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Buck and Dan's home run strategy did not help the O's

wildcard

By wildcard
in Orioles Talk

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theocean Major Leaguer

theocean

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23 hours ago, wildcard said:

Many times over their tenure with the O's Dan and Buck expressed the strategy that building their offense around home runs was the right way to win with a home park of Camden Yards.  Looking back that startegy  seems to not have worked for them the way they planned.

2012,   2nd in homers in the AL but  9th in runs

2013,  1st in homers, 4th in runs

2014,  1st in homers, 6th in runs

2015, 3rd in homers, 7th in runs

2016,  1st in homers, 7th in runs

2017,  5th in homers,  8th in runs

2018, 9th in homers,  15th in runs

There are 5 playoff teams in the AL every year.  So the O's should plan to be at least 5th or better in runs.   That happened once  in the 7 years that Buck and Dan were together with the O's.   Maybe going forward the offensive strategy should be different.

The home run approach worked. Moneyball originally focused on OBP and the league shifted that way. The second iteration of it, in my opinion, was home runs. Billy Beane did the same thing with the 2012-2014 Athletics - he tried to find hitters who hit a lot of fly balls because that is fewer double plays, more sacrifice flies, and sometimes those fly balls become home runs:

https://deadspin.com/a-decade-after-moneyball-have-the-as-found-a-new-mark-1489963694

The O's did the same thing. But, it didn't really work in the playoffs - just like the Athletics never get it done in the playoffs. The O's offensively were always boom-or-bust, home run rally or nothing. When facing every playoff team's best pitchers, it gets really hard to hit home runs.

So, in my opinion, Duquette's biggest sin is that he could never find a high OBP guy to put atop a lineup - or at least, a hitter who could work an at-bat and get on base with consistency in the playoffs. They had Markakis, who filled that role, but he was let go.

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atomic Hangout Grand Counsel

atomic

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On 10/5/2018 at 2:42 PM, Redskins Rick said:

Lets slam Buck and DD, one more time, with one more thread.

If I remember right, the 3 run HR was a part of Oriole Magic, back before Oriole Magic, and the Earl of Weave time here.

Those teams didn't have .298 OBP.  Hard to get a 3 home run when no one is on base. 

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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I think as all is said and done we can stop using the "Buck and Dan."  They both worked here. They both did things. They had different rolls. I think their differences led to them both being gone. We can credit them both for the accomplishments of the last 8 years,  I do not believe there was too much synergy. 

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BohKnowsBmore Hangout Grand Counsel

BohKnowsBmore

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On 10/5/2018 at 2:48 PM, Spy Fox said:

It worked for a few years. The elite power is what allowed them to have a respectable offense in 2012-2016 despite the bad OBP.

But then the fly ball revolution happened and the rest of the league caught up to us in the power department, all while we were trotting out the most of the same sluggers, just older. 

I think in a way we were a few years ahead of the curve on this one. But we didn't adapt or move on when things changed. 

Well said.  Our HR heavy strategy has been mocked frequently (both here and in the baseball world), yet it seems that the league as a whole has gravitated toward selling out for more homers.

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BohKnowsBmore Hangout Grand Counsel

BohKnowsBmore

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On 10/6/2018 at 1:27 PM, theocean said:

The home run approach worked. Moneyball originally focused on OBP and the league shifted that way. The second iteration of it, in my opinion, was home runs. Billy Beane did the same thing with the 2012-2014 Athletics - he tried to find hitters who hit a lot of fly balls because that is fewer double plays, more sacrifice flies, and sometimes those fly balls become home runs:

https://deadspin.com/a-decade-after-moneyball-have-the-as-found-a-new-mark-1489963694

The O's did the same thing. But, it didn't really work in the playoffs - just like the Athletics never get it done in the playoffs. The O's offensively were always boom-or-bust, home run rally or nothing. When facing every playoff team's best pitchers, it gets really hard to hit home runs.

So, in my opinion, Duquette's biggest sin is that he could never find a high OBP guy to put atop a lineup - or at least, a hitter who could work an at-bat and get on base with consistency in the playoffs. They had Markakis, who filled that role, but he was let go.

Many people don't understand, or fail to grasp, that moneyball wasn't really about OBP.  It's about undervalued skillsets and assets.  By the the early 2010s, OBP was well-priced and well-compensated.  Things like power and defense were relatively cheap w/r/t how they contributed to winning.

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BohKnowsBmore Hangout Grand Counsel

BohKnowsBmore

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On 10/5/2018 at 5:28 PM, wildbillhiccup said:

They most certainly did not. Again, you don't sign someone just for the sake of signing him. Especially someone as terrible as Cashner. The only thing worse would have been inking Vargas to a multi-year deal. They should have done their homework and directed that money at the Tyson Ross types that were available. Mikolas would have been a great signing too, in hindsight. The Cardinals clearly did their homework on him. 

This is pure hindsight...

Yes, they should have known that the guy who had a 7.71 ERA and 1.837 WHIP in 2017 would rebound in 2018.

Also, Cashner and Ross are basically the same from a WAR perspective (0.6 vs. 0.7 rWAR; 0.5 vs. 1.0 fWAR).

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wildbillhiccup Hangout Grand Counsel

wildbillhiccup

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13 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

This is pure hindsight...

Yes, they should have known that the guy who had a 7.71 ERA and 1.837 WHIP in 2017 would rebound in 2018.

Also, Cashner and Ross are basically the same from a WAR perspective (0.6 vs. 0.7 rWAR; 0.5 vs. 1.0 fWAR).

...but Ross was A LOT cheaper. The point I was making is that they should have known Cashner was going to suck. All the numbers pointed to it, yet they gave him a multi-year deal. 

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