50 man pile I'd allocate to one of the current Aberdeen players I mentioned rather than to an injured prospect that really has to re-establish a track record ( and can be re-ranked in 2019 or at the end of this season if returning soon). As for mentioning Neustrom for the last spot on the list, head to head numbers compared to the other two, I'd go with either of the other two where the difference is their defense by a large margin - even assuming offense was even which numbers indicate it is not. These lists do reflect personal preference and mine is biased toward those two , especially given their collegiate successes. 

[Luke-OH]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

Luke, could you reiterate what the number grades mean, from 55 down to 40?

Good question. I go into detail about it in the article.

http://www.orioleshangout.com/2018/01/15/lukes-top-50-orioles-prospects-2018-primer-41-50/

The TLDR is

55 - above average position player/#3 SP/good closer

50 - average position player/#4 SP/good set-up man or decent closer

45 - starter on a lessor team or solid platoon player/#5 SP/7th inning type reliever

40 - bench bat or utility guy/spot starter-swingman/middle relief

35 - AAA depth, permanently on the Norfolk shuttle

A couple points, the grades seek to be median outcomes considering risk and distance to the majors. At each grade you have guys with a higher range of outcomes and guys that are near ready with a very low range of outcomes.

[Luke-OH]

9 hours ago, Diehard_O's_Fan said:

After all the trades, would the Orioles minor league system still be classified as poor or is it average or above average now? It sure seems like the Orioles had a great 2018 draft.

I didn’t think it was poor before the season, more in the 15-20 range and underrated. I think it’s close to top 10 now if not in it.

It lacks a player with the type of star upside to build around, which is why I think future trades should prioritize ceiling. 

[Luke-OH]

4 hours ago, LTO's said:

Is Drew Rom that low because of the lack of professional playing time? He was my favorite draft pick and seems like he's produced pretty well in the GCL.

Present stuff isn’t more than 4th/5th starter and he’s a long ways away which adds risk. I expect the stuff to get better, but until then it’s speculative.

[LookinUp]

8 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I didn’t think it was poor before the season, more in the 15-20 range and underrated. I think it’s close to top 10 now if not in it.

It lacks a player with the type of star upside to build around, which is why I think future trades should prioritize ceiling. 

If we get Victor Victor and a top 3 pick, you’ll get some of the high ceiling guys there. Hopefully we end up maximizing our slot allocation to get 2 high ceiling guys in the next draft.

[Luke-OH]

6 hours ago, 25 Nuggets said:

This is what I was wondering about.  Luke, where in your top 50 would you put the cutoff between prospects you think have a legit shot at sticking in the majors, and those you don't?

And of course, top notch work!

I think 50 you can expect them to at least get MLB action, with a solid shot at sticking and a few will surpass the average MLBer designation.

45 there is a good chance for at least a debut, but less chance of sticking. 

 

[Luke-OH]

4 hours ago, ZantiGM said:

muckenhirn ahead of kline and means?

how in the world can you rate rodriguez ahead of akin?

lowther is a stud

Muckenhirn and Kline are very similar players, this a similar grade. You could flip them and I wouldn’t argue. I went with Muck because he’s 3 years younger and left handed and has a better third pick.

Grayson Rodriguez is ahead of Akin because of the profile. Rodriguez has a better slider now at 18 than Akin has at 22. He’s got a better frame, a better FB, and a much higher ceiling. The risk is obviously higher too since he’s a ways away and has limited pro experience. But like I said in the article and I’ll say again, they have the same grade, as does Lowther, any ordering of the 50s is defensible. 

[DirtyBird]

3 hours ago, ZantiGM said:

sparks #25???????????  what could u possible base that on...sparks is #40-#50 until he shows something

Both bishop and alvarado are better then dietz

You should make a list.

[Thato'sfan]

3 hours ago, ZantiGM said:

sparks #25???????????  what could u possible base that on...sparks is #40-#50 until he shows something

Both bishop and alvarado are better then dietz

How are they better than Dietz and please don't say "Look at the stats"

Dietz has the best fastball, breaking ball, and changeup of the bunch. Dietz also has the highest ceiling and is also as young as Bishop. 

Also, Sparks has great raw tools. A 70 arm by many accounts, plus speed, above average raw power, and he showed an advanced approach last year in rookie ball. He could become a plus defender in center, with plus power. He is 25th, which by no means guarantees major league action. As @DirtyBird said, try making your own list. My guess is, it would favor stat lines too heavily.

[Luke-OH]

3 hours ago, ZantiGM said:

sparks #25???????????  what could u possible base that on...sparks is #40-#50 until he shows something

Both bishop and alvarado are better then dietz

This isn’t just a comment towards you and I appreciate the feedback, but why? If you think I ranked someone incorrectly, tell me why, and not just “well this guy is performing better”.

This is not a ranking of the top 50 Orioles minor league performers.

Tools are important, you can’t build a roster around 4th OF and utility guys. You need MLB quality tools.

I had DL Hall 5th this offseason which some didn’t like, look now. I was the only one who had McKenna in a top 30 before his breakout. Tools often lead to performance even if it’s not there yet.

Looking back at my previous rankings, if anything, I’ve placed too much weight on performance and not enough on tools.