Speed

[WarehouseChatter]

13 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

I find stolen bases very exciting. Very fun to watch. Unfortunately they are pretty useless. Case in point is the Orioles. They led the American League in stolen bases in 2007. Brian Roberts was tied for first and Patterson was second. That team was fast. The Orioles won 69 games. Orioles were top ten in MLB and third in AL in 2006. 70 wins. Years ago I believed the baseball lore that stolen bases were important and argued on here for that position...until I regressed winning versus stolen bases for several decades of MLB data and realized I was wrong. Earl was right about stolen bases. 

Not sure those teams were built in a way to take advantage of our SBs.  If built correctly, speed and OBP can definitely improve offensive performance.  If those speedy guys play great defense as well, then you’re really on to something.

[wildbillhiccup]

On 12/2/2018 at 9:20 PM, section18 said:

Just a follow up on Hale and winning every year. Has anyone seen the video clips of Billy Hamilton when he was still with the Reds? He usually goes from 1st to third on his steal attempt as most catchers rush their throws when he attempts to steal because he is so fast and they usually throw the ball into CF.  One of them shows him scoring on a steal of 2B. Villar was a step in the right direction adding his speed to the lineup along with Mullins.  Teams with speed guys are able to steal wins with their speed something that has never really happened here.  With the right blend of speed, guys with higher OBP's and power we can surprise a lot of  people and win more than you think.  Add Hamilton in spite of his low OBP  with great defense and speed and move Mullins to RF or LF. Jose Iglesias stole 15 last season. Add him at SS and leave Villar at 2B and we'll improve our defense and speed up the middle.  These are not major cost moves that could change the look of our team.

Care to provide some factual evidence to support the claim that he "usually" goes from 1st to third on his steal attempts? Also, until they come up with a way for him to steal first base (because he can't hit) Hamilton is basically a late inning defensive / runner replacement at this point in his career. He's the type of a piece an already good teams consider adding. He has no place on a last place team with an already crowded outfield. 

[Ohfan67]

1 hour ago, WarehouseChatter said:

Not sure those teams were built in a way to take advantage of our SBs.  If built correctly, speed and OBP can definitely improve offensive performance.  If those speedy guys play great defense as well, then you’re really on to something.

Stolen bases are very, very, very weakly correlated with wins when you use data from MLB. OBP, for example, is much more important. Signing Billy Hamilton to get some stolen bases would be a pretty insignificant move in terms of wins, for example. And yes great defense is wonderful, etc., but being able to steal bases is not always correlated with great defense. Again, I enjoy stolen bases and would love to have multiple players who can steal bases...but only if they get on base, play good defense, etc. Stolen bases are worth far less than other offensive skills. 

[esmd]

On 12/2/2018 at 10:57 AM, Rene88 said:

Lou Brown on the short list?

https://youtu.be/vBBbrYpeqZY

I'll get back to ya Charlie!

[Sessh]

I like steals, too. The thing is a bad team that steals a lot of bases is still a bad team because a bad team's offense struggles to translate it into runs often enough. A good team with a good offense that can add stolen bases into the equation should get far more benefit from them since their offense hits enough to score those runs from second base. Steals only work if the offense is of a certain quality. A team like the Orioles who are last in BA and OBP aren't going to see too many of those steals cross the plate. They make good offenses better and do nothing for bad ones.

Of course, I have no stats to back that up, but that is why I don't buy that steals are always a non-factor in winning. It depends on the team and the overall quality of the offense in the ways that really matter such as OBP,  wRC+ and so on. For bad offensive teams, I agree that it's a non-factor though it does make watching a losing team more exciting. I'm not as confident in saying that about good offensive teams. If steals don't translate into runs for your team, it's because the guys in the lineup behind those steals don't produce often enough. I don't think that means steals are useless, but their effectiveness is largely determined by the quality of the rest of the offense IMO.

I'm all for building a team that can take advantage of steals. It's definitely exciting especially if it leads to a World Series. A team that is built well enough to turn base stealing into run production is a much better team than one based heavily around power. I am excited to see what Mike Elias does which is, by the way, a hire that I am resoundingly happy about. The A brothers have earned some slack with me. I think they made the right decision and it was a big decision with huge ramifications. I think they got it right. I'm glad.

[weams]

9 hours ago, Sessh said:

 

Of course, I have no stats to back that up, but that is why I don't buy that steals are always a non-factor in winning.

...

. I don't think that means steals are useless, but their effectiveness is largely determined by the quality of the rest of the offense IMO.

...

I'm all for building a team that can take advantage of steals. It's definitely exciting especially if it leads to a World Series. 

You are entitled to your opinion. Data indicates that steals mean very little. Speed can help with defense, arm strength does as well. 

[Frobby]

Last year the best baserunning team was +10 runs, the worst was -17.    In terms of just base stealing (as opposed to taking extra bases, etc.), the range was from +5 to -6.    So, speed on the basepaths might be worth 3 wins between the best and worst teams, pure base stealing might be worth 1 win.   Then, as you point out, speed will help on defense, too.

I’ll leave it to others to decide if these numbers suggest steals/baserunning is important/unimportant.   

Source: https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=2556781

[weams]

57 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Last year the best baserunning team was +10 runs, the worst was -17.    In terms of just base stealing (as opposed to taking extra bases, etc.), the range was from +5 to -6.    So, speed on the basepaths might be worth 3 wins between the best and worst teams, pure base stealing might be worth 1 win.   Then, as you point out, speed will help on defense, too.

I’ll leave it to others to decide if these numbers suggest steals/baserunning is important/unimportant.   

Source: https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=2556781

It's obvious that it is not and you are gracious in leaving that conclusion to the reader. 

[Frobby]

Just now, weams said:

It's obvious that it is not and you are gracious in leaving that conclusion to the reader. 

Well, “important” is one of those subjective words.    There are certainly many aspects of offense that are more important than base stealing.   That is crystal clear from the numbers.   

[Ohfan67]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Last year the best baserunning team was +10 runs, the worst was -17.    In terms of just base stealing (as opposed to taking extra bases, etc.), the range was from +5 to -6.    So, speed on the basepaths might be worth 3 wins between the best and worst teams, pure base stealing might be worth 1 win.   Then, as you point out, speed will help on defense, too.

I’ll leave it to others to decide if these numbers suggest steals/baserunning is important/unimportant.   

Source: https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=2556781

Unless I’m really missing something, That’s not analysis to back up your assumptions. You have to conduct something like a multiple regression that includes other variables to parse our an estimate of the effect of stolen bases. 

P.s. maybe they did that, but I can’t tell. 

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Ohfan67 said:

Unless I’m really missing something, That’s not analysis to back up your assumptions. You have to conduct something like a multiple regression that includes other variables to parse our an estimate of the effect of stolen bases. 

I’m not making assumptions, I’m just quoting statistics from Baseball Prosoectus.   I didn’t calculate them.     

The average value of a stolen base, in terms of leading to an increase in runs, is pretty much known.    The decrease in runs created by a caught stealing is also known.    The values change depending on whether the steal is of 2nd, 3rd or home, who else is on base, and how many outs there are.   You’d have to factor all that in to come up with an estimate of runs added/lost.     That is what BP does.

[weams]

56 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, “important” is one of those subjective words.    There are certainly many aspects of offense that are more important than base stealing.   That is crystal clear from the numbers.   

The game changed. Ty Cobb and his sharp spikes aren't coming to save it. 

[weams]

Just now, Frobby said:

I’m not making assumptions, I’m just quoting statistics from Baseball Prosoectus.   I didn’t calculate them.     

The average value of a stolen base, in terms of leading to an increase in runs, is pretty much known.    The decrease in runs created by a caught stealing is also known.    The values change depending on whether the steal is of 2nd, 3rd or home, who else is on base, and how many outs there are.   You’d have to factor all that in to come up with an estimate of runs added/lost.     That is what BP does.

I am relatively certain that this is resolved science on all counts. It just needs to be brought back up everytime that folks want to look to a different style of baseball that might be successful. These guys in data are way ahead of us. 

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, weams said:

The game changed. Ty Cobb and his sharp spikes aren't coming to save it. 

Let’s say you have two teams.   One never steals.    The other attempts one steal a game and succeeds 70% of the time.    Both those teams are going to be at zero in base stealing runs, but personally I’d rather watch the team that attempts the steals, assuming everything else is equal. It’s more fun.  

[Ohfan67]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I’m not making assumptions, I’m just quoting statistics from Baseball Prosoectus.   I didn’t calculate them.     

The average value of a stolen base, in terms of leading to an increase in runs, is pretty much known.    The decrease in runs created by a caught stealing is also known.    The values change depending on whether the steal is of 2nd, 3rd or home, who else is on base, and how many outs there are.   You’d have to factor all that in to come up with an estimate of runs added/lost.     That is what BP does.

I analyzed the effects of stolen bases on wins using several decades of data. That is different than estimating runs and because I focussed on wins the analysis actually included a lot of the factors that folks have tossed around in this discussion (a hypothesized defensive benefit, for example). The effect of stolen bases was tiny, especially relevant to other offensive stats. So much so that it would be folly to target a player for acquisition because they steal bases. And we have all seen players that provide specific examples...players who are good defenders and pretty fast, but who don't steal bases and vice versa. I would love to have a team of super fast, super athletic players who stole a ton of bases, but stolen bases by themselves are not very important.