How Long is the Road to Contention?

[WarehouseChatter]

With a 42-105 record entering play tonight, the answer from some of you may be "never".  Poor record, lack of leadership, and questions about the Orioles longevity may cloud the picture.  That said, IF the Orioles:

• Land the Mesa brothers
• Draft a very solid contributor with the #1 pick (say Bobby Witt Jr.) 
• Get solid draft returns beyond the #1 pick (including in 2019 and 2020 when we're still going to be drafting high)
• See 1-2 players out of a group that includes Mullins, Mountcastle, Hays and Diaz develop into solid MLB contributors
• And, most importantly, see Bundy return to early season form, and have 2 of the pitchers in their farm system turn into a 2-3 in the rotation (a group that includes Hall, Rodriguez, Harvey, Akin and Lowther)

Does that get us close?  Of course, if once the team forms an identity, we would add some free agents to finish the puzzle.  Some will pounce on me for suggesting that the above will happen.  But it could.  Let's dream a bit.

I look back at the 2012 team.  Guys like Robert Andino, Lew Ford, Ryan Flaherty, Nate McLouth and Mark Reynolds along with pitchers like Wei-Yin Chen, Jason Hammel and Joe Saunders got us to 90+ wins and an ALDS.  Maybe there were some smoke and mirrors going on, but we built on that and nearly had a World Series team in 2014.  

I'm just saying, I think our farm system has improved.  We have to get back to a winning culture.  Maybe the Angelos sons and either DD or a new GM (and certainly a new manager) can help create that culture.  There is no reason we can't contend again by 2021-22.  

I'll keep my head up.  Call me crazy.  Have at it.....

[Can_of_corn]

 

[Greg Pappas]

I started a similar thread recently.

 

[TonySoprano]

It's long
and winding

 

[bobmc]

22 minutes ago, TonySoprano said:

It's long
and winding

 

And we usually take the one "less traveled".

[bobmc]

24 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

I started a similar thread recently.

 

So about 2022 or 3?  

[LookitsPuck]

I'd put the earliest at 2022 or 2023 barring some complete and utter miracle.

[tntoriole]

2 hours ago, bobmc said:

And we usually take the one "less traveled".

It is usually "less traveled" by most teams because the Os path goes off a cliff into a ditch.  

[clapdiddy]

They are going to have to do a tremendous job of drafting and developing over the next few years to have a winning team by 2022.    I'm not sure this team is capable of that...especially the "developing" part.

[SteveA]

A lot depends on how good some pitchers already in our minor league system turn out to be.   In no particular order Harvey, Akin, Ortiz,, Kremer, Lowther, Hall, Baumann, Wells, Sedlock.   That's 9 guys.   How many of them are major league contributors by 2022/23?   Of those, how many are #1 quality, if any at all?   

Bring out your crystal ball and answer those questions and then you can BEGIN to tell if this team can contend in 2022 & 2023.

Anything before that seems unlikely but we have seen teams make the jump a year before they were expected to.   Maybe the next Miles Mikolas signs with the Orioles and their aggressive new young GM.

[Greg Pappas]

29 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

They are going to have to do a tremendous job of drafting and developing over the next few years to have a winning team by 2022.    I'm not sure this team is capable of that...especially the "developing" part.

I hear ya... but a winning team only means breaking over .500.  I'm not expecting it, but can see us going 82-80 by then. Being a contender is another thing altogether. 

[ChuckS]

At this moment it is infinite IMO.

We neither have the talent in the organization right now at any level or the financial resources to make contending a possibility the next three years.

We have plenty of potential complimentary pieces but the next two drafts and international signings will determine if we can contend again in the next five years. More top end talent is needed. I see a bunch of potential regulars and 3-5 starters but not a lot of potential stars that winning teams need. I’m writing off 19-21. In a best case scenario 21 is a .500 season and we start winning again in 22. 

[El Gordo]

[wildcard]

There is probably a years difference between having a winning record and contending.

[DrungoHazewood]

I think it's possible it'll be 4-5 years until they're a good team again. 

But then again we thought the same thing in '88, and '11.  Does Gordo remember what the consensus was in '54?  That's was pretty comparable.  Baseline of 50-some wins a year and no farm system to speak of.  Got to .500 in '57, slid back the next few years, 89 and 95 wins in '60 and '61, World Series in '66.