2014 Astros article tells what is going to happen with the O's and why

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

I understand where you're coming from, inclined to agree.  However when it comes to the O's system I've been conditioned to expect the worst.

The beatings will continue until morale improves, etc.

It’s amazing how often we have been disappointed.    Some of that is par for the course, I suppose — top prospects frequently don’t  turn into premium players, no matter what the organization.   But we definitely have had more than our share of low yields.   

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

It’s amazing how often we have been disappointed.    Some of that is par for the course, I suppose — top prospects frequently don’t  turn into premium players, no matter what the organization.   But we definitely have had more than our share of low yields.   

Agreed.  I'd like to see if it's as bad as we think it is compared to other teams.  That'd be a massive undertaking but I can't help but think our low yield rate doesn't match up to others.  

[Frobby]

16 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Agreed.  I'd like to see if it's as bad as we think it is compared to other teams.  That'd be a massive undertaking but I can't help but think our low yield rate doesn't match up to others.  

This is at least partially relevant.   It includes a comparison of the Orioles’ draft yield from 2000-16 with the other AL East teams.   

 

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think our system is terrible right now.    The depth is actually pretty decent, it just lacks star power close to the majors.    

I think the most underrated potential value of the Elias/Mejdal hires will be changes in how we develop the players already in our system.    It will be interesting to see whether some players who aren’t that highly regarded today make significant progress under the new regime.   We’ll see.

Four of the O's top 6 prospects as ranked by Tony  are close to the majors.   3 of those have been on BA's top 100 prospect list. 

Hays - #21 BA prospect pre-2018; 960 OPS in 2017 at AA Bowie

Diaz - #73 BA prospect  pre-2018: 905 OPS in 2018 at AA Tulsa

Mountcastle - #71 BA prospect pre -2018; 806 OPS in 2018 at AA  Bowie

Kremer- 5-2, 2.24 ERA in 9 starts, 1.166 WHIP in 2018 at Bowie and Tulsa

 

[wildbillhiccup]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think our system is terrible right now.    The depth is actually pretty decent, it just lacks star power close to the majors.    

I think the most underrated potential value of the Elias/Mejdal hires will be changes in how we develop the players already in our system.    It will be interesting to see whether some players who aren’t that highly regarded today make significant progress under the new regime.   We’ll see.

I don't think so either. What we're missing is true top tier prospect, but Rutschman or Witt should fill that void after the draft. I just wish some of our existing prospects were at least average defensively. Sisco, Mountcastle and to a lesser extent Stewart all have serious defensive concerns. I hope that's an area of emphasis as we look to improve / restock our farm system going forward. 

[Frobby]

23 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Four of the O's top 6 prospects as ranked by Tony  are close to the majors.   3 of those have been on BA's top 100 prospect list. 

Hays - #21 BA prospect pre-2018; 960 OPS in 2017 at AA Bowie

Diaz - #73 BA prospect  pre-2018: 905 OPS in 2018 at AA Tulsa

Mountcastle - #71 BA prospect pre -2018; 806 OPS in 2018 at AA  Bowie

Kremer- 5-2, 2.24 ERA in 9 starts, 1.166 WHIP in 2018 at Bowie and Tulsa

 

I agree all four of those guys are close to the majors.   None of them really project as a future star.  Very few guys on the BA top 100 lists become stars.   Tony has all four projected at 55, which is an above average regular but not a star.  None of them are rated as highly as Manny Machado, Matt Wieters, Dylan Bundy, Kevin Gausman, Nick Markakis or Adam Jones were.

Now, am I saying none of them will become a star?    Nope, there are many cases of guys who became stars when they weren’t projected to be.   But if we’re talking about rating the system, all you can go by is what is projected now.   

By the way, I’m awaiting Fangraphs’ updated rankings of the O’s players (due out soon), but at last check as the 2018 season ended they had nobody rated over 45.    BP rated Diaz at 55, Mountcastle at 50, Hays at 45 and Kremer wasn’t graded as they placed him outside the top 10.     So if anything, Tony’s grades are optimistic compared to the national outlets.    

[wildcard]

31 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I agree all four of those guys are close to the majors.   None of them really project as a future star.  Very few guys on the BA top 100 lists become stars.   Tony has all four projected at 55, which is an above average regular but not a star.  None of them are rated as highly as Manny Machado, Matt Wieters, Dylan Bundy, Kevin Gausman, Nick Markakis or Adam Jones were.

Now, am I saying none of them will become a star?    Nope, there are many cases of guys who became stars when they weren’t projected to be.   But if we’re talking about rating the system, all you can go by is what is projected now.   

By the way, I’m awaiting Fangraphs’ updated rankings of the O’s players (due out soon), but at last check as the 2018 season ended they had nobody rated over 45.    BP rated Diaz at 55, Mountcastle at 50, Hays at 45 and Kremer wasn’t graded as they placed him outside the top 10.     So if anything, Tony’s grades are optimistic compared to the national outlets.    

I rate a healthy Hays much higher than a 45.   With his arm and speed and the way he hit in 2017 his ceiling is a 60 for me.   Mouncastle is a 50 overall but a zero as far a fielding.   HIs hitting has not caught up to in potential yet IMO.  Diaz plays a good all around game.  55 is probably good for him.   Kremer is a exciting prospect.   He has only 9 starts at AA.  But he is moving up fast.  His strikeouts could improve his rating by mid season.  His 60FB and his 55 curve is a nice combo.  He needs to improve a 3rd pitch to be the starter I hope he will be.

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I rate a healthy Hays much higher than a 45.   With his arm and speed and the way he hit in 2017 his ceiling is a 60 for me.   Mouncastle is a 50 overall but a zero as far a fielding.   HIs hitting has not caught up to in potential yet IMO.  Diaz plays a good all around game.  55 is probably good for him.   Kremer is a exciting prospect.   He has only 9 starts at AA.  But he is moving up fast.  His strikeouts could improve his rating by mid season.  His 60FB and his 55 curve is a nice combo.  He needs to improve a 3rd pitch to be the starter I hope he will be.

I like all these assessments.    Like you, I haven’t given up on Hays just because he had a troubled 2018.    I do think plate discipline is an issue for him.    Overall, the Astros stressed plate discipline much more than the Orioles and actually were able to help some players address that issue, like Springer.    So, I remain optimistic on him and think that he has the highest ceiling of our position players, once fielding is factored in (pure bat it might be Mountcastle).

[wildcard]

18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I like all these assessments.    Like you, I haven’t given up on Hays just because he had a troubled 2018.    I do think plate discipline is an issue for him.    Overall, the Astros stressed plate discipline much more than the Orioles and actually were able to help some players address that issue, like Springer.    So, I remain optimistic on him and think that he has the highest ceiling of our position players, once fielding is factored in (pure bat it might be Mountcastle).

I keep reading about Mountcastle's bat but he had a 806 OPS at Bowie.  Hays had a 960 OPS when healthy at Bowie.    Mountcastle is going to have to show me more before I will say his bat is better than Hays.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I keep reading about Mountcastle's bat but he had a 806 OPS at Bowie.  Hays had a 960 OPS when healthy at Bowie.    Mountcastle is going to have to show me more before I will say his bat is better than Hays.

Hays was a little older (5 months) in 2017 than Mountcastle was last year, so you have to factor that in.   You also have to look at Hays’ poor results in the majors in ‘17 and wonder if his AA performance that year wasn’t necessarily indicative of how his skills will transfer to the majors.    With all that said, I agree Hays might turn out to have the better bat.     I think we’ll know a lot more by the end of 2019.