Rumors and News

[Frobby]

8 hours ago, atomic said:

.300 OBP is terrible.  Unless you play defense like Ozzie Smith you cant be an every day baseball player with those numbers.   

A .300 OBP is well below average, but average is only .318 these days, .313 at 2B.    

You can make up for a below average OBP by having above average SLG.   League average is .416, .388 at 2B.    So in 2015-16 when Schoop was at .482 and .454, that was well above average, enough to carry his .306/.298 OBP. 

And of course, in 2017 he was an all star with both an OBP (.334) and SLG (.503) that were way above average for a 2B or at any other position really,

So, what it really comes down to is Schoop had an awful 2018 that really hurt his value.    If he’d merely slipped to 2015-16 levels, he wouldn’t have been non-tendered.

Let’s not forget that the Brewers traded a decent established player with more service time remaining than Schoop, plus two prospects, to get Schoop.    Obviously they didn’t think he was terrible.   But he laid an egg in Milwaukee and now he is where he is.    But I bet he’ll do fine as a free agent ($6 mm or more).   

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

A .300 OBP is well below average, but average is only .318 these days, .313 at 2B.    

You can make up for a below average OBP by having above average SLG.   League average is .416, .388 at 2B.    So in 2015-16 when Schoop was at .482 and .454, that was well above average, enough to carry his .306/.298 OBP. 

And of course, in 2017 he was an all star with both an OBP (.334) and SLG (.503) that were way above average for a 2B or at any other position really,

So, what it really comes down to is Schoop had an awful 2018 that really hurt his value.    If he’d merely slipped to 2015-16 levels, he wouldn’t have been non-tendered.

Let’s not forget that the Brewers traded a decent established player with more service time remaining than Schoop, plus two prospects, to get Schoop.    Obviously they didn’t think he was terrible.   But he laid an egg in Milwaukee and now he is where he is.    But I bet he’ll do fine as a free agent ($6 mm or more).   

Yep, folks tend to over correct.

Everyone knows OBP is important these days but it isn't make or break if a player does enough other things well. 

[VaBird1]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Yep, folks tend to over correct.

Everyone knows OBP is important these days but it isn't make or break if a player does enough other things well. 

My issue with Schoop is not his offense.  He looks like a 3B playing middle infield to me.  Even with a down year he still had an OPS+ of 96.  He also is going to cost a few million more than makes sense for where the Orioles are right now.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, VaBird1 said:

My issue with Schoop is not his offense.  He looks like a 3B playing middle infield to me.  Even with a down year he still had an OPS+ of 96.  He also is going to cost a few million more than makes sense for where the Orioles are right now.

I agree that he's not a good fit for the current team.

[thezeroes]

He is a BUY LOW candidate that may be flipped at this or next years trade deadline.  His comfort is/was Baltimore and is young enough to build value IF the contract is in the $4 to $6 million range AAV for three years.  Thinking Luis Valbuena. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, thezeroes said:

He is a BUY LOW candidate that may be flipped at this or next years trade deadline.  His comfort is/was Baltimore and is young enough to build value IF the contract is in the $4 to $6 million range AAV for three years.  Thinking Luis Valbuena. 

I don't think the price is going to be that low.

I think that while the idea of signing guys and then flipping them is enticing I'm not at all sure it's practical practice.

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, thezeroes said:

He is a BUY LOW candidate that may be flipped at this or next years trade deadline.  His comfort is/was Baltimore and is young enough to build value IF the contract is in the $4 to $6 million range AAV for three years.  Thinking Luis Valbuena. 

 

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think the price is going to be that low.

I think that while the idea of signing guys and then flipping them is enticing I'm not at all sure it's practical practice.

I don’t think his price will be that low either.    And while arbitraging players might work some of the time, it’s not necessarily consistent with having a strategic plan to develop talent.   At least, it can distract from that. 

[Number5]

3 hours ago, VaBird1 said:

If they are going to be bad why not go with Nunez and Valera for this year?

Self-fulfilling prophecy?

[Ohfan67]

3 minutes ago, Number5 said:

Self-fulfilling prophecy?

Huh? The Orioles need the first pick in 2020. Why waste money? 

[Number5]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

 

I don’t think his price will be that low either.    And while arbitraging players might work some of the time, it’s not necessarily consistent with having a strategic plan to develop talent.   At least, it can distract from that. 

Interesting, though.  If he can be had for less than $6 million, it might just be the kind of bargain opportunity a rebuilding team is looking for.  He was non-tendered based on a $10 million salary, so I'm not so sure that he will get much more than $6 million.  Milwaukee's major misstep here was thinking Schoop was a MLB shortstop.  They quickly found out he wasn't.  They clearly were better off with Villar, considering their real need was a SS.  If Schoop had turned out to be the SS they thought he was, I believe that they would have kept him in the lineup and given him more of an opportunity to sort out his batting woes.

[weams]

https://nypost.com/2018/12/01/yankees-could-see-robertson-and-britton-go-to-red-sox/

[Number5]

12 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

Huh? The Orioles need the first pick in 2020. Why waste money? 

I don't think the "We are expected to be terrible, so we should do everything we can to make sure that we are" philosophy is a winning formula.  I'd rather make every effort to improve and find "market inefficiencies."  To each his own, I guess.

[TonySoprano]

8 minutes ago, weams said:

https://nypost.com/2018/12/01/yankees-could-see-robertson-and-britton-go-to-red-sox/

Well, it's doubtful they're seeking a six-year deal like Craig Kimbrel is.

[Ohfan67]

1 hour ago, Number5 said:

I don't think the "We are expected to be terrible, so we should do everything we can to make sure that we are" philosophy is a winning formula.  I'd rather make every effort to improve and find "market inefficiencies."  To each his own, I guess.

In general I agree, but not next year. The Orioles need the first pick in 2020, maybe even 2021. No need to overpay to lose 100+ games. Invest that money in international signings, analytics and other staff, etc. 

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

In general I agree, but not next year. The Orioles need the first pick in 2020, maybe even 2021. No need to overpay to lose 100+ games. Invest that money in international signings, analytics and other staff, etc. 

They need high picks sure but I don't think the rebuild will fail if they pick third instead of first.