TT: Mullins defense (Orioles outfield defense as well)

[Tony-OH]

Cedric Mullins has almost 30 games in the major leagues now in center field and safe to say the early results have not been what many thought he would do defensively.

Watching so far I've been a  little concerned from a scouting standpoint of not taking great routes and getting squeamish near walls or potential collisions with other players. When you add in a below average center fielder arm (not Johnny Damon awful, but clearly below average), I'm starting to wonder whether left field might be a better fit for him in the major leagues, especially Camden Yards where a speedy left fielder can be a real plus.

To back up what my eyes where telling me, I looked up his stats and was actually surprised his dWAR was -0.6. -0.6 over just 29 games is actually pretty awful. I've always been a bit skeptical of dWAR for outfielders so I went over to baseballsavant and looked up his outs above average (OAA) in their catch probability stats. in case you are unaware, OAA is the cumulative effect of all individual Catch Probability plays a fielder has been credited or debited with, making it a range-based metric of fielding skill that accounts for the number of plays made and the difficulty of them. For example, a fielder who catches a 25% Catch Probability play gets +.75; one who fails to make the play gets -.25. Read more about how Outs Above Average works here. 

Not surprising the Orioles outfielders were not good but here they are ranked by OAA:

Joey Rickard: 4
Craig Gentry: 3
John Andreoli: 2
Peterson: 1
Valencia: -2
Mullins: -2
Trumbo: -4
Mancini: -10
Jones: -12

BTW, of the 289 outfielders tracked in MLB, Mancini was 283rd and Jones 285th. Kind of explains how bad the outfield defense has been for most of the year.

Lets get back to Mullins. So far Mullins has caught everything he should catch (1-2-star catches) going 11-for-11, but he only went 2-for-4 in 3-star catches (51%-75% catch probability), 0-for two in 4-star catches (26-50%) and 0-for-10 in spectacular 5-star catches (25% and below).

Now some outfielders have an adjustment period in the major leagues since they don't normally play in stadium with upper decks, but I would see the eye test is backed up by the stats the results are not what we hoped for a guy billed a defense and speed guy first.

Now there are three other metrics that tries to put playing time into perspective since OAA can certainly be affected by playing time. 

Expected Catch Percentage (%)          Actual Catch Percentage (%)              Catch Percentage Added (%)

Mullins had an 84% ECP                                   83 ACP                                                      -1 CPA

That -1 put him tied for 136th out of 250 in the rankings.

Not surprising, Mark Trumbo's -11% CPA was worse of any Orioles outfield and 238 out o 250.
Valencia (-6 CPA) was next at tied for 224th out of 250 while Mancini's -5 CPA was tied for 210th out of 250 (In other words, he need to play 1B or DH).
Jones was at -3 putting him tied for 178th out of 250. 
John Andreoli (maybe this is why they are playing him so much) leads Orioles outfielders at 5 CPA (Tied for 14th out of 250). Gentry 4  CPA(t-23rd) and Rickard 3 CPA (t-36th) were the other Orioles playing above average defense in the outfield this year. 

The hope of course is the the Orioles will sign Victor Victor Mesa who by all reports is a plus-plus defender in center field. This would enable Mullins to move to left though the he could have competition from Yusniel Diaz or Austin Hays at some point. 

Mullins has found a way to improve every year so there's certainly optimism that Mullins is just going through an adjustment phase. He was certainly an upgrade to Adam Jones regardless, but maybe not as much as the Orioles may have liked.

One last thing, since Mullins' sprint speed of 29.3 ft/sec is tied for 28th in all of baseball, it certainly is not a lack of foot speed which makes it more of a jump/route/tentativeness thing. Jones on the other hand had a 26.7 (Caleb Joseph is at 26.4) made him the slowest CF recorded this season.

[ChrisP]

Very interesting post. I had no idea Mullins defense has been questionable. 

[OriolesMagic83]

I'm not an expert on defense or defensive metrics, but he seems sort of tentative out there.  I feel like he would rather make the safe play and catch the questionable play on the bounce.  I'm sure he doesn't want to look bad out there, but the whole reason for having him in center is to use his superior range compared to Jones.

[Frobby]

I’m hoping it’s just an adjustment phase for him.  

[TGO]

40 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m hoping it’s just an adjustment phase for him.  

Me too. Bigger (taller) stadiums, different lighting, figuring out how where the walls are, etc.

[NCRaven]

59 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Cedric Mullins has almost 30 games in the major leagues now in center field...

30 games.  Think we need to give him more time.  Defensive metrics take far longer to stabilize that offensive ones.

[Aristotelian]

I have not watched lately, but I have seen a few balls where he looked tentative, perhaps still getting used to CY as well as new teammates. I also think perhaps Mancini isn't used to having someone who can get to balls in the gaps that would normally be his.

My eye test says his speed alone makes him a massive improvement over Jones at catching the ball. I have no idea if his overall defense will allow him to stick in center, or even if his bat will allow him to stick in MLB at all. One thing is for sure, he is fast.

[baltfan]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Cedric Mullins has almost 30 games in the major leagues now in center field and safe to say the early results have not been what many thought he would do defensively.

Watching so far I've been a  little concerned from a scouting standpoint of not taking great routes and getting squeamish near walls or potential collisions with other players. When you add in a below average center fielder arm (not Johnny Damon awful, but clearly below average), I'm starting to wonder whether left field might be a better fit for him in the major leagues, especially Camden Yards where a speedy left fielder can be a real plus.

To back up what my eyes where telling me, I looked up his stats and was actually surprised his dWAR was -0.6. -0.6 over just 29 games is actually pretty awful. I've always been a bit skeptical of dWAR for outfielders so I went over to baseballsavant and looked up his outs above average (OAA) in their catch probability stats. in case you are unaware, OAA is the cumulative effect of all individual Catch Probability plays a fielder has been credited or debited with, making it a range-based metric of fielding skill that accounts for the number of plays made and the difficulty of them. For example, a fielder who catches a 25% Catch Probability play gets +.75; one who fails to make the play gets -.25. Read more about how Outs Above Average works here. 

Not surprising the Orioles outfielders were not good but here they are ranked by OAA:

Joey Rickard: 4
Craig Gentry: 3
John Andreoli: 2
Peterson: 1
Valencia: -2
Mullins: -2
Trumbo: -4
Mancini: -10
Jones: -12

BTW, of the 289 outfielders tracked in MLB, Mancini was 283rd and Jones 285th. Kind of explains how bad the outfield defense has been for most of the year.

Lets get back to Mullins. So far Mullins has caught everything he should catch (1-2-star catches) going 11-for-11, but he only went 2-for-4 in 3-star catches (51%-75% catch probability), 0-for two in 4-star catches (26-50%) and 0-for-10 in spectacular 5-star catches (25% and below).

Now some outfielders have an adjustment period in the major leagues since they don't normally play in stadium with upper decks, but I would see the eye test is backed up by the stats the results are not what we hoped for a guy billed a defense and speed guy first.

Now there are three other metrics that tries to put playing time into perspective since OAA can certainly be affected by playing time. 

Expected Catch Percentage (%)          Actual Catch Percentage (%)              Catch Percentage Added (%)

Mullins had an 84% ECP                                   83 ACP                                                      -1 CPA

That -1 put him tied for 136th out of 250 in the rankings.

Not surprising, Mark Trumbo's -11% CPA was worse of any Orioles outfield and 238 out o 250.
Valencia (-6 CPA) was next at tied for 224th out of 250 while Mancini's -5 CPA was tied for 210th out of 250 (In other words, he need to play 1B or DH).
Jones was at -3 putting him tied for 178th out of 250. 
John Andreoli (maybe this is why they are playing him so much) leads Orioles outfielders at 5 CPA (Tied for 14th out of 250). Gentry 4  CPA(t-23rd) and Rickard 3 CPA (t-36th) were the other Orioles playing above average defense in the outfield this year. 

The hope of course is the the Orioles will sign Victor Victor Mesa who by all reports is a plus-plus defender in center field. This would enable Mullins to move to left though the he could have competition from Yusniel Diaz or Austin Hays at some point. 

Mullins has found a way to improve every year so there's certainly optimism that Mullins is just going through an adjustment phase. He was certainly an upgrade to Adam Jones regardless, but maybe not as much as the Orioles may have liked.

One last thing, since Mullins' sprint speed of 29.3 ft/sec is tied for 28th in all of baseball, it certainly is not a lack of foot speed which makes it more of a jump/route/tentativeness thing. Jones on the other hand had a 26.7 (Caleb Joseph is at 26.4) made him the slowest CF recorded this season.

This is interesting.  I gather the catch he made where he went over the wall was a 3 star catch then?

[Tony-OH]

15 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I have not watched lately, but I have seen a few balls where he looked tentative, perhaps still getting used to CY as well as new teammates. I also think perhaps Mancini isn't used to having someone who can get to balls in the gaps that would normally be his.

My eye test says his speed alone makes him a massive improvement over Jones at catching the ball. I have no idea if his overall defense will allow him to stick in center, or even if his bat will allow him to stick in MLB at all. One thing is for sure, he is fast.

Jones was the only player to player centerfield on any regular basis in the major leagues with below average foot speed. He was long overdue to move out of center so Mullins is certainly an improvement.

[Tony-OH]

1 minute ago, baltfan said:

This is interesting.  I gather the catch he made where he went over the wall was a 3 star catch then?

Apparently. I just find the stats to be interesting and something to watch. Like I said in the original post, a lot of outfielders need some time to adjust, but one thing of note is that I've heard from a scout before that he  thought he would be better in left than center, but that was mainly over the arm concerns. 

Mullins is going to get a chance everyday to play there next year so we'll have a better idea after next season. Overall I would say he's average to slightly below average in CF but also believe he has room to get better.

[Legend_Of_Joey]

So this says that Rickard is their best outfielder?

[baltfan]

37 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Apparently. I just find the stats to be interesting and something to watch. Like I said in the original post, a lot of outfielders need some time to adjust, but one thing of note is that I've heard from a scout before that he  thought he would be better in left than center, but that was mainly over the arm concerns. 

Mullins is going to get a chance everyday to play there next year so we'll have a better idea after next season. Overall I would say he's average to slightly below average in CF but also believe he has room to get better.

Wasn’t criticizing.  Think fielding numbers like these are always interesting.  Obviously we can’t remember all of his hard chances but it is interesting to know how they score a specific play that I actually can remember.  

I would love to see an actual database of each play.  

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

So this says that Rickard is their best outfielder?

A sample size of less than half a season doesn't say much.

[Tx Oriole]

2 hours ago, ChrisP said:

Very interesting post. I had no idea Mullins defense has been questionable. 

Nor had I.

[Ohfan67]

44 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

A sample size of less than half a season doesn't say much.

Although the OF was so bad that Rickard is better than most of them.