2018 power outage

[Frobby]

2018 was the first time in 7 years that the O’s fell short of 200 homers.    In fact, the O’s 2012-17 homer totals ranged between 211-253, averaging 223 per season, while in 2018 the O’s hit just 188 homers.  Here’s a breakdown of the homers over that time, by position:

1B: 29, 51, 35, 44, 37, 35, 23

2B: 14, 15, 21, 19, 26, 31, 22

3B: 20, 16, 20, 35, 29, 34, 17

SS: 22, 26, 10, 12, 20, 15, 35

LF: 21, 16, 30, 18, 12, 14, 19

CF: 33, 34, 29, 30, 30, 27, 16

RF: 26, 10, 19, 24, 37, 21, 19

CA: 25, 23, 19, 19, 18, 31, 9

DH: 24, 21, 26, 14, 42, 23, 26

Catcher, first base and centerfield stand out as three places where our power dropped precipitously in 2018, as the team was down 45 homers from 2017 at those three positions.  SS and 3B basically flipped, due to Manny’s change of position.   

I don’t expect a resurgence in 2019; if anything, we may drop further with Manny and Schoop gone.

[ShaneDawg85]

I'm honestly amazed in retrospect it was as many as 188, considering Manny was traded with over two months left in the season, same for Schoop and who took a long time to get going when he was healthy, the offensive black hole that was Davis, and everything else under the sun.  Than again, it somehow doesn't  come as much of a surprise that they managed to hit 188 home runs while at the same time finishing dead last in the AL in runs scored, and put up one of the worst offensive seasons in team history that wasn't part of a shortened season or prior to the DH.

[wildbillhiccup]

4 minutes ago, ShaneDawg85 said:

I'm honestly amazed in retrospect it was as many as 188, considering Manny was traded with over two months left in the season, same for Schoop and who took a long time to get going when he was healthy, the offensive black hole that was Davis, and everything else under the sun.  Than again, it somehow doesn't  come as much of a surprise that they managed to hit 188 home runs while at the same time finishing dead last in the AL in runs scored, and put up one of the worst offensive seasons in team history that wasn't part of a shortened season or prior to the DH.

I was thinking the same thing. Smoke and mirrors maybe? I think poor defense and pitching contributed just as much (if not more so) to last season's debacle as the power outage. I'm really looking forward to the team taking a more well rounded approach to player development  that emphasizes ALL of the tools needed to succeed at the MLB level. Unless you're an elite hitter I think the days of "if he can hit we'll find a place for him" are over. 

[ShaneDawg85]

29 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I was thinking the same thing. Smoke and mirrors maybe? I think poor defense and pitching contributed just as much (if not more so) to last season's debacle as the power outage. I'm really looking forward to the team taking a more well rounded approach to player development  that emphasizes ALL of the tools needed to succeed at the MLB level. Unless you're an elite hitter I think the days of "if he can hit we'll find a place for him" are over. 

In further retrospect, hitting home runs was about the only thing they did well.  They were last in the league in batting average, on-base percentage, doubles, runs, walks, and second to last in hits.  I suppose we could be assured that when they did hit the ball, it went out of the park.  Oh, and they didn't completely forget that stolen bases were a thing since they finished 7th, 25% of which can be attributed to one player, Villar.  Any way you want to slice it, it was a total and collective offensive failure.  Davis was a big part of it, but he was Jupiter in the solar system of offensive failure of 2018.

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, ShaneDawg85 said:

I'm honestly amazed in retrospect it was as many as 188, considering Manny was traded with over two months left in the season, same for Schoop and who took a long time to get going when he was healthy, the offensive black hole that was Davis, and everything else under the sun.  Than again, it somehow doesn't  come as much of a surprise that they managed to hit 188 home runs while at the same time finishing dead last in the AL in runs scored, and put up one of the worst offensive seasons in team history that wasn't part of a shortened season or prior to the DH.

Put it this way: although there was a pretty drastic drop in homers, I wouldn’t say it was the biggest problem with our offense.   We still managed to be 9th in the league in homers (5 below the league average), while finishing dead last in BA and OBP.

[weams]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 Put it this way: although there was a pretty drastic drop in homers, I wouldn’t say it was the biggest problem with our offense.   We still managed to be 9th in the league in homers (5 below the league average), while finishing dead last in BA and OBP.

I think it was one of the biggest parts of the decline.  And obviously getting on base is a corollary to power. Homers drive walks. 

[Frobby]

Just now, weams said:

I think it was one of the biggest parts of the decline.  And obviously getting on base is a corollary to power. Homers drive walks. 

Then why have the Orioles been near the top in homers but near the bottom in walks for many years?   The O’s had 30 more walks in 2018 than 2017, despite dropping in homers by 45.   Homers only correlate with walks if you are disciplined enough to take a walk.   

[weams]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Then why have the Orioles been near the top in homers but near the bottom in walks for many years?   The O’s had 30 more walks in 2018 than 2017, despite dropping in homers by 45.   Homers only correlate with walks if you are disciplined enough to take a walk.   

You sure can't walk without being short or having power. 

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, weams said:

You sure can't walk without being short or having power. 

Nick Markakis averages about 65 walks a year despite hitting 20 homers only twice in his career (none in the last 10 years).   

I look at it this way:   If you have a lot of power, pitchers will nibble more.    If you are disciplined, that nibbling will lead to more walks.   It also leads to more favorable counts, and if the batter waits for the better pitches that come in those counts, their chances of utilizing their power to put the ball over the fence increases.    So, homers and walks can be quite complementary that way, if you are Mike Trout or Joey Votto or Bryce Harper or Aaron Judge.

But if you don’t lay off when the pitcher nibbles, the walks go down, the pitchers keep nibbling and your power is mostly wasted because you’re swinging at pitches where you can’t utilize your power.    And if the whole team is doing it, there’s fewer runners on base when somebody does connect with the long ball.

[weams]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Nick Markakis averages about 65 walks a year despite hitting 20 homers only twice in his career (none in the last 10 years).   

I look at it this way:   If you have a lot of power, pitchers will nibble more.    If you are disciplined, that nibbling will lead to more walks.   It also leads to more favorable counts, and if the batter waits for the better pitches that come in those counts, their chances of utilizing their power to put the ball over the fence increases.    So, homers and walks can be quite complementary that way, if you are Mike Trout or Joey Votto or Bryce Harper or Aaron Judge.

But if you don’t lay off when the pitcher nibbles, the walks go down, the pitchers keep nibbling and your power is mostly wasted because you’re swinging at pitches where you can’t utilize your power.    And if the whole team is doing it, there’s fewer runners on base when somebody does connect with the long ball.

I would not disagree with you too much there. Maybe Nick's reputation of having some power helped him even when he went outage. 

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Nick Markakis averages about 65 walks a year despite hitting 20 homers only twice in his career (none in the last 10 years).   

I look at it this way:   If you have a lot of power, pitchers will nibble more.    If you are disciplined, that nibbling will lead to more walks.   It also leads to more favorable counts, and if the batter waits for the better pitches that come in those counts, their chances of utilizing their power to put the ball over the fence increases.    So, homers and walks can be quite complementary that way, if you are Mike Trout or Joey Votto or Bryce Harper or Aaron Judge.

But if you don’t lay off when the pitcher nibbles, the walks go down, the pitchers keep nibbling and your power is mostly wasted because you’re swinging at pitches where you can’t utilize your power.    And if the whole team is doing it, there’s fewer runners on base when somebody does connect with the long ball.

I think Weams is looking more at someone like Joey Rickard who had 228 walks in 1752 PA in the minors but only 42 walks in 789 ML PA.

[weams]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think Weams is looking more at someone like Joey Rickard who had 228 walks in 1752 PA in the minors but only 42 walks in 789 ML PA.

He is one of thousands of examples. If you ain't got the stroke,  pitcher's think you're a joke. 

[weams]

I think people think a disciplined version of Billy Hamilton is the MLB player of the future when it is really "No Neck" Trout. 

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, weams said:

I would not disagree with you too much there. Maybe Nick's reputation of having some power helped him even when he went outage. 

Some guys just have the knack.   In addition to Nick (14 HR, 72 BB) there’s Cesar Hernandez (15, 95), Josh Bell (12, 77), Lorenzo Cain (10, 71), Brett Gardner (12, 65), Brian Anderson (11, 62), Ben Zobrist (9, 55), and Tucker Barnhart (10, 54).     All guys who are well above average in walks, homer only occasionally and who walked at least five times as often as they homered.    But don’t get me wrong, if you look at the walk leaders you’ll find a lot of guys who homer a lot.    

[foxfield]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Put it this way: although there was a pretty drastic drop in homers, I wouldn’t say it was the biggest problem with our offense.   We still managed to be 9th in the league in homers (5 below the league average), while finishing dead last in BA and OBP.

I agree with this.  It was not the biggest problem.

2 hours ago, weams said:

I think it was one of the biggest parts of the decline.  And obviously getting on base is a corollary to power. Homers drive walks. 

I think Weams, what the drop in homers did was expose the other weaknesses that were there.  We don't walk a lot as a team and didn't during the period of excellence 2012-2016.  We mashed and mashed a lot.  But we k'd a lot.  I would say that our power drop exposed our weakness to do lots of things offensively.  On the plus side we can build on the running game.

Sucking sucks.  But watching something get whittled out of a piece of wheat could be real fun.  We are just gonna have to have lots of patience.  And patience.